{smcl}
{com}{sf}{ul off}{txt}{.-}
      name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}C:\Users\mzarit\Documents\Pitt\Krause\December 2016 Work\Log files\Krause_Zarit_Manuscript Models Sans Time Effects_11 29 2016.smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}opened on:  {res}29 Nov 2016, 10:19:55

{com}. do "C:\Users\mzarit\AppData\Local\Temp\STD0p000000.tmp"
{txt}
{com}. 
. set more off
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. tsset state_fips year, yearly
{res}{txt}{col 8}panel variable:  {res}state_fips (unbalanced)
{txt}{col 9}time variable:  {res}{col 25}year, 1942 to 2010
{txt}{col 17}delta:  {res}1 year
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. preserve
{txt}
{com}. 
. *************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. *****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *** I.A: NON-SOUTHERN STATES (N = 35): FULL TIME PERIOD (1942 - 2010): BIVARIATE DYNAMIC PANEL ARDL(4,3)--ECM REGRESSION MODELS OF STATE REAL PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME [real_pc_inc_ann] /// 
> ///       & STATE klarnerranney INDEX FOR PARTISAN COMPETITION IN LEGISLATURE/REPRESENTATIVE ASSEMBLIES [klarnerranney] WITH TWO-WAY FIXED EFFECTS [STATE AND TIME UNIT EFFECTS]  ***
> 
. 
. 
. 
. // (4,3)  MODEL
. 
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. 
. qui reg d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work  l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_total l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified i.state_fips  if nonsouth==1
{txt}
{com}. 
. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 63}
       Model {c |}        Obs  ll(null)  ll(model)      df         AIC        BIC
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 63}
{ralign 12:.}{col 14}{c |}{res}{col 16}     2,230{col 27}-16556.11{col 38}-16332.18{col 49}    57{col 58} 32778.37{col 69} 33103.82
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 63}
{p 15 21 2}
Note: N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see {helpb bic_note:[R] BIC note}.
{p_end}

{com}. 
. 
. ******INCOME EQUATION*********
. 
. newey d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work  l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_total l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified i.state_fips  if nonsouth==1, lag(8) force

{txt}Regression with Newey-West standard errors{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,230
{txt}maximum lag: {res}8{col 49}{txt}F( 56,      2173){col 67}= {res}      6.00
{col 49}{txt}Prob > F{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 21}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 22}{c |}{col 34}  Newey-West
{col 1}   D.real_pc_inc_ann{col 22}{c |}      Coef.{col 34}   Std. Err.{col 46}      t{col 54}   P>|t|{col 62}     [95% Con{col 75}f. Interval]
{hline 21}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.0011815{col 34}{space 2} .0038161{col 45}{space 1}   -0.31{col 54}{space 3}0.757{col 62}{space 4} -.008665{col 75}{space 3} .0063021
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.0707749{col 34}{space 2} .5799298{col 45}{space 1}   -0.12{col 54}{space 3}0.903{col 62}{space 4} -1.20805{col 75}{space 3}   1.0665
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} .2922014{col 34}{space 2} .0343883{col 45}{space 1}    8.50{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4} .2247641{col 75}{space 3} .3596388
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}D1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-1.446725{col 34}{space 2} .9796191{col 45}{space 1}   -1.48{col 54}{space 3}0.140{col 62}{space 4}-3.367813{col 75}{space 3} .4743633
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 16}L2D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.0907754{col 34}{space 2} .0337495{col 45}{space 1}   -2.69{col 54}{space 3}0.007{col 62}{space 4}-.1569601{col 75}{space 3}-.0245908
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 1.444101{col 34}{space 2} .9070365{col 45}{space 1}    1.59{col 54}{space 3}0.112{col 62}{space 4}-.3346481{col 75}{space 3} 3.222851
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 16}L3D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.1207412{col 34}{space 2} .0301255{col 45}{space 1}   -4.01{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4} -.179819{col 75}{space 3}-.0616633
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 16}L2D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.0618787{col 34}{space 2}  .856907{col 45}{space 1}   -0.07{col 54}{space 3}0.942{col 62}{space 4}-1.742322{col 75}{space 3} 1.618564
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
csi_perc_cap_outlays {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 717.7901{col 34}{space 2} 188.7313{col 45}{space 1}    3.80{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4} 347.6773{col 75}{space 3} 1087.903
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-731.3995{col 34}{space 2} 332.3759{col 45}{space 1}   -2.20{col 54}{space 3}0.028{col 62}{space 4}-1383.207{col 75}{space 3}-79.59172
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}right_to_work {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-58.05999{col 34}{space 2} 45.01602{col 45}{space 1}   -1.29{col 54}{space 3}0.197{col 62}{space 4}-146.3389{col 75}{space 3} 30.21897
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 198.1792{col 34}{space 2} 185.6743{col 45}{space 1}    1.07{col 54}{space 3}0.286{col 62}{space 4}-165.9386{col 75}{space 3} 562.2969
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 1}csi_welf_perc_total {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}  571.508{col 34}{space 2} 230.0648{col 45}{space 1}    2.48{col 54}{space 3}0.013{col 62}{space 4}  120.338{col 75}{space 3} 1022.678
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-574.2837{col 34}{space 2} 616.1483{col 45}{space 1}   -0.93{col 54}{space 3}0.351{col 62}{space 4}-1782.585{col 75}{space 3} 634.0177
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}nonfarm_persinc {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 1985.214{col 34}{space 2} 276.7266{col 45}{space 1}    7.17{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4} 1442.538{col 75}{space 3}  2527.89
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 6707.466{col 34}{space 2} 789.8352{col 45}{space 1}    8.49{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4} 5158.555{col 75}{space 3} 8256.378
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 11}gov_party {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 1.904656{col 34}{space 2} 26.23061{col 45}{space 1}    0.07{col 54}{space 3}0.942{col 62}{space 4}-49.53504{col 75}{space 3} 53.34435
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-15.19746{col 34}{space 2} 31.54811{col 45}{space 1}   -0.48{col 54}{space 3}0.630{col 62}{space 4}-77.06507{col 75}{space 3} 46.67016
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 9}dem_unified {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 3.235288{col 34}{space 2} 27.69244{col 45}{space 1}    0.12{col 54}{space 3}0.907{col 62}{space 4}-51.07114{col 75}{space 3} 57.54172
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 17.94508{col 34}{space 2} 30.70016{col 45}{space 1}    0.58{col 54}{space 3}0.559{col 62}{space 4}-42.25966{col 75}{space 3} 78.14981
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 9}rep_unified {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 19.68822{col 34}{space 2} 25.97695{col 45}{space 1}    0.76{col 54}{space 3}0.449{col 62}{space 4}-31.25404{col 75}{space 3} 70.63047
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-85.94109{col 34}{space 2} 36.02004{col 45}{space 1}   -2.39{col 54}{space 3}0.017{col 62}{space 4}-156.5784{col 75}{space 3}-15.30375
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 10}state_fips {c |}
{space 18}4  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 21.71556{col 34}{space 2} 107.4243{col 45}{space 1}    0.20{col 54}{space 3}0.840{col 62}{space 4}-188.9495{col 75}{space 3} 232.3806
{txt}{space 18}6  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-11.30295{col 34}{space 2} 105.9231{col 45}{space 1}   -0.11{col 54}{space 3}0.915{col 62}{space 4}-219.0242{col 75}{space 3} 196.4183
{txt}{space 18}8  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-6.989132{col 34}{space 2} 113.4258{col 45}{space 1}   -0.06{col 54}{space 3}0.951{col 62}{space 4}-229.4236{col 75}{space 3} 215.4453
{txt}{space 18}9  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}  24.3941{col 34}{space 2} 115.8843{col 45}{space 1}    0.21{col 54}{space 3}0.833{col 62}{space 4}-202.8616{col 75}{space 3} 251.6498
{txt}{space 17}10  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-29.70285{col 34}{space 2} 106.4427{col 45}{space 1}   -0.28{col 54}{space 3}0.780{col 62}{space 4}-238.4429{col 75}{space 3} 179.0372
{txt}{space 17}15  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 27.67681{col 34}{space 2} 125.5895{col 45}{space 1}    0.22{col 54}{space 3}0.826{col 62}{space 4}-218.6112{col 75}{space 3} 273.9648
{txt}{space 17}16  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 81.05411{col 34}{space 2} 114.1025{col 45}{space 1}    0.71{col 54}{space 3}0.478{col 62}{space 4}-142.7073{col 75}{space 3} 304.8155
{txt}{space 17}17  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-36.60941{col 34}{space 2} 104.6772{col 45}{space 1}   -0.35{col 54}{space 3}0.727{col 62}{space 4}-241.8873{col 75}{space 3} 168.6684
{txt}{space 17}18  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-28.19255{col 34}{space 2} 106.3287{col 45}{space 1}   -0.27{col 54}{space 3}0.791{col 62}{space 4}-236.7092{col 75}{space 3} 180.3241
{txt}{space 17}19  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}  162.391{col 34}{space 2} 114.7871{col 45}{space 1}    1.41{col 54}{space 3}0.157{col 62}{space 4} -62.7129{col 75}{space 3} 387.4948
{txt}{space 17}20  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 64.13702{col 34}{space 2}  112.698{col 45}{space 1}    0.57{col 54}{space 3}0.569{col 62}{space 4}-156.8702{col 75}{space 3} 285.1442
{txt}{space 17}23  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-27.53774{col 34}{space 2} 105.6314{col 45}{space 1}   -0.26{col 54}{space 3}0.794{col 62}{space 4}-234.6868{col 75}{space 3} 179.6113
{txt}{space 17}24  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 27.13344{col 34}{space 2}  109.453{col 45}{space 1}    0.25{col 54}{space 3}0.804{col 62}{space 4}  -187.51{col 75}{space 3} 241.7769
{txt}{space 17}25  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} .7024846{col 34}{space 2} 114.9111{col 45}{space 1}    0.01{col 54}{space 3}0.995{col 62}{space 4}-224.6447{col 75}{space 3} 226.0496
{txt}{space 17}26  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-37.62656{col 34}{space 2} 108.7063{col 45}{space 1}   -0.35{col 54}{space 3}0.729{col 62}{space 4}-250.8057{col 75}{space 3} 175.5526
{txt}{space 17}27  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 93.00983{col 34}{space 2} 105.6273{col 45}{space 1}    0.88{col 54}{space 3}0.379{col 62}{space 4}-114.1313{col 75}{space 3}  300.151
{txt}{space 17}29  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-45.99725{col 34}{space 2} 105.1479{col 45}{space 1}   -0.44{col 54}{space 3}0.662{col 62}{space 4}-252.1981{col 75}{space 3} 160.2036
{txt}{space 17}30  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 47.31638{col 34}{space 2} 111.7729{col 45}{space 1}    0.42{col 54}{space 3}0.672{col 62}{space 4}-171.8766{col 75}{space 3} 266.5094
{txt}{space 17}32  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 7.622975{col 34}{space 2} 118.3271{col 45}{space 1}    0.06{col 54}{space 3}0.949{col 62}{space 4}-224.4232{col 75}{space 3} 239.6692
{txt}{space 17}33  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-12.51054{col 34}{space 2}  110.021{col 45}{space 1}   -0.11{col 54}{space 3}0.909{col 62}{space 4}-228.2679{col 75}{space 3} 203.2468
{txt}{space 17}34  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 18.79806{col 34}{space 2} 110.7993{col 45}{space 1}    0.17{col 54}{space 3}0.865{col 62}{space 4}-198.4855{col 75}{space 3} 236.0816
{txt}{space 17}35  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 9.205635{col 34}{space 2}  102.163{col 45}{space 1}    0.09{col 54}{space 3}0.928{col 62}{space 4}-191.1419{col 75}{space 3} 209.5531
{txt}{space 17}36  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-20.07351{col 34}{space 2} 110.4898{col 45}{space 1}   -0.18{col 54}{space 3}0.856{col 62}{space 4}-236.7502{col 75}{space 3} 196.6032
{txt}{space 17}38  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 258.2005{col 34}{space 2} 138.5011{col 45}{space 1}    1.86{col 54}{space 3}0.062{col 62}{space 4}-13.40789{col 75}{space 3}  529.809
{txt}{space 17}39  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} -52.3361{col 34}{space 2} 104.9129{col 45}{space 1}   -0.50{col 54}{space 3}0.618{col 62}{space 4}-258.0762{col 75}{space 3}  153.404
{txt}{space 17}41  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-1.287272{col 34}{space 2} 105.3403{col 45}{space 1}   -0.01{col 54}{space 3}0.990{col 62}{space 4}-207.8655{col 75}{space 3} 205.2909
{txt}{space 17}42  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-34.60713{col 34}{space 2} 105.1694{col 45}{space 1}   -0.33{col 54}{space 3}0.742{col 62}{space 4}-240.8502{col 75}{space 3} 171.6359
{txt}{space 17}44  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-42.87136{col 34}{space 2} 108.4326{col 45}{space 1}   -0.40{col 54}{space 3}0.693{col 62}{space 4}-255.5138{col 75}{space 3} 169.7711
{txt}{space 17}46  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 213.8146{col 34}{space 2} 130.4453{col 45}{space 1}    1.64{col 54}{space 3}0.101{col 62}{space 4}-41.99588{col 75}{space 3} 469.6251
{txt}{space 17}49  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-7.194427{col 34}{space 2} 111.3592{col 45}{space 1}   -0.06{col 54}{space 3}0.948{col 62}{space 4} -225.576{col 75}{space 3} 211.1872
{txt}{space 17}50  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 29.13939{col 34}{space 2} 104.4733{col 45}{space 1}    0.28{col 54}{space 3}0.780{col 62}{space 4}-175.7387{col 75}{space 3} 234.0174
{txt}{space 17}53  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 21.75574{col 34}{space 2} 104.8505{col 45}{space 1}    0.21{col 54}{space 3}0.836{col 62}{space 4}-183.8621{col 75}{space 3} 227.3736
{txt}{space 17}55  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 34.67206{col 34}{space 2} 105.1527{col 45}{space 1}    0.33{col 54}{space 3}0.742{col 62}{space 4}-171.5383{col 75}{space 3} 240.8824
{txt}{space 17}56  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 94.10974{col 34}{space 2} 129.2394{col 45}{space 1}    0.73{col 54}{space 3}0.467{col 62}{space 4}-159.3359{col 75}{space 3} 347.5554
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 15}_cons {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-1939.206{col 34}{space 2} 273.5649{col 45}{space 1}   -7.09{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4}-2475.682{col 75}{space 3}-1402.729
{txt}{hline 21}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. predict real_pc_inc_annhatallfull if nonsouth==1
{txt}(option xb assumed; fitted values)
(1,109 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TESTING INCOME ERROR CORRECTION RATE *
. 
. test l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  1,  2173) ={res}    0.10
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.7569
{txt}
{com}. 
. * TESTING THE LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT *
. 
. testnl _b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] = 0

{col 3}{txt}(1){res}{col 8}{bind:_b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] = 0}

{txt}{ralign 22:chi2({res:1})} =  {res}      0.01
{txt}{ralign 22:Prob > chi2} =  {res}      0.9060{txt}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. 
. * TESTING INCOME FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY) *
. 
. test l.real_pc_inc_ann = l.klarnerranney = 0

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.real_pc_inc_ann - L.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}
{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 2)}{space 1} L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  2,  2173) ={res}    0.05
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.9495
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *
. 
. lincom  d.klarnerranney +  l.d.klarnerranney +  l2.d.klarnerranney 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}D.klarnerranney + LD.klarnerranney + L2D.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}real_pc_in~n{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}(1) {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0645021{col 26}{space 2} 1.550994{col 37}{space 1}   -0.04{col 46}{space 3}0.967{col 54}{space 4}-3.106088{col 67}{space 3} 2.977084
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *
. 
. nlcom _b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] 

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}_b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}real_pc_in~n{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -59.9033{col 26}{space 2} 507.4302{col 37}{space 1}   -0.12{col 46}{space 3}0.906{col 54}{space 4}-1054.448{col 67}{space 3} 934.6416
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
.  
. 
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. 
. 
. qui reg d.klarnerranney  l.klarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.klarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.klarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.klarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l4.d.klarnerranney l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1  i.state_fips  if nonsouth==1
{txt}
{com}. 
. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 63}
       Model {c |}        Obs  ll(null)  ll(model)      df         AIC        BIC
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 63}
{ralign 12:.}{col 14}{c |}{res}{col 16}     2,196{col 27}-8271.919{col 38}-8070.205{col 49}    53{col 58} 16246.41{col 69} 16548.21
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 63}
{p 15 21 2}
Note: N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see {helpb bic_note:[R] BIC note}.
{p_end}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. ******PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********
. 
. 
. newey d.klarnerranney  l.klarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.klarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.klarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.klarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l4.d.klarnerranney l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1  i.state_fips  if nonsouth==1, lag(8) force

{txt}Regression with Newey-West standard errors{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,196
{txt}maximum lag: {res}8{col 49}{txt}F( 52,      2143){col 67}= {res}      5.13
{col 49}{txt}Prob > F{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 17}{c |}{col 29}  Newey-West
{col 1}D.klarnerranney{col 17}{c |}      Coef.{col 29}   Std. Err.{col 41}      t{col 49}   P>|t|{col 57}     [95% Con{col 70}f. Interval]
{hline 16}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 2}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.1376229{col 29}{space 2}  .017182{col 40}{space 1}   -8.01{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} -.171318{col 70}{space 3}-.1039278
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0000256{col 29}{space 2} .0000576{col 40}{space 1}    0.44{col 49}{space 3}0.657{col 57}{space 4}-.0000875{col 70}{space 3} .0001386
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 2}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  .047103{col 29}{space 2} .0136123{col 40}{space 1}    3.46{col 49}{space 3}0.001{col 57}{space 4} .0204082{col 70}{space 3} .0737978
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 12}D1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0006085{col 29}{space 2} .0006144{col 40}{space 1}   -0.99{col 49}{space 3}0.322{col 57}{space 4}-.0018134{col 70}{space 3} .0005965
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 2}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 11}L2D. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.2557262{col 29}{space 2} .0426348{col 40}{space 1}   -6.00{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.3393361{col 70}{space 3}-.1721163
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0006642{col 29}{space 2} .0006724{col 40}{space 1}    0.99{col 49}{space 3}0.323{col 57}{space 4}-.0006544{col 70}{space 3} .0019829
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 2}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 11}L3D. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0098836{col 29}{space 2} .0104947{col 40}{space 1}    0.94{col 49}{space 3}0.346{col 57}{space 4}-.0106974{col 70}{space 3} .0304645
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 11}L2D. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0000415{col 29}{space 2} .0006589{col 40}{space 1}   -0.06{col 49}{space 3}0.950{col 57}{space 4}-.0013337{col 70}{space 3} .0012506
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 2}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 11}L4D. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.1033496{col 29}{space 2}  .037081{col 40}{space 1}   -2.79{col 49}{space 3}0.005{col 57}{space 4}-.1760681{col 70}{space 3}-.0306311
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 11}L3D. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} -.001421{col 29}{space 2} .0007632{col 40}{space 1}   -1.86{col 49}{space 3}0.063{col 57}{space 4}-.0029177{col 70}{space 3} .0000757
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 6}gov_party {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  .062831{col 29}{space 2} .6105693{col 40}{space 1}    0.10{col 49}{space 3}0.918{col 57}{space 4}-1.134539{col 70}{space 3} 1.260201
{txt}{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0206667{col 29}{space 2} .4464687{col 40}{space 1}   -0.05{col 49}{space 3}0.963{col 57}{space 4}-.8962237{col 70}{space 3} .8548903
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 4}dem_unified {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .7881645{col 29}{space 2} .9451449{col 40}{space 1}    0.83{col 49}{space 3}0.404{col 57}{space 4}-1.065332{col 70}{space 3} 2.641661
{txt}{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.4745626{col 29}{space 2} .6056703{col 40}{space 1}   -0.78{col 49}{space 3}0.433{col 57}{space 4}-1.662325{col 70}{space 3} .7132002
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 4}rep_unified {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 1.377882{col 29}{space 2} .7743046{col 40}{space 1}    1.78{col 49}{space 3}0.075{col 57}{space 4} -.140585{col 70}{space 3} 2.896349
{txt}{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-1.255412{col 29}{space 2} .5150593{col 40}{space 1}   -2.44{col 49}{space 3}0.015{col 57}{space 4} -2.26548{col 70}{space 3}-.2453435
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 1}electedjudges1 {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0728242{col 29}{space 2} .8267498{col 40}{space 1}   -0.09{col 49}{space 3}0.930{col 57}{space 4} -1.69414{col 70}{space 3} 1.548491
{txt}{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-2.539312{col 29}{space 2} 2.770071{col 40}{space 1}   -0.92{col 49}{space 3}0.359{col 57}{space 4}-7.971619{col 70}{space 3} 2.892995
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 5}state_fips {c |}
{space 13}4  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-1.456928{col 29}{space 2} 1.633546{col 40}{space 1}   -0.89{col 49}{space 3}0.373{col 57}{space 4}-4.660428{col 70}{space 3} 1.746572
{txt}{space 13}6  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} -1.30163{col 29}{space 2} 1.593378{col 40}{space 1}   -0.82{col 49}{space 3}0.414{col 57}{space 4}-4.426358{col 70}{space 3} 1.823098
{txt}{space 13}8  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.1571147{col 29}{space 2} 1.564221{col 40}{space 1}   -0.10{col 49}{space 3}0.920{col 57}{space 4}-3.224665{col 70}{space 3} 2.910435
{txt}{space 13}9  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-1.735947{col 29}{space 2} 1.754265{col 40}{space 1}   -0.99{col 49}{space 3}0.323{col 57}{space 4}-5.176186{col 70}{space 3} 1.704292
{txt}{space 12}10  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.3880822{col 29}{space 2} 1.648101{col 40}{space 1}   -0.24{col 49}{space 3}0.814{col 57}{space 4}-3.620126{col 70}{space 3} 2.843961
{txt}{space 12}15  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} -7.38551{col 29}{space 2} 1.880583{col 40}{space 1}   -3.93{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-11.07347{col 70}{space 3}-3.697552
{txt}{space 12}16  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-3.901936{col 29}{space 2} 2.102533{col 40}{space 1}   -1.86{col 49}{space 3}0.064{col 57}{space 4}-8.025154{col 70}{space 3} .2212815
{txt}{space 12}17  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .3761415{col 29}{space 2} 1.470005{col 40}{space 1}    0.26{col 49}{space 3}0.798{col 57}{space 4}-2.506643{col 70}{space 3} 3.258926
{txt}{space 12}18  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.7769858{col 29}{space 2} 1.648281{col 40}{space 1}   -0.47{col 49}{space 3}0.637{col 57}{space 4}-4.009382{col 70}{space 3}  2.45541
{txt}{space 12}19  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-1.031251{col 29}{space 2} 1.710192{col 40}{space 1}   -0.60{col 49}{space 3}0.547{col 57}{space 4}-4.385061{col 70}{space 3} 2.322558
{txt}{space 12}20  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-2.615028{col 29}{space 2} 1.748757{col 40}{space 1}   -1.50{col 49}{space 3}0.135{col 57}{space 4}-6.044466{col 70}{space 3}  .814411
{txt}{space 12}23  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.5898062{col 29}{space 2} 1.820443{col 40}{space 1}   -0.32{col 49}{space 3}0.746{col 57}{space 4}-4.159825{col 70}{space 3} 2.980212
{txt}{space 12}24  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-5.986893{col 29}{space 2} 1.965431{col 40}{space 1}   -3.05{col 49}{space 3}0.002{col 57}{space 4}-9.841244{col 70}{space 3}-2.132542
{txt}{space 12}25  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-5.262537{col 29}{space 2} 1.966664{col 40}{space 1}   -2.68{col 49}{space 3}0.008{col 57}{space 4}-9.119307{col 70}{space 3}-1.405767
{txt}{space 12}26  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0577227{col 29}{space 2} 1.821364{col 40}{space 1}    0.03{col 49}{space 3}0.975{col 57}{space 4}-3.514102{col 70}{space 3} 3.629547
{txt}{space 12}27  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.5223538{col 29}{space 2} 1.801251{col 40}{space 1}   -0.29{col 49}{space 3}0.772{col 57}{space 4}-4.054736{col 70}{space 3} 3.010028
{txt}{space 12}29  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-2.156738{col 29}{space 2} 1.709119{col 40}{space 1}   -1.26{col 49}{space 3}0.207{col 57}{space 4}-5.508442{col 70}{space 3} 1.194967
{txt}{space 12}30  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  .280276{col 29}{space 2} 1.603925{col 40}{space 1}    0.17{col 49}{space 3}0.861{col 57}{space 4}-2.865135{col 70}{space 3} 3.425687
{txt}{space 12}32  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.1166111{col 29}{space 2} 2.095418{col 40}{space 1}   -0.06{col 49}{space 3}0.956{col 57}{space 4}-4.225877{col 70}{space 3} 3.992654
{txt}{space 12}33  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-2.928275{col 29}{space 2} 1.736237{col 40}{space 1}   -1.69{col 49}{space 3}0.092{col 57}{space 4} -6.33316{col 70}{space 3} .4766094
{txt}{space 12}34  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-1.107082{col 29}{space 2} 1.745885{col 40}{space 1}   -0.63{col 49}{space 3}0.526{col 57}{space 4}-4.530887{col 70}{space 3} 2.316723
{txt}{space 12}35  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-2.435426{col 29}{space 2} 1.985221{col 40}{space 1}   -1.23{col 49}{space 3}0.220{col 57}{space 4}-6.328587{col 70}{space 3} 1.457735
{txt}{space 12}36  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  .408278{col 29}{space 2} 1.489497{col 40}{space 1}    0.27{col 49}{space 3}0.784{col 57}{space 4}-2.512731{col 70}{space 3} 3.329287
{txt}{space 12}38  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  -3.0423{col 29}{space 2} 2.394912{col 40}{space 1}   -1.27{col 49}{space 3}0.204{col 57}{space 4}-7.738894{col 70}{space 3} 1.654293
{txt}{space 12}39  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-1.060655{col 29}{space 2} 1.819262{col 40}{space 1}   -0.58{col 49}{space 3}0.560{col 57}{space 4}-4.628358{col 70}{space 3} 2.507048
{txt}{space 12}41  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0291014{col 29}{space 2}  1.89484{col 40}{space 1}   -0.02{col 49}{space 3}0.988{col 57}{space 4}-3.745019{col 70}{space 3} 3.686816
{txt}{space 12}42  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .4386312{col 29}{space 2} 1.528185{col 40}{space 1}    0.29{col 49}{space 3}0.774{col 57}{space 4}-2.558249{col 70}{space 3} 3.435511
{txt}{space 12}44  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-5.784857{col 29}{space 2} 1.888479{col 40}{space 1}   -3.06{col 49}{space 3}0.002{col 57}{space 4}  -9.4883{col 70}{space 3}-2.081413
{txt}{space 12}46  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-3.369172{col 29}{space 2}  2.11587{col 40}{space 1}   -1.59{col 49}{space 3}0.111{col 57}{space 4}-7.518545{col 70}{space 3} .7802015
{txt}{space 12}49  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-2.741675{col 29}{space 2} 2.079232{col 40}{space 1}   -1.32{col 49}{space 3}0.187{col 57}{space 4}-6.819198{col 70}{space 3} 1.335848
{txt}{space 12}50  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-2.223972{col 29}{space 2} 1.939902{col 40}{space 1}   -1.15{col 49}{space 3}0.252{col 57}{space 4}-6.028258{col 70}{space 3} 1.580314
{txt}{space 12}53  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .3062652{col 29}{space 2} 1.780918{col 40}{space 1}    0.17{col 49}{space 3}0.863{col 57}{space 4}-3.186243{col 70}{space 3} 3.798774
{txt}{space 12}55  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0373009{col 29}{space 2} 1.733033{col 40}{space 1}   -0.02{col 49}{space 3}0.983{col 57}{space 4}-3.435903{col 70}{space 3} 3.361301
{txt}{space 12}56  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-3.101411{col 29}{space 2} 1.690378{col 40}{space 1}   -1.83{col 49}{space 3}0.067{col 57}{space 4}-6.416364{col 70}{space 3}  .213542
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 10}_cons {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 11.38881{col 29}{space 2} 2.042413{col 40}{space 1}    5.58{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}  7.38349{col 70}{space 3} 15.39413
{txt}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. predict klarnerranneyhatallfull if nonsouth==1
{txt}(option xb assumed; fitted values)
(1,143 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *
. 
. test l.klarnerranney = 0 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  1,  2143) ={res}   64.16
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0000
{txt}
{com}. 
. * TESTING THE LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT *
. 
. testnl _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.klarnerranney] = 0

{col 3}{txt}(1){res}{col 8}{bind:_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.klarnerranney] = 0}

{txt}{ralign 22:chi2({res:1})} =  {res}      0.20
{txt}{ralign 22:Prob > chi2} =  {res}      0.6537{txt}

{com}. 
. 
. * TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY) *
. 
. test l.klarnerranney = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.klarnerranney - L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}
{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 2)}{space 1} L.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  2,  2143) ={res}   33.10
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0000
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *
. 
. lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}D.real_pc_inc_ann + LD.real_pc_inc_ann + L2D.real_pc_inc_ann + L3D.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}klarnerran~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}(1) {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0014067{col 26}{space 2} .0011229{col 37}{space 1}   -1.25{col 46}{space 3}0.210{col 54}{space 4}-.0036088{col 67}{space 3} .0007953
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. * TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *
. 
. nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.klarnerranney]

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.klarnerranney]

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}klarnerran~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0001858{col 26}{space 2} .0004141{col 37}{space 1}    0.45{col 46}{space 3}0.654{col 54}{space 4}-.0006258{col 67}{space 3} .0009973
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. 
. 
. 
. 
. // (5,4)  MODEL
. 
. 
. 
. *** I.B: NON-SOUTHERN STATES (N = 35): PRE-PARTISAN ALIGNMENT TIME PERIOD (1942 -1980) ***
. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. qui reg d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney  l4.d.real_pc_inc_ann l3.d.klarnerranney l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work  l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_total l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified  i.state_fips  if year <=1980 & nonsouth==1
{txt}
{com}. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 63}
       Model {c |}        Obs  ll(null)  ll(model)      df         AIC        BIC
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 63}
{ralign 12:.}{col 14}{c |}{res}{col 16}     1,148{col 27}-8508.191{col 38}-8342.586{col 49}    59{col 58} 16803.17{col 69} 17100.87
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 63}
{p 15 21 2}
Note: N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see {helpb bic_note:[R] BIC note}.
{p_end}

{com}. 
. 
. ******INCOME EQUATION*********
. 
. 
. newey d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney  l4.d.real_pc_inc_ann l3.d.klarnerranney l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work  l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_total l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified  i.state_fips  if year <=1980 & nonsouth==1, lag(6) force

{txt}Regression with Newey-West standard errors{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     1,148
{txt}maximum lag: {res}6{col 49}{txt}F( 58,      1089){col 67}= {res}      5.00
{col 49}{txt}Prob > F{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 21}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 22}{c |}{col 34}  Newey-West
{col 1}   D.real_pc_inc_ann{col 22}{c |}      Coef.{col 34}   Std. Err.{col 46}      t{col 54}   P>|t|{col 62}     [95% Con{col 75}f. Interval]
{hline 21}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.0177616{col 34}{space 2} .0098258{col 45}{space 1}   -1.81{col 54}{space 3}0.071{col 62}{space 4}-.0370413{col 75}{space 3}  .001518
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} .0778087{col 34}{space 2} .8426972{col 45}{space 1}    0.09{col 54}{space 3}0.926{col 62}{space 4}-1.575685{col 75}{space 3} 1.731303
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} .2986954{col 34}{space 2} .0581507{col 45}{space 1}    5.14{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4} .1845952{col 75}{space 3} .4127955
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}D1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-1.442973{col 34}{space 2} 1.125089{col 45}{space 1}   -1.28{col 54}{space 3}0.200{col 62}{space 4} -3.65056{col 75}{space 3} .7646142
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 16}L2D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.1792967{col 34}{space 2} .0454143{col 45}{space 1}   -3.95{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4}-.2684061{col 75}{space 3}-.0901873
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 1.631046{col 34}{space 2}  1.16432{col 45}{space 1}    1.40{col 54}{space 3}0.162{col 62}{space 4}-.6535185{col 75}{space 3} 3.915611
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 16}L3D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} -.066848{col 34}{space 2} .0382113{col 45}{space 1}   -1.75{col 54}{space 3}0.080{col 62}{space 4}-.1418241{col 75}{space 3}  .008128
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 16}L2D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.3327693{col 34}{space 2} 1.013863{col 45}{space 1}   -0.33{col 54}{space 3}0.743{col 62}{space 4}-2.322115{col 75}{space 3} 1.656576
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 16}L4D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.0161035{col 34}{space 2} .0364327{col 45}{space 1}   -0.44{col 54}{space 3}0.659{col 62}{space 4}-.0875898{col 75}{space 3} .0553828
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 16}L3D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.0561043{col 34}{space 2} .9358831{col 45}{space 1}   -0.06{col 54}{space 3}0.952{col 62}{space 4}-1.892442{col 75}{space 3} 1.780234
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
csi_perc_cap_outlays {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 734.2314{col 34}{space 2} 262.5234{col 45}{space 1}    2.80{col 54}{space 3}0.005{col 62}{space 4} 219.1224{col 75}{space 3}  1249.34
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-974.1736{col 34}{space 2} 404.0108{col 45}{space 1}   -2.41{col 54}{space 3}0.016{col 62}{space 4}-1766.901{col 75}{space 3} -181.446
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}right_to_work {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-93.49296{col 34}{space 2} 87.86798{col 45}{space 1}   -1.06{col 54}{space 3}0.288{col 62}{space 4}-265.9027{col 75}{space 3} 78.91675
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}  384.587{col 34}{space 2} 274.4748{col 45}{space 1}    1.40{col 54}{space 3}0.161{col 62}{space 4}-153.9724{col 75}{space 3} 923.1463
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 1}csi_welf_perc_total {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 191.2699{col 34}{space 2} 312.3255{col 45}{space 1}    0.61{col 54}{space 3}0.540{col 62}{space 4}-421.5579{col 75}{space 3} 804.0977
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 2316.724{col 34}{space 2} 818.1991{col 45}{space 1}    2.83{col 54}{space 3}0.005{col 62}{space 4} 711.2993{col 75}{space 3}  3922.15
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}nonfarm_persinc {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 1980.839{col 34}{space 2} 612.0244{col 45}{space 1}    3.24{col 54}{space 3}0.001{col 62}{space 4} 779.9581{col 75}{space 3} 3181.719
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 5652.637{col 34}{space 2} 1026.484{col 45}{space 1}    5.51{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4} 3638.527{col 75}{space 3} 7666.747
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 11}gov_party {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}  40.1015{col 34}{space 2} 42.69262{col 45}{space 1}    0.94{col 54}{space 3}0.348{col 62}{space 4}-43.66759{col 75}{space 3} 123.8706
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 3.264799{col 34}{space 2} 44.49711{col 45}{space 1}    0.07{col 54}{space 3}0.942{col 62}{space 4}-84.04496{col 75}{space 3} 90.57456
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 9}dem_unified {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 35.84571{col 34}{space 2} 43.64654{col 45}{space 1}    0.82{col 54}{space 3}0.412{col 62}{space 4}-49.79512{col 75}{space 3} 121.4865
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-20.67773{col 34}{space 2}  44.1635{col 45}{space 1}   -0.47{col 54}{space 3}0.640{col 62}{space 4}-107.3329{col 75}{space 3} 65.97746
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 9}rep_unified {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 22.19112{col 34}{space 2}  40.4882{col 45}{space 1}    0.55{col 54}{space 3}0.584{col 62}{space 4} -57.2526{col 75}{space 3} 101.6348
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-110.5672{col 34}{space 2} 48.44302{col 45}{space 1}   -2.28{col 54}{space 3}0.023{col 62}{space 4}-205.6194{col 75}{space 3}-15.51497
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 10}state_fips {c |}
{space 18}4  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} -216.022{col 34}{space 2} 191.0543{col 45}{space 1}   -1.13{col 54}{space 3}0.258{col 62}{space 4}-590.8982{col 75}{space 3} 158.8541
{txt}{space 18}6  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-217.9278{col 34}{space 2} 195.1971{col 45}{space 1}   -1.12{col 54}{space 3}0.264{col 62}{space 4}-600.9327{col 75}{space 3} 165.0772
{txt}{space 18}8  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-207.9325{col 34}{space 2} 204.7987{col 45}{space 1}   -1.02{col 54}{space 3}0.310{col 62}{space 4}-609.7772{col 75}{space 3} 193.9123
{txt}{space 18}9  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} -272.043{col 34}{space 2} 199.4004{col 45}{space 1}   -1.36{col 54}{space 3}0.173{col 62}{space 4}-663.2955{col 75}{space 3} 119.2095
{txt}{space 17}10  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} -302.417{col 34}{space 2} 186.0965{col 45}{space 1}   -1.63{col 54}{space 3}0.104{col 62}{space 4}-667.5653{col 75}{space 3} 62.73132
{txt}{space 17}15  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-154.4957{col 34}{space 2} 220.9536{col 45}{space 1}   -0.70{col 54}{space 3}0.485{col 62}{space 4}-588.0387{col 75}{space 3} 279.0473
{txt}{space 17}16  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-145.6481{col 34}{space 2} 205.6208{col 45}{space 1}   -0.71{col 54}{space 3}0.479{col 62}{space 4}-549.1058{col 75}{space 3} 257.8096
{txt}{space 17}17  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-240.4112{col 34}{space 2} 200.0564{col 45}{space 1}   -1.20{col 54}{space 3}0.230{col 62}{space 4}-632.9508{col 75}{space 3} 152.1283
{txt}{space 17}18  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-244.9565{col 34}{space 2} 192.8894{col 45}{space 1}   -1.27{col 54}{space 3}0.204{col 62}{space 4}-623.4334{col 75}{space 3} 133.5204
{txt}{space 17}19  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-24.70307{col 34}{space 2} 206.5719{col 45}{space 1}   -0.12{col 54}{space 3}0.905{col 62}{space 4}-430.0271{col 75}{space 3} 380.6209
{txt}{space 17}20  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-162.5758{col 34}{space 2} 202.5301{col 45}{space 1}   -0.80{col 54}{space 3}0.422{col 62}{space 4}-559.9692{col 75}{space 3} 234.8175
{txt}{space 17}23  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-307.7248{col 34}{space 2} 197.9989{col 45}{space 1}   -1.55{col 54}{space 3}0.120{col 62}{space 4}-696.2273{col 75}{space 3} 80.77765
{txt}{space 17}24  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-276.0591{col 34}{space 2} 192.4618{col 45}{space 1}   -1.43{col 54}{space 3}0.152{col 62}{space 4}-653.6971{col 75}{space 3} 101.5789
{txt}{space 17}25  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-295.5575{col 34}{space 2} 200.5929{col 45}{space 1}   -1.47{col 54}{space 3}0.141{col 62}{space 4}-689.1498{col 75}{space 3} 98.03481
{txt}{space 17}26  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-236.2313{col 34}{space 2} 203.1831{col 45}{space 1}   -1.16{col 54}{space 3}0.245{col 62}{space 4}-634.9058{col 75}{space 3} 162.4433
{txt}{space 17}27  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-155.6104{col 34}{space 2} 201.1958{col 45}{space 1}   -0.77{col 54}{space 3}0.439{col 62}{space 4}-550.3856{col 75}{space 3} 239.1648
{txt}{space 17}29  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-282.3467{col 34}{space 2} 195.5412{col 45}{space 1}   -1.44{col 54}{space 3}0.149{col 62}{space 4}-666.0269{col 75}{space 3} 101.3335
{txt}{space 17}30  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-168.0975{col 34}{space 2} 204.2007{col 45}{space 1}   -0.82{col 54}{space 3}0.411{col 62}{space 4}-568.7689{col 75}{space 3} 232.5738
{txt}{space 17}32  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-184.0338{col 34}{space 2} 207.0604{col 45}{space 1}   -0.89{col 54}{space 3}0.374{col 62}{space 4}-590.3163{col 75}{space 3} 222.2487
{txt}{space 17}33  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-304.3877{col 34}{space 2} 192.8126{col 45}{space 1}   -1.58{col 54}{space 3}0.115{col 62}{space 4}-682.7139{col 75}{space 3} 73.93855
{txt}{space 17}34  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-277.8494{col 34}{space 2} 197.8342{col 45}{space 1}   -1.40{col 54}{space 3}0.160{col 62}{space 4}-666.0288{col 75}{space 3} 110.3299
{txt}{space 17}35  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} -271.635{col 34}{space 2} 185.3655{col 45}{space 1}   -1.47{col 54}{space 3}0.143{col 62}{space 4}-635.3489{col 75}{space 3}  92.0789
{txt}{space 17}36  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-277.5961{col 34}{space 2} 202.3726{col 45}{space 1}   -1.37{col 54}{space 3}0.170{col 62}{space 4}-674.6804{col 75}{space 3} 119.4883
{txt}{space 17}38  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 24.29554{col 34}{space 2} 289.3182{col 45}{space 1}    0.08{col 54}{space 3}0.933{col 62}{space 4}-543.3887{col 75}{space 3} 591.9797
{txt}{space 17}39  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-270.5662{col 34}{space 2}  198.434{col 45}{space 1}   -1.36{col 54}{space 3}0.173{col 62}{space 4}-659.9225{col 75}{space 3} 118.7901
{txt}{space 17}41  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-231.3647{col 34}{space 2} 192.2539{col 45}{space 1}   -1.20{col 54}{space 3}0.229{col 62}{space 4}-608.5946{col 75}{space 3} 145.8652
{txt}{space 17}42  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} -299.345{col 34}{space 2} 196.3279{col 45}{space 1}   -1.52{col 54}{space 3}0.128{col 62}{space 4}-684.5688{col 75}{space 3} 85.87883
{txt}{space 17}44  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-342.6916{col 34}{space 2} 202.7703{col 45}{space 1}   -1.69{col 54}{space 3}0.091{col 62}{space 4}-740.5562{col 75}{space 3} 55.17311
{txt}{space 17}46  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 18.19121{col 34}{space 2} 264.4487{col 45}{space 1}    0.07{col 54}{space 3}0.945{col 62}{space 4}-500.6954{col 75}{space 3} 537.0778
{txt}{space 17}49  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-252.1472{col 34}{space 2} 198.5672{col 45}{space 1}   -1.27{col 54}{space 3}0.204{col 62}{space 4}-641.7649{col 75}{space 3} 137.4705
{txt}{space 17}50  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-258.0228{col 34}{space 2} 194.0129{col 45}{space 1}   -1.33{col 54}{space 3}0.184{col 62}{space 4}-638.7042{col 75}{space 3} 122.6585
{txt}{space 17}53  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-204.1222{col 34}{space 2} 192.4984{col 45}{space 1}   -1.06{col 54}{space 3}0.289{col 62}{space 4} -581.832{col 75}{space 3} 173.5875
{txt}{space 17}55  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-181.1017{col 34}{space 2} 196.4993{col 45}{space 1}   -0.92{col 54}{space 3}0.357{col 62}{space 4}-566.6618{col 75}{space 3} 204.4584
{txt}{space 17}56  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-156.9537{col 34}{space 2} 211.0485{col 45}{space 1}   -0.74{col 54}{space 3}0.457{col 62}{space 4}-571.0613{col 75}{space 3}  257.154
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 15}_cons {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-1529.892{col 34}{space 2} 539.4939{col 45}{space 1}   -2.84{col 54}{space 3}0.005{col 62}{space 4}-2588.457{col 75}{space 3}-471.3269
{txt}{hline 21}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. predict real_pc_inc_annhatallpre if year<=1980 & nonsouth==1
{txt}(option xb assumed; fitted values)
(2,191 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TESTING INCOME ERROR CORRECTION RATE *
. 
. test l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  1,  1089) ={res}    3.27
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0709
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * TESTING INCOME FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY) *
. 
. test l.real_pc_inc_ann = l.klarnerranney = 0

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.real_pc_inc_ann - L.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}
{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 2)}{space 1} L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  2,  1089) ={res}    1.79
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.1674
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. * ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *
. 
. lincom  d.klarnerranney +  l.d.klarnerranney +  l2.d.klarnerranney +  l3.d.klarnerranney 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}D.klarnerranney + LD.klarnerranney + L2D.klarnerranney + L3D.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}real_pc_in~n{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}(1) {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2008002{col 26}{space 2} 2.373297{col 37}{space 1}   -0.08{col 46}{space 3}0.933{col 54}{space 4}-4.857552{col 67}{space 3} 4.455952
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *
. 
. nlcom _b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] 

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}_b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}real_pc_in~n{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 4.380714{col 26}{space 2} 48.10486{col 37}{space 1}    0.09{col 46}{space 3}0.927{col 54}{space 4}-89.90307{col 67}{space 3}  98.6645
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. sum klarnerranney   if real_pc_inc_annhatallpre!=. & year <= 1980 & nonsouth==1, detail

         {txt}Annual Ranney Measure of State Legislative
               Partisan Balance (Klarner Data)
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res} 7.846587       2.666667
{txt} 5%    {res}       26       2.666667
{txt}10%    {res} 35.89286       4.966588       {txt}Obs         {res}      1,148
{txt}25%    {res} 57.88889       4.966588       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}      1,148

{txt}50%    {res} 74.40371                      {txt}Mean          {res} 69.93211
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res} 22.52059
{txt}75%    {res}       88            100
{txt}90%    {res}       96            100       {txt}Variance      {res} 507.1771
{txt}95%    {res} 98.35601            100       {txt}Skewness      {res}-.7979719
{txt}99%    {res} 99.78022            100       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 2.982485
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS  OF klarnerranney ON real_pc_inc_ann:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF klarnerranney MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF klarnerranney FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD *
. 
. 
. nlcom  (_b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*88  - (_b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*57.88889

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}(_b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*88 - (_b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*57.88889

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}real_pc_in~n{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 131.9082{col 26}{space 2} 1448.491{col 37}{space 1}    0.09{col 46}{space 3}0.927{col 54}{space 4}-2707.081{col 67}{space 3} 2970.898
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
.  
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. 
. 
. qui reg d.klarnerranney  l.klarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.klarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.klarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.klarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l4.d.klarnerranney l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1  i.state_fips  if year <=1980 & nonsouth==1
{txt}
{com}. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 63}
       Model {c |}        Obs  ll(null)  ll(model)      df         AIC        BIC
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 63}
{ralign 12:.}{col 14}{c |}{res}{col 16}     1,148{col 27}-4553.793{col 38}-4413.427{col 49}    53{col 58} 8932.855{col 69} 9200.281
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 63}
{p 15 21 2}
Note: N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see {helpb bic_note:[R] BIC note}.
{p_end}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. ******PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********
. 
. 
. 
. newey d.klarnerranney  l.klarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.klarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.klarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.klarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l4.d.klarnerranney l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1  i.state_fips  if year <=1980 & nonsouth==1, lag(6) force

{txt}Regression with Newey-West standard errors{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     1,148
{txt}maximum lag: {res}6{col 49}{txt}F( 52,      1095){col 67}= {res}      4.26
{col 49}{txt}Prob > F{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 17}{c |}{col 29}  Newey-West
{col 1}D.klarnerranney{col 17}{c |}      Coef.{col 29}   Std. Err.{col 41}      t{col 49}   P>|t|{col 57}     [95% Con{col 70}f. Interval]
{hline 16}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 2}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.1856022{col 29}{space 2} .0303047{col 40}{space 1}   -6.12{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} -.245064{col 70}{space 3}-.1261404
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0003107{col 29}{space 2} .0002284{col 40}{space 1}    1.36{col 49}{space 3}0.174{col 57}{space 4}-.0001376{col 70}{space 3} .0007589
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 2}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0848029{col 29}{space 2} .0214895{col 40}{space 1}    3.95{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0426377{col 70}{space 3} .1269681
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 12}D1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0005943{col 29}{space 2} .0010948{col 40}{space 1}   -0.54{col 49}{space 3}0.587{col 57}{space 4}-.0027423{col 70}{space 3} .0015538
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 2}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 11}L2D. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.3026175{col 29}{space 2} .0530292{col 40}{space 1}   -5.71{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.4066677{col 70}{space 3}-.1985672
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0005302{col 29}{space 2} .0011123{col 40}{space 1}    0.48{col 49}{space 3}0.634{col 57}{space 4}-.0016523{col 70}{space 3} .0027128
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 2}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 11}L3D. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  .037604{col 29}{space 2} .0143123{col 40}{space 1}    2.63{col 49}{space 3}0.009{col 57}{space 4} .0095214{col 70}{space 3} .0656866
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 11}L2D. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0007561{col 29}{space 2} .0009749{col 40}{space 1}   -0.78{col 49}{space 3}0.438{col 57}{space 4}-.0026691{col 70}{space 3} .0011569
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 2}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 11}L4D. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.1295374{col 29}{space 2}  .045629{col 40}{space 1}   -2.84{col 49}{space 3}0.005{col 57}{space 4}-.2190675{col 70}{space 3}-.0400072
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 11}L3D. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0010804{col 29}{space 2} .0012461{col 40}{space 1}   -0.87{col 49}{space 3}0.386{col 57}{space 4}-.0035254{col 70}{space 3} .0013647
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 6}gov_party {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  .774806{col 29}{space 2} 1.133613{col 40}{space 1}    0.68{col 49}{space 3}0.494{col 57}{space 4}-1.449493{col 70}{space 3} 2.999105
{txt}{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.3832678{col 29}{space 2}  .774489{col 40}{space 1}   -0.49{col 49}{space 3}0.621{col 57}{space 4}-1.902918{col 70}{space 3} 1.136382
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 4}dem_unified {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-2.139105{col 29}{space 2}  1.81378{col 40}{space 1}   -1.18{col 49}{space 3}0.239{col 57}{space 4}-5.697983{col 70}{space 3} 1.419773
{txt}{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 1.209032{col 29}{space 2} 1.076946{col 40}{space 1}    1.12{col 49}{space 3}0.262{col 57}{space 4}-.9040792{col 70}{space 3} 3.322143
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 4}rep_unified {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 1.427965{col 29}{space 2} 1.328654{col 40}{space 1}    1.07{col 49}{space 3}0.283{col 57}{space 4}-1.179031{col 70}{space 3} 4.034961
{txt}{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-1.107089{col 29}{space 2} .8151775{col 40}{space 1}   -1.36{col 49}{space 3}0.175{col 57}{space 4}-2.706576{col 70}{space 3} .4923977
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 1}electedjudges1 {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.3026375{col 29}{space 2} 1.426421{col 40}{space 1}   -0.21{col 49}{space 3}0.832{col 57}{space 4}-3.101465{col 70}{space 3}  2.49619
{txt}{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-3.223356{col 29}{space 2} 3.304035{col 40}{space 1}   -0.98{col 49}{space 3}0.329{col 57}{space 4}-9.706311{col 70}{space 3} 3.259599
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 5}state_fips {c |}
{space 13}4  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.6732984{col 29}{space 2} 2.869271{col 40}{space 1}   -0.23{col 49}{space 3}0.815{col 57}{space 4} -6.30319{col 70}{space 3} 4.956593
{txt}{space 13}6  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.7436209{col 29}{space 2} 2.960643{col 40}{space 1}   -0.25{col 49}{space 3}0.802{col 57}{space 4}-6.552797{col 70}{space 3} 5.065555
{txt}{space 13}8  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 1.333449{col 29}{space 2} 2.684333{col 40}{space 1}    0.50{col 49}{space 3}0.619{col 57}{space 4} -3.93357{col 70}{space 3} 6.600467
{txt}{space 13}9  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-2.097713{col 29}{space 2}  3.15098{col 40}{space 1}   -0.67{col 49}{space 3}0.506{col 57}{space 4}-8.280353{col 70}{space 3} 4.084928
{txt}{space 12}10  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} -.568997{col 29}{space 2}  2.67277{col 40}{space 1}   -0.21{col 49}{space 3}0.831{col 57}{space 4}-5.813327{col 70}{space 3} 4.675333
{txt}{space 12}15  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-4.249859{col 29}{space 2} 2.794116{col 40}{space 1}   -1.52{col 49}{space 3}0.129{col 57}{space 4}-9.732286{col 70}{space 3} 1.232567
{txt}{space 12}16  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0915489{col 29}{space 2} 3.017994{col 40}{space 1}   -0.03{col 49}{space 3}0.976{col 57}{space 4}-6.013254{col 70}{space 3} 5.830156
{txt}{space 12}17  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 1.157698{col 29}{space 2} 2.528339{col 40}{space 1}    0.46{col 49}{space 3}0.647{col 57}{space 4} -3.80324{col 70}{space 3} 6.118636
{txt}{space 12}18  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .4317253{col 29}{space 2} 2.899377{col 40}{space 1}    0.15{col 49}{space 3}0.882{col 57}{space 4}-5.257237{col 70}{space 3} 6.120688
{txt}{space 12}19  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-2.133732{col 29}{space 2} 3.033588{col 40}{space 1}   -0.70{col 49}{space 3}0.482{col 57}{space 4}-8.086034{col 70}{space 3} 3.818571
{txt}{space 12}20  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-2.037256{col 29}{space 2} 2.957692{col 40}{space 1}   -0.69{col 49}{space 3}0.491{col 57}{space 4} -7.84064{col 70}{space 3} 3.766129
{txt}{space 12}23  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-1.045815{col 29}{space 2} 3.363357{col 40}{space 1}   -0.31{col 49}{space 3}0.756{col 57}{space 4}-7.645167{col 70}{space 3} 5.553537
{txt}{space 12}24  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-6.159318{col 29}{space 2} 3.095362{col 40}{space 1}   -1.99{col 49}{space 3}0.047{col 57}{space 4}-12.23283{col 70}{space 3}-.0858071
{txt}{space 12}25  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-3.177103{col 29}{space 2} 3.325734{col 40}{space 1}   -0.96{col 49}{space 3}0.340{col 57}{space 4}-9.702634{col 70}{space 3} 3.348428
{txt}{space 12}26  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0862036{col 29}{space 2} 3.093147{col 40}{space 1}   -0.03{col 49}{space 3}0.978{col 57}{space 4}-6.155369{col 70}{space 3} 5.982962
{txt}{space 12}27  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .1831544{col 29}{space 2} 2.963165{col 40}{space 1}    0.06{col 49}{space 3}0.951{col 57}{space 4}-5.630968{col 70}{space 3} 5.997277
{txt}{space 12}29  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.7764203{col 29}{space 2}   2.8196{col 40}{space 1}   -0.28{col 49}{space 3}0.783{col 57}{space 4} -6.30885{col 70}{space 3} 4.756009
{txt}{space 12}30  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 2.366861{col 29}{space 2} 2.680013{col 40}{space 1}    0.88{col 49}{space 3}0.377{col 57}{space 4}-2.891679{col 70}{space 3} 7.625402
{txt}{space 12}32  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.7402551{col 29}{space 2} 3.568741{col 40}{space 1}   -0.21{col 49}{space 3}0.836{col 57}{space 4}-7.742599{col 70}{space 3} 6.262089
{txt}{space 12}33  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-1.661503{col 29}{space 2} 2.933745{col 40}{space 1}   -0.57{col 49}{space 3}0.571{col 57}{space 4}-7.417901{col 70}{space 3} 4.094895
{txt}{space 12}34  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-1.723651{col 29}{space 2} 2.913566{col 40}{space 1}   -0.59{col 49}{space 3}0.554{col 57}{space 4}-7.440454{col 70}{space 3} 3.993153
{txt}{space 12}35  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-2.777706{col 29}{space 2} 3.322657{col 40}{space 1}   -0.84{col 49}{space 3}0.403{col 57}{space 4}-9.297199{col 70}{space 3} 3.741788
{txt}{space 12}36  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .8791266{col 29}{space 2}  2.73039{col 40}{space 1}    0.32{col 49}{space 3}0.748{col 57}{space 4}-4.478262{col 70}{space 3} 6.236515
{txt}{space 12}38  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-4.461476{col 29}{space 2}   4.1685{col 40}{space 1}   -1.07{col 49}{space 3}0.285{col 57}{space 4}-12.64063{col 70}{space 3} 3.717675
{txt}{space 12}39  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.5462374{col 29}{space 2} 2.874897{col 40}{space 1}   -0.19{col 49}{space 3}0.849{col 57}{space 4}-6.187168{col 70}{space 3} 5.094693
{txt}{space 12}41  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.3314113{col 29}{space 2} 3.279313{col 40}{space 1}   -0.10{col 49}{space 3}0.920{col 57}{space 4} -6.76586{col 70}{space 3} 6.103037
{txt}{space 12}42  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  2.11442{col 29}{space 2} 2.813431{col 40}{space 1}    0.75{col 49}{space 3}0.452{col 57}{space 4}-3.405905{col 70}{space 3} 7.634745
{txt}{space 12}44  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-4.337963{col 29}{space 2}  3.22142{col 40}{space 1}   -1.35{col 49}{space 3}0.178{col 57}{space 4}-10.65882{col 70}{space 3} 1.982891
{txt}{space 12}46  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-2.077393{col 29}{space 2} 3.875586{col 40}{space 1}   -0.54{col 49}{space 3}0.592{col 57}{space 4}-9.681808{col 70}{space 3} 5.527022
{txt}{space 12}49  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 1.395748{col 29}{space 2} 3.159436{col 40}{space 1}    0.44{col 49}{space 3}0.659{col 57}{space 4}-4.803485{col 70}{space 3} 7.594981
{txt}{space 12}50  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-3.944939{col 29}{space 2} 3.165122{col 40}{space 1}   -1.25{col 49}{space 3}0.213{col 57}{space 4}-10.15533{col 70}{space 3} 2.265451
{txt}{space 12}53  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  2.22818{col 29}{space 2} 2.963065{col 40}{space 1}    0.75{col 49}{space 3}0.452{col 57}{space 4}-3.585747{col 70}{space 3} 8.042106
{txt}{space 12}55  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.1668065{col 29}{space 2} 2.904922{col 40}{space 1}   -0.06{col 49}{space 3}0.954{col 57}{space 4}-5.866649{col 70}{space 3} 5.533036
{txt}{space 12}56  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.7160011{col 29}{space 2}  2.77939{col 40}{space 1}   -0.26{col 49}{space 3}0.797{col 57}{space 4}-6.169532{col 70}{space 3}  4.73753
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 10}_cons {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 11.71101{col 29}{space 2} 3.630554{col 40}{space 1}    3.23{col 49}{space 3}0.001{col 57}{space 4} 4.587379{col 70}{space 3} 18.83464
{txt}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. predict klarnerranneyhatallpre if year<=1980 & nonsouth==1
{txt}(option xb assumed; fitted values)
(2,191 missing values generated)

{com}. 
.  
. 
. * TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *
. 
. test l.klarnerranney = 0 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  1,  1095) ={res}   37.51
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0000
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY) *
. 
. test l.klarnerranney = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.klarnerranney - L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}
{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 2)}{space 1} L.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  2,  1095) ={res}   19.35
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0000
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. * ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *
. 
. lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}D.real_pc_inc_ann + LD.real_pc_inc_ann + L2D.real_pc_inc_ann + L3D.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}klarnerran~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}(1) {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0019005{col 26}{space 2} .0022613{col 37}{space 1}   -0.84{col 46}{space 3}0.401{col 54}{space 4}-.0063374{col 67}{space 3} .0025365
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. * TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *
. 
. nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.klarnerranney]

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.klarnerranney]

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}klarnerran~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0016739{col 26}{space 2} .0011533{col 37}{space 1}    1.45{col 46}{space 3}0.147{col 54}{space 4}-.0005864{col 67}{space 3} .0039342
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. sum real_pc_inc_ann   if klarnerranneyhatallpre!=. & year<=1980 & nonsouth==1, detail

        {txt}Per Capita Annual Income (1982-1984 Constant
                          Dollars)
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res} 5022.266       4489.073
{txt} 5%    {res}  5631.98       4631.569
{txt}10%    {res} 6163.936       4655.711       {txt}Obs         {res}      1,148
{txt}25%    {res} 7127.247        4670.98       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}      1,148

{txt}50%    {res} 8955.586                      {txt}Mean          {res} 9216.766
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res} 2570.914
{txt}75%    {res} 11116.22       19154.27
{txt}90%    {res} 12830.78       19819.19       {txt}Variance      {res}  6609599
{txt}95%    {res} 13520.74       20438.71       {txt}Skewness      {res} .5683358
{txt}99%    {res} 14802.22       21278.61       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 3.212132
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS  OF  real_pc_inc_ann ON klarnerranney:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD 
. 
. 
. nlcom  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / -_b[l.klarnerranney])*11116.22   -  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / -_b[l.klarnerranney])*7127.247 

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}(_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / -_b[l.klarnerranney])*11116.22 - (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / -_b[l.klarnerranney])*7127.247

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}klarnerran~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 6.677133{col 26}{space 2} 4.600324{col 37}{space 1}    1.45{col 46}{space 3}0.147{col 54}{space 4}-2.339335{col 67}{space 3}  15.6936
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
.   
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. 
. 
. 
. // (4,3)  MODEL
. 
. 
. 
. *** I.C: NON-SOUTHERN STATES (N = 35): POST-PARTISAN ALIGNMENT TIME PERIOD (1981 - 2010) ***
. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. qui reg d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_total l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified   i.state_fips  if year >1980 & nonsouth==1
{txt}
{com}. 
. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 63}
       Model {c |}        Obs  ll(null)  ll(model)      df         AIC        BIC
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 63}
{ralign 12:.}{col 14}{c |}{res}{col 16}     1,048{col 27}-7769.967{col 38}-7611.818{col 49}    57{col 58} 15337.64{col 69} 15620.05
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 63}
{p 15 21 2}
Note: N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see {helpb bic_note:[R] BIC note}.
{p_end}

{com}. 
. 
. ******INCOME EQUATION*********
. 
. newey d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_total l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified   i.state_fips  if year >1980 & nonsouth==1, lag(5) force

{txt}Regression with Newey-West standard errors{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     1,048
{txt}maximum lag: {res}5{col 49}{txt}F( 56,       991){col 67}= {res}     10.34
{col 49}{txt}Prob > F{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 21}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 22}{c |}{col 34}  Newey-West
{col 1}   D.real_pc_inc_ann{col 22}{c |}      Coef.{col 34}   Std. Err.{col 46}      t{col 54}   P>|t|{col 62}     [95% Con{col 75}f. Interval]
{hline 21}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.0569365{col 34}{space 2} .0076765{col 45}{space 1}   -7.42{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4}-.0720005{col 75}{space 3}-.0418725
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 1.845681{col 34}{space 2} 1.262206{col 45}{space 1}    1.46{col 54}{space 3}0.144{col 62}{space 4}-.6312225{col 75}{space 3} 4.322584
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} .2326506{col 34}{space 2}  .040094{col 45}{space 1}    5.80{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4} .1539716{col 75}{space 3} .3113296
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}D1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-1.366348{col 34}{space 2} 1.856829{col 45}{space 1}   -0.74{col 54}{space 3}0.462{col 62}{space 4}-5.010117{col 75}{space 3}  2.27742
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 16}L2D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} .0869378{col 34}{space 2} .0510973{col 45}{space 1}    1.70{col 54}{space 3}0.089{col 62}{space 4}-.0133335{col 75}{space 3} .1872091
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-1.018649{col 34}{space 2} 1.754893{col 45}{space 1}   -0.58{col 54}{space 3}0.562{col 62}{space 4}-4.462381{col 75}{space 3} 2.425084
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 16}L3D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} -.128162{col 34}{space 2} .0470382{col 45}{space 1}   -2.72{col 54}{space 3}0.007{col 62}{space 4} -.220468{col 75}{space 3} -.035856
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 16}L2D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-1.170444{col 34}{space 2} 1.537411{col 45}{space 1}   -0.76{col 54}{space 3}0.447{col 62}{space 4}  -4.1874{col 75}{space 3} 1.846511
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
csi_perc_cap_outlays {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} -1840.69{col 34}{space 2} 722.0936{col 45}{space 1}   -2.55{col 54}{space 3}0.011{col 62}{space 4}-3257.698{col 75}{space 3}-423.6821
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 1078.295{col 34}{space 2} 840.8393{col 45}{space 1}    1.28{col 54}{space 3}0.200{col 62}{space 4}-571.7349{col 75}{space 3} 2728.325
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}right_to_work {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 190.4879{col 34}{space 2}  148.102{col 45}{space 1}    1.29{col 54}{space 3}0.199{col 62}{space 4}-100.1417{col 75}{space 3} 481.1175
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-64.28388{col 34}{space 2}  283.768{col 45}{space 1}   -0.23{col 54}{space 3}0.821{col 62}{space 4}-621.1391{col 75}{space 3} 492.5714
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 1}csi_welf_perc_total {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 1323.463{col 34}{space 2} 484.6424{col 45}{space 1}    2.73{col 54}{space 3}0.006{col 62}{space 4} 372.4195{col 75}{space 3} 2274.506
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-3250.241{col 34}{space 2} 691.7915{col 45}{space 1}   -4.70{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4}-4607.785{col 75}{space 3}-1892.696
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}nonfarm_persinc {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 11574.97{col 34}{space 2} 2037.264{col 45}{space 1}    5.68{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4} 7577.128{col 75}{space 3} 15572.82
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 5552.294{col 34}{space 2} 1718.991{col 45}{space 1}    3.23{col 54}{space 3}0.001{col 62}{space 4} 2179.014{col 75}{space 3} 8925.574
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 11}gov_party {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-14.60523{col 34}{space 2} 34.65027{col 45}{space 1}   -0.42{col 54}{space 3}0.673{col 62}{space 4}-82.60155{col 75}{space 3} 53.39109
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-50.86648{col 34}{space 2} 40.85418{col 45}{space 1}   -1.25{col 54}{space 3}0.213{col 62}{space 4}-131.0371{col 75}{space 3} 29.30416
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 9}dem_unified {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-53.38918{col 34}{space 2} 43.12162{col 45}{space 1}   -1.24{col 54}{space 3}0.216{col 62}{space 4}-138.0093{col 75}{space 3} 31.23099
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 86.14908{col 34}{space 2} 39.98332{col 45}{space 1}    2.15{col 54}{space 3}0.031{col 62}{space 4} 7.687382{col 75}{space 3} 164.6108
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 9}rep_unified {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 77.59903{col 34}{space 2} 41.15555{col 45}{space 1}    1.89{col 54}{space 3}0.060{col 62}{space 4}-3.163005{col 75}{space 3} 158.3611
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-81.16948{col 34}{space 2} 52.15059{col 45}{space 1}   -1.56{col 54}{space 3}0.120{col 62}{space 4}-183.5078{col 75}{space 3} 21.16879
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 10}state_fips {c |}
{space 18}4  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-353.3371{col 34}{space 2}  179.362{col 45}{space 1}   -1.97{col 54}{space 3}0.049{col 62}{space 4}-705.3101{col 75}{space 3}-1.364186
{txt}{space 18}6  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-116.8858{col 34}{space 2} 121.6147{col 45}{space 1}   -0.96{col 54}{space 3}0.337{col 62}{space 4}-355.5376{col 75}{space 3} 121.7661
{txt}{space 18}8  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}  -12.448{col 34}{space 2} 102.9571{col 45}{space 1}   -0.12{col 54}{space 3}0.904{col 62}{space 4} -214.487{col 75}{space 3}  189.591
{txt}{space 18}9  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 278.7481{col 34}{space 2} 106.0732{col 45}{space 1}    2.63{col 54}{space 3}0.009{col 62}{space 4} 70.59424{col 75}{space 3} 486.9019
{txt}{space 17}10  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 73.14103{col 34}{space 2} 95.80217{col 45}{space 1}    0.76{col 54}{space 3}0.445{col 62}{space 4}-114.8574{col 75}{space 3} 261.1394
{txt}{space 17}15  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 248.2102{col 34}{space 2}  112.294{col 45}{space 1}    2.21{col 54}{space 3}0.027{col 62}{space 4} 27.84887{col 75}{space 3} 468.5716
{txt}{space 17}16  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 43.05725{col 34}{space 2} 179.6784{col 45}{space 1}    0.24{col 54}{space 3}0.811{col 62}{space 4}-309.5365{col 75}{space 3}  395.651
{txt}{space 17}17  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-120.1483{col 34}{space 2} 103.5387{col 45}{space 1}   -1.16{col 54}{space 3}0.246{col 62}{space 4}-323.3287{col 75}{space 3} 83.03203
{txt}{space 17}18  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-258.8933{col 34}{space 2} 101.5983{col 45}{space 1}   -2.55{col 54}{space 3}0.011{col 62}{space 4}-458.2657{col 75}{space 3}-59.52081
{txt}{space 17}19  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 2.897494{col 34}{space 2} 188.0182{col 45}{space 1}    0.02{col 54}{space 3}0.988{col 62}{space 4}-366.0621{col 75}{space 3} 371.8571
{txt}{space 17}20  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}  -134.85{col 34}{space 2} 174.1028{col 45}{space 1}   -0.77{col 54}{space 3}0.439{col 62}{space 4}-476.5024{col 75}{space 3} 206.8025
{txt}{space 17}23  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-308.1462{col 34}{space 2} 124.6414{col 45}{space 1}   -2.47{col 54}{space 3}0.014{col 62}{space 4}-552.7376{col 75}{space 3}-63.55484
{txt}{space 17}24  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 240.3832{col 34}{space 2} 111.8181{col 45}{space 1}    2.15{col 54}{space 3}0.032{col 62}{space 4} 20.95571{col 75}{space 3} 459.8107
{txt}{space 17}25  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 184.8257{col 34}{space 2} 152.4969{col 45}{space 1}    1.21{col 54}{space 3}0.226{col 62}{space 4}-114.4282{col 75}{space 3} 484.0796
{txt}{space 17}26  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-344.9941{col 34}{space 2} 106.0702{col 45}{space 1}   -3.25{col 54}{space 3}0.001{col 62}{space 4}-553.1421{col 75}{space 3}-136.8462
{txt}{space 17}27  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 32.83825{col 34}{space 2} 101.0862{col 45}{space 1}    0.32{col 54}{space 3}0.745{col 62}{space 4}-165.5294{col 75}{space 3} 231.2058
{txt}{space 17}29  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-162.3506{col 34}{space 2} 105.0957{col 45}{space 1}   -1.54{col 54}{space 3}0.123{col 62}{space 4}-368.5863{col 75}{space 3} 43.88507
{txt}{space 17}30  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} -20.1773{col 34}{space 2} 103.3833{col 45}{space 1}   -0.20{col 54}{space 3}0.845{col 62}{space 4}-223.0527{col 75}{space 3} 182.6981
{txt}{space 17}32  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-226.3472{col 34}{space 2} 179.1543{col 45}{space 1}   -1.26{col 54}{space 3}0.207{col 62}{space 4}-577.9125{col 75}{space 3} 125.2181
{txt}{space 17}33  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-87.83149{col 34}{space 2} 112.0477{col 45}{space 1}   -0.78{col 54}{space 3}0.433{col 62}{space 4}-307.7096{col 75}{space 3} 132.0466
{txt}{space 17}34  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 166.2143{col 34}{space 2}  96.1174{col 45}{space 1}    1.73{col 54}{space 3}0.084{col 62}{space 4}-22.40274{col 75}{space 3} 354.8313
{txt}{space 17}35  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-113.6932{col 34}{space 2} 93.15676{col 45}{space 1}   -1.22{col 54}{space 3}0.223{col 62}{space 4}-296.5004{col 75}{space 3} 69.11393
{txt}{space 17}36  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-67.20443{col 34}{space 2} 123.5638{col 45}{space 1}   -0.54{col 54}{space 3}0.587{col 62}{space 4}-309.6812{col 75}{space 3} 175.2723
{txt}{space 17}38  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 464.6472{col 34}{space 2} 130.0592{col 45}{space 1}    3.57{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4} 209.4241{col 75}{space 3} 719.8703
{txt}{space 17}39  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-275.3374{col 34}{space 2} 100.1547{col 45}{space 1}   -2.75{col 54}{space 3}0.006{col 62}{space 4}-471.8771{col 75}{space 3}-78.79771
{txt}{space 17}41  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-111.9149{col 34}{space 2} 95.29806{col 45}{space 1}   -1.17{col 54}{space 3}0.241{col 62}{space 4} -298.924{col 75}{space 3} 75.09431
{txt}{space 17}42  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-281.2405{col 34}{space 2} 109.0801{col 45}{space 1}   -2.58{col 54}{space 3}0.010{col 62}{space 4}-495.2951{col 75}{space 3}-67.18597
{txt}{space 17}44  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} -73.6774{col 34}{space 2} 133.3376{col 45}{space 1}   -0.55{col 54}{space 3}0.581{col 62}{space 4}-335.3339{col 75}{space 3} 187.9791
{txt}{space 17}46  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}  418.684{col 34}{space 2} 224.8133{col 45}{space 1}    1.86{col 54}{space 3}0.063{col 62}{space 4}-22.48086{col 75}{space 3} 859.8489
{txt}{space 17}49  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-424.4146{col 34}{space 2} 171.8213{col 45}{space 1}   -2.47{col 54}{space 3}0.014{col 62}{space 4}-761.5899{col 75}{space 3}-87.23924
{txt}{space 17}50  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-107.2878{col 34}{space 2} 102.4346{col 45}{space 1}   -1.05{col 54}{space 3}0.295{col 62}{space 4}-308.3016{col 75}{space 3} 93.72588
{txt}{space 17}53  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 66.28229{col 34}{space 2} 97.15816{col 45}{space 1}    0.68{col 54}{space 3}0.495{col 62}{space 4}-124.3771{col 75}{space 3} 256.9416
{txt}{space 17}55  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-153.8229{col 34}{space 2} 99.20942{col 45}{space 1}   -1.55{col 54}{space 3}0.121{col 62}{space 4}-348.5076{col 75}{space 3} 40.86177
{txt}{space 17}56  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 23.99821{col 34}{space 2} 212.9443{col 45}{space 1}    0.11{col 54}{space 3}0.910{col 62}{space 4}-393.8754{col 75}{space 3} 441.8718
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 15}_cons {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-10602.65{col 34}{space 2} 2042.653{col 45}{space 1}   -5.19{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4}-14611.07{col 75}{space 3}-6594.227
{txt}{hline 21}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. predict real_pc_inc_annhatallpost if year>1980 & nonsouth==1
{txt}(option xb assumed; fitted values)
(2,291 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TESTING INCOME ERROR CORRECTION RATE *
. 
. test l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  1,   991) ={res}   55.01
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0000
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * TESTING INCOME FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY) *
. 
. test l.real_pc_inc_ann = l.klarnerranney = 0

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.real_pc_inc_ann - L.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}
{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 2)}{space 1} L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  2,   991) ={res}   27.94
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0000
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *
. 
. lincom   d.klarnerranney +  l.d.klarnerranney +  l2.d.klarnerranney

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}D.klarnerranney + LD.klarnerranney + L2D.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}real_pc_in~n{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}(1) {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.555442{col 26}{space 2} 3.212766{col 37}{space 1}   -1.11{col 46}{space 3}0.269{col 54}{space 4}-9.860047{col 67}{space 3} 2.749164
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *
. 
. nlcom _b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] 

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}_b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}real_pc_in~n{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 32.41648{col 26}{space 2} 22.28811{col 37}{space 1}    1.45{col 46}{space 3}0.146{col 54}{space 4}-11.26741{col 67}{space 3} 76.10038
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. sum klarnerranney   if  real_pc_inc_annhatallpost!=. & year > 1980 & nonsouth==1, detail

         {txt}Annual Ranney Measure of State Legislative
               Partisan Balance (Klarner Data)
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res} 21.72549       19.76471
{txt} 5%    {res}       32       19.76471
{txt}10%    {res}       44       19.84314       {txt}Obs         {res}      1,048
{txt}25%    {res} 65.40031       19.84314       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}      1,048

{txt}50%    {res} 81.80003                      {txt}Mean          {res} 76.06895
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res} 19.67003
{txt}75%    {res} 91.25554            100
{txt}90%    {res} 96.73892            100       {txt}Variance      {res} 386.9103
{txt}95%    {res} 98.27586            100       {txt}Skewness      {res}-1.065924
{txt}99%    {res} 99.43503            100       {txt}Kurtosis      {res}  3.34905
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS  OF klarnerranney ON real_pc_inc_ann:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF klarnerranney MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF klarnerranney FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD *
. 
. 
. nlcom  (_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*91.25554  -  (_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*65.40031 

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}(_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*91.25554 - (_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*65.40031

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}real_pc_in~n{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 838.1356{col 26}{space 2} 576.2642{col 37}{space 1}    1.45{col 46}{space 3}0.146{col 54}{space 4}-291.3215{col 67}{space 3} 1967.593
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. 
. qui reg d.klarnerranney  l.klarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.klarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.klarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.klarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips  if year >1980 & nonsouth==1
{txt}
{com}. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 63}
       Model {c |}        Obs  ll(null)  ll(model)      df         AIC        BIC
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 63}
{ralign 12:.}{col 14}{c |}{res}{col 16}     1,048{col 27}-3539.918{col 38}-3452.887{col 49}    51{col 58} 7007.773{col 69}  7260.46
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 63}
{p 15 21 2}
Note: N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see {helpb bic_note:[R] BIC note}.
{p_end}

{com}. 
. 
. ******PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********
. 
. 
. newey d.klarnerranney  l.klarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.klarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.klarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.klarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips  if year >1980 & nonsouth==1, lag(5) force

{txt}Regression with Newey-West standard errors{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     1,048
{txt}maximum lag: {res}5{col 49}{txt}F( 50,       997){col 67}= {res}      2.97
{col 49}{txt}Prob > F{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 17}{c |}{col 29}  Newey-West
{col 1}D.klarnerranney{col 17}{c |}      Coef.{col 29}   Std. Err.{col 41}      t{col 49}   P>|t|{col 57}     [95% Con{col 70}f. Interval]
{hline 16}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 2}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.2542075{col 29}{space 2} .0305608{col 40}{space 1}   -8.32{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.3141784{col 70}{space 3}-.1942366
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0003611{col 29}{space 2} .0001157{col 40}{space 1}   -3.12{col 49}{space 3}0.002{col 57}{space 4}-.0005882{col 70}{space 3}-.0001341
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 2}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0733469{col 29}{space 2} .0250886{col 40}{space 1}    2.92{col 49}{space 3}0.004{col 57}{space 4} .0241143{col 70}{space 3} .1225794
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 12}D1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0006382{col 29}{space 2} .0005645{col 40}{space 1}   -1.13{col 49}{space 3}0.259{col 57}{space 4}-.0017459{col 70}{space 3} .0004695
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 2}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 11}L2D. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0133285{col 29}{space 2} .0392335{col 40}{space 1}    0.34{col 49}{space 3}0.734{col 57}{space 4}-.0636612{col 70}{space 3} .0903183
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0010458{col 29}{space 2} .0007821{col 40}{space 1}    1.34{col 49}{space 3}0.181{col 57}{space 4} -.000489{col 70}{space 3} .0025805
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 2}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 11}L3D. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0014091{col 29}{space 2} .0277903{col 40}{space 1}   -0.05{col 49}{space 3}0.960{col 57}{space 4}-.0559433{col 70}{space 3} .0531251
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 11}L2D. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0009085{col 29}{space 2} .0008911{col 40}{space 1}    1.02{col 49}{space 3}0.308{col 57}{space 4}-.0008402{col 70}{space 3} .0026572
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 6}gov_party {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 1.019498{col 29}{space 2} .6834697{col 40}{space 1}    1.49{col 49}{space 3}0.136{col 57}{space 4}-.3217065{col 70}{space 3} 2.360702
{txt}{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-1.126203{col 29}{space 2}  .603063{col 40}{space 1}   -1.87{col 49}{space 3}0.062{col 57}{space 4}-2.309622{col 70}{space 3} .0572153
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 4}dem_unified {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .9992484{col 29}{space 2} .9868763{col 40}{space 1}    1.01{col 49}{space 3}0.312{col 57}{space 4}-.9373447{col 70}{space 3} 2.935841
{txt}{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.3718029{col 29}{space 2} .7906428{col 40}{space 1}   -0.47{col 49}{space 3}0.638{col 57}{space 4}-1.923318{col 70}{space 3} 1.179712
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 4}rep_unified {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 1.843874{col 29}{space 2}   .86858{col 40}{space 1}    2.12{col 49}{space 3}0.034{col 57}{space 4} .1394197{col 70}{space 3} 3.548329
{txt}{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-1.979165{col 29}{space 2} .7645715{col 40}{space 1}   -2.59{col 49}{space 3}0.010{col 57}{space 4}-3.479519{col 70}{space 3}-.4788114
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 1}electedjudges1 {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-1.262407{col 29}{space 2} 1.906194{col 40}{space 1}   -0.66{col 49}{space 3}0.508{col 57}{space 4}-5.003021{col 70}{space 3} 2.478207
{txt}{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 2.146645{col 29}{space 2} 1.504987{col 40}{space 1}    1.43{col 49}{space 3}0.154{col 57}{space 4}-.8066607{col 70}{space 3} 5.099952
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 5}state_fips {c |}
{space 13}4  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-3.266488{col 29}{space 2} 2.121449{col 40}{space 1}   -1.54{col 49}{space 3}0.124{col 57}{space 4}-7.429506{col 70}{space 3} .8965297
{txt}{space 13}6  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-1.150294{col 29}{space 2} 2.080004{col 40}{space 1}   -0.55{col 49}{space 3}0.580{col 57}{space 4}-5.231982{col 70}{space 3} 2.931393
{txt}{space 13}8  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-1.522646{col 29}{space 2} 2.416348{col 40}{space 1}   -0.63{col 49}{space 3}0.529{col 57}{space 4}-6.264357{col 70}{space 3} 3.219066
{txt}{space 13}9  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.6622337{col 29}{space 2} 2.247479{col 40}{space 1}   -0.29{col 49}{space 3}0.768{col 57}{space 4}-5.072566{col 70}{space 3} 3.748098
{txt}{space 12}10  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .7353913{col 29}{space 2} 2.091043{col 40}{space 1}    0.35{col 49}{space 3}0.725{col 57}{space 4} -3.36796{col 70}{space 3} 4.838742
{txt}{space 12}15  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-14.87298{col 29}{space 2} 2.780212{col 40}{space 1}   -5.35{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-20.32872{col 70}{space 3}-9.417243
{txt}{space 12}16  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-10.94497{col 29}{space 2} 3.602847{col 40}{space 1}   -3.04{col 49}{space 3}0.002{col 57}{space 4}-18.01501{col 70}{space 3}-3.874941
{txt}{space 12}17  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 1.271212{col 29}{space 2} 2.011351{col 40}{space 1}    0.63{col 49}{space 3}0.528{col 57}{space 4}-2.675755{col 70}{space 3} 5.218179
{txt}{space 12}18  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-2.120072{col 29}{space 2} 2.224031{col 40}{space 1}   -0.95{col 49}{space 3}0.341{col 57}{space 4}-6.484392{col 70}{space 3} 2.244247
{txt}{space 12}19  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.6364251{col 29}{space 2} 2.030443{col 40}{space 1}   -0.31{col 49}{space 3}0.754{col 57}{space 4}-4.620857{col 70}{space 3} 3.348007
{txt}{space 12}20  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-5.676482{col 29}{space 2} 2.358085{col 40}{space 1}   -2.41{col 49}{space 3}0.016{col 57}{space 4}-10.30386{col 70}{space 3}-1.049102
{txt}{space 12}23  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} -1.34042{col 29}{space 2}  2.32437{col 40}{space 1}   -0.58{col 49}{space 3}0.564{col 57}{space 4}-5.901638{col 70}{space 3} 3.220798
{txt}{space 12}24  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-10.62228{col 29}{space 2}  3.01466{col 40}{space 1}   -3.52{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-16.53808{col 70}{space 3}-4.706472
{txt}{space 12}25  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-12.08806{col 29}{space 2} 2.591996{col 40}{space 1}   -4.66{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-17.17445{col 70}{space 3}-7.001665
{txt}{space 12}26  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 1.740214{col 29}{space 2} 2.777792{col 40}{space 1}    0.63{col 49}{space 3}0.531{col 57}{space 4}-3.710777{col 70}{space 3} 7.191204
{txt}{space 12}27  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  -.21996{col 29}{space 2} 3.117755{col 40}{space 1}   -0.07{col 49}{space 3}0.944{col 57}{space 4}-6.338076{col 70}{space 3} 5.898156
{txt}{space 12}29  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-3.240604{col 29}{space 2} 2.252259{col 40}{space 1}   -1.44{col 49}{space 3}0.151{col 57}{space 4}-7.660317{col 70}{space 3} 1.179108
{txt}{space 12}30  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-1.916491{col 29}{space 2}  2.27935{col 40}{space 1}   -0.84{col 49}{space 3}0.401{col 57}{space 4}-6.389366{col 70}{space 3} 2.556383
{txt}{space 12}32  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 1.978464{col 29}{space 2} 2.734093{col 40}{space 1}    0.72{col 49}{space 3}0.469{col 57}{space 4}-3.386774{col 70}{space 3} 7.343702
{txt}{space 12}33  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-5.744623{col 29}{space 2} 2.425602{col 40}{space 1}   -2.37{col 49}{space 3}0.018{col 57}{space 4}-10.50449{col 70}{space 3}-.9847527
{txt}{space 12}34  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.3389167{col 29}{space 2} 2.078618{col 40}{space 1}   -0.16{col 49}{space 3}0.871{col 57}{space 4}-4.417886{col 70}{space 3} 3.740052
{txt}{space 12}35  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-2.616197{col 29}{space 2} 2.719588{col 40}{space 1}   -0.96{col 49}{space 3}0.336{col 57}{space 4} -7.95297{col 70}{space 3} 2.720575
{txt}{space 12}36  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 1.642521{col 29}{space 2} 1.895947{col 40}{space 1}    0.87{col 49}{space 3}0.387{col 57}{space 4}-2.077983{col 70}{space 3} 5.363025
{txt}{space 12}38  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-3.531649{col 29}{space 2} 3.239951{col 40}{space 1}   -1.09{col 49}{space 3}0.276{col 57}{space 4}-9.889555{col 70}{space 3} 2.826256
{txt}{space 12}39  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.3997027{col 29}{space 2}  2.93866{col 40}{space 1}   -0.14{col 49}{space 3}0.892{col 57}{space 4} -6.16637{col 70}{space 3} 5.366965
{txt}{space 12}41  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .9383677{col 29}{space 2}   2.7895{col 40}{space 1}    0.34{col 49}{space 3}0.737{col 57}{space 4}-4.535598{col 70}{space 3} 6.412333
{txt}{space 12}42  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .4902863{col 29}{space 2} 1.920751{col 40}{space 1}    0.26{col 49}{space 3}0.799{col 57}{space 4}-3.278893{col 70}{space 3} 4.259465
{txt}{space 12}44  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-13.09864{col 29}{space 2} 2.671704{col 40}{space 1}   -4.90{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-18.34145{col 70}{space 3}-7.855831
{txt}{space 12}46  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-7.724968{col 29}{space 2} 2.666968{col 40}{space 1}   -2.90{col 49}{space 3}0.004{col 57}{space 4}-12.95848{col 70}{space 3}-2.491453
{txt}{space 12}49  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-10.28465{col 29}{space 2} 2.536952{col 40}{space 1}   -4.05{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-15.26303{col 70}{space 3}-5.306271
{txt}{space 12}50  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-1.663814{col 29}{space 2} 2.219487{col 40}{space 1}   -0.75{col 49}{space 3}0.454{col 57}{space 4}-6.019216{col 70}{space 3} 2.691588
{txt}{space 12}53  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .8937064{col 29}{space 2} 2.844735{col 40}{space 1}    0.31{col 49}{space 3}0.753{col 57}{space 4}-4.688649{col 70}{space 3} 6.476062
{txt}{space 12}55  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 1.755082{col 29}{space 2} 2.789966{col 40}{space 1}    0.63{col 49}{space 3}0.529{col 57}{space 4}-3.719798{col 70}{space 3} 7.229963
{txt}{space 12}56  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-8.294292{col 29}{space 2} 2.367664{col 40}{space 1}   -3.50{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-12.94047{col 70}{space 3}-3.648116
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 10}_cons {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  27.0636{col 29}{space 2} 3.988542{col 40}{space 1}    6.79{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}  19.2367{col 70}{space 3}  34.8905
{txt}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. predict klarnerranneyhatallpost if year>1980 & nonsouth==1
{txt}(option xb assumed; fitted values)
(2,291 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. * 
. 
. 
. * TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *
. 
. test l.klarnerranney = 0 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  1,   997) ={res}   69.19
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0000
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY) *
. 
. test l.klarnerranney = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.klarnerranney - L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}
{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 2)}{space 1} L.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  2,   997) ={res}   36.66
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0000
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *
. 
. lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}D.real_pc_inc_ann + LD.real_pc_inc_ann + L2D.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}klarnerran~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}(1) {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0013161{col 26}{space 2}  .000916{col 37}{space 1}    1.44{col 46}{space 3}0.151{col 54}{space 4}-.0004813{col 67}{space 3} .0031136
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *
. 
. nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.klarnerranney]

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.klarnerranney]

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}klarnerran~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0014206{col 26}{space 2} .0004644{col 37}{space 1}   -3.06{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4}-.0023308{col 67}{space 3}-.0005104
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. 
. sum real_pc_inc_ann  klarnerranney  if klarnerranneyhatallpost!=. & year > 1980 & nonsouth==1, detail

        {txt}Per Capita Annual Income (1982-1984 Constant
                          Dollars)
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res} 10349.35       9970.614
{txt} 5%    {res} 11360.71       10079.15
{txt}10%    {res} 12081.45        10212.7       {txt}Obs         {res}      1,048
{txt}25%    {res} 13630.93       10259.88       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}      1,048

{txt}50%    {res} 15738.48                      {txt}Mean          {res}  15865.2
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res}   3005.2
{txt}75%    {res} 17661.71       24873.97
{txt}90%    {res} 19728.37       25955.62       {txt}Variance      {res}  9031227
{txt}95%    {res} 21049.77       26455.53       {txt}Skewness      {res}   .53443
{txt}99%    {res} 24217.59       26940.36       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 3.182193

         {txt}Annual Ranney Measure of State Legislative
               Partisan Balance (Klarner Data)
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res} 21.72549       19.76471
{txt} 5%    {res}       32       19.76471
{txt}10%    {res}       44       19.84314       {txt}Obs         {res}      1,048
{txt}25%    {res} 65.40031       19.84314       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}      1,048

{txt}50%    {res} 81.80003                      {txt}Mean          {res} 76.06895
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res} 19.67003
{txt}75%    {res} 91.25554            100
{txt}90%    {res} 96.73892            100       {txt}Variance      {res} 386.9103
{txt}95%    {res} 98.27586            100       {txt}Skewness      {res}-1.065924
{txt}99%    {res} 99.43503            100       {txt}Kurtosis      {res}  3.34905
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS  OF  real_pc_inc_ann ON klarnerranney:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD 
. 
. 
. nlcom  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / -_b[l.klarnerranney])*17661.71   -  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / -_b[l.klarnerranney])*13630.93

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}(_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / -_b[l.klarnerranney])*17661.71 - (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / -_b[l.klarnerranney])*13630.93

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}klarnerran~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-5.726046{col 26}{space 2} 1.871831{col 37}{space 1}   -3.06{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4}-9.394767{col 67}{space 3}-2.057324
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. restore
{txt}
{com}. 
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. 
. 
. preserve
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. // (4,3)  MODEL
. 
. 
. 
. *** II.A: SOUTHERN STATES (N = 14): FULL TIME PERIOD (1942 - 2010) ***
. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. 
. qui reg d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney   l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work  l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_total l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party i.state_fips  if nonsouth==0
{txt}
{com}. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 63}
       Model {c |}        Obs  ll(null)  ll(model)      df         AIC        BIC
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 63}
{ralign 12:.}{col 14}{c |}{res}{col 16}       910{col 27}-6398.472{col 38}-6293.353{col 49}    32{col 58} 12650.71{col 69} 12804.74
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 63}
{p 15 21 2}
Note: N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see {helpb bic_note:[R] BIC note}.
{p_end}

{com}. 
. 
. ******INCOME EQUATION*********
. 
. 
. newey d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney   l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work  l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_total l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party i.state_fips  if nonsouth==0, lag(8) force

{txt}Regression with Newey-West standard errors{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       910
{txt}maximum lag: {res}8{col 49}{txt}F( 31,       878){col 67}= {res}      6.57
{col 49}{txt}Prob > F{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 21}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 22}{c |}{col 34}  Newey-West
{col 1}   D.real_pc_inc_ann{col 22}{c |}      Coef.{col 34}   Std. Err.{col 46}      t{col 54}   P>|t|{col 62}     [95% Con{col 75}f. Interval]
{hline 21}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.0167459{col 34}{space 2} .0081386{col 45}{space 1}   -2.06{col 54}{space 3}0.040{col 62}{space 4}-.0327192{col 75}{space 3}-.0007725
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 1.811012{col 34}{space 2} .7604504{col 45}{space 1}    2.38{col 54}{space 3}0.017{col 62}{space 4} .3184991{col 75}{space 3} 3.303525
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} .2359185{col 34}{space 2}  .069371{col 45}{space 1}    3.40{col 54}{space 3}0.001{col 62}{space 4} .0997663{col 75}{space 3} .3720708
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}D1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} .9056539{col 34}{space 2}  1.09791{col 45}{space 1}    0.82{col 54}{space 3}0.410{col 62}{space 4}-1.249182{col 75}{space 3} 3.060489
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 16}L2D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.1027159{col 34}{space 2} .0617527{col 45}{space 1}   -1.66{col 54}{space 3}0.097{col 62}{space 4}-.2239161{col 75}{space 3} .0184843
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-2.947364{col 34}{space 2} 1.549034{col 45}{space 1}   -1.90{col 54}{space 3}0.057{col 62}{space 4}-5.987606{col 75}{space 3} .0928773
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 16}L3D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.1727139{col 34}{space 2} .0571319{col 45}{space 1}   -3.02{col 54}{space 3}0.003{col 62}{space 4} -.284845{col 75}{space 3}-.0605827
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 16}L2D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} .3032162{col 34}{space 2} .9613925{col 45}{space 1}    0.32{col 54}{space 3}0.753{col 62}{space 4} -1.58368{col 75}{space 3} 2.190112
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
csi_perc_cap_outlays {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 547.9027{col 34}{space 2} 243.9183{col 45}{space 1}    2.25{col 54}{space 3}0.025{col 62}{space 4} 69.17171{col 75}{space 3} 1026.634
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-451.7837{col 34}{space 2} 300.6174{col 45}{space 1}   -1.50{col 54}{space 3}0.133{col 62}{space 4}-1041.796{col 75}{space 3} 138.2289
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}right_to_work {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 13.55379{col 34}{space 2} 41.29402{col 45}{space 1}    0.33{col 54}{space 3}0.743{col 62}{space 4}-67.49273{col 75}{space 3} 94.60031
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 193.6343{col 34}{space 2} 60.83667{col 45}{space 1}    3.18{col 54}{space 3}0.002{col 62}{space 4} 74.23201{col 75}{space 3} 313.0366
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 1}csi_welf_perc_total {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 95.25941{col 34}{space 2} 221.3187{col 45}{space 1}    0.43{col 54}{space 3}0.667{col 62}{space 4}-339.1161{col 75}{space 3} 529.6349
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-1335.627{col 34}{space 2} 521.5109{col 45}{space 1}   -2.56{col 54}{space 3}0.011{col 62}{space 4} -2359.18{col 75}{space 3} -312.073
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}nonfarm_persinc {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 2211.442{col 34}{space 2} 383.5437{col 45}{space 1}    5.77{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4} 1458.673{col 75}{space 3} 2964.212
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 2948.078{col 34}{space 2} 791.7013{col 45}{space 1}    3.72{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4}  1394.23{col 75}{space 3} 4501.926
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 11}gov_party {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-7.080199{col 34}{space 2} 24.76239{col 45}{space 1}   -0.29{col 54}{space 3}0.775{col 62}{space 4} -55.6806{col 75}{space 3}  41.5202
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}  30.6119{col 34}{space 2} 33.82404{col 45}{space 1}    0.91{col 54}{space 3}0.366{col 62}{space 4}-35.77351{col 75}{space 3} 96.99731
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 10}state_fips {c |}
{space 18}5  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 93.95617{col 34}{space 2} 36.98095{col 45}{space 1}    2.54{col 54}{space 3}0.011{col 62}{space 4} 21.37478{col 75}{space 3} 166.5376
{txt}{space 17}12  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-42.05661{col 34}{space 2} 51.65362{col 45}{space 1}   -0.81{col 54}{space 3}0.416{col 62}{space 4}-143.4356{col 75}{space 3} 59.32238
{txt}{space 17}13  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-24.45079{col 34}{space 2} 47.55904{col 45}{space 1}   -0.51{col 54}{space 3}0.607{col 62}{space 4}-117.7935{col 75}{space 3}  68.8919
{txt}{space 17}21  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-84.18809{col 34}{space 2} 65.76502{col 45}{space 1}   -1.28{col 54}{space 3}0.201{col 62}{space 4}-213.2631{col 75}{space 3} 44.88691
{txt}{space 17}22  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}  6.48357{col 34}{space 2} 45.58901{col 45}{space 1}    0.14{col 54}{space 3}0.887{col 62}{space 4} -82.9926{col 75}{space 3} 95.95974
{txt}{space 17}28  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 50.03933{col 34}{space 2}   39.845{col 45}{space 1}    1.26{col 54}{space 3}0.210{col 62}{space 4}-28.16324{col 75}{space 3} 128.2419
{txt}{space 17}37  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 16.74099{col 34}{space 2} 42.71447{col 45}{space 1}    0.39{col 54}{space 3}0.695{col 62}{space 4}-67.09341{col 75}{space 3} 100.5754
{txt}{space 17}40  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-34.51119{col 34}{space 2} 52.84638{col 45}{space 1}   -0.65{col 54}{space 3}0.514{col 62}{space 4}-138.2312{col 75}{space 3} 69.20879
{txt}{space 17}45  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-40.24404{col 34}{space 2} 39.85162{col 45}{space 1}   -1.01{col 54}{space 3}0.313{col 62}{space 4}-118.4596{col 75}{space 3} 37.97153
{txt}{space 17}47  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-105.5561{col 34}{space 2} 47.50105{col 45}{space 1}   -2.22{col 54}{space 3}0.027{col 62}{space 4} -198.785{col 75}{space 3}-12.32721
{txt}{space 17}48  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-9.035544{col 34}{space 2} 52.53985{col 45}{space 1}   -0.17{col 54}{space 3}0.863{col 62}{space 4}-112.1539{col 75}{space 3} 94.08281
{txt}{space 17}51  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 14.86733{col 34}{space 2} 49.37671{col 45}{space 1}    0.30{col 54}{space 3}0.763{col 62}{space 4}-82.04283{col 75}{space 3} 111.7775
{txt}{space 17}54  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-127.3321{col 34}{space 2} 68.08241{col 45}{space 1}   -1.87{col 54}{space 3}0.062{col 62}{space 4}-260.9553{col 75}{space 3} 6.291218
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 15}_cons {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-1926.436{col 34}{space 2} 324.2613{col 45}{space 1}   -5.94{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4}-2562.854{col 75}{space 3}-1290.019
{txt}{hline 21}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. predict real_pc_inc_annhatallfull
{txt}(option xb assumed; fitted values)
(196 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TESTING INCOME ERROR CORRECTION RATE *
. 
. test l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  1,   878) ={res}    4.23
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0399
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * TESTING INCOME FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY) *
. 
. test l.real_pc_inc_ann = l.klarnerranney = 0

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.real_pc_inc_ann - L.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}
{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 2)}{space 1} L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  2,   878) ={res}    3.19
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0415
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. * ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *
. 
. lincom d.klarnerranney +  l.d.klarnerranney +  l2.d.klarnerranney 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}D.klarnerranney + LD.klarnerranney + L2D.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}real_pc_in~n{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}(1) {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.738494{col 26}{space 2} 2.382976{col 37}{space 1}   -0.73{col 46}{space 3}0.466{col 54}{space 4}-6.415489{col 67}{space 3}   2.9385
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. * TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *
. 
. nlcom _b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] 

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}_b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}real_pc_in~n{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 108.1468{col 26}{space 2} 45.69825{col 37}{space 1}    2.37{col 46}{space 3}0.018{col 54}{space 4} 18.57987{col 67}{space 3} 197.7137
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. *
. 
. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. 
. 
. ******PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********
. 
. qui regress d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips  if nonsouth==0
{txt}
{com}. 
. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 63}
       Model {c |}        Obs  ll(null)  ll(model)      df         AIC        BIC
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 63}
{ralign 12:.}{col 14}{c |}{res}{col 16}       910{col 27}-311.1313{col 38}-248.9806{col 49}    30{col 58} 557.9612{col 69} 702.3646
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 63}
{p 15 21 2}
Note: N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see {helpb bic_note:[R] BIC note}.
{p_end}

{com}. 
. *
. 
. newey d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips  if nonsouth==0, lag(8) force

{txt}Regression with Newey-West standard errors{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       910
{txt}maximum lag: {res}8{col 49}{txt}F( 29,       880){col 67}= {res}      2.88
{col 49}{txt}Prob > F{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 17}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.              {col 18}{c |}{col 30}  Newey-West
{col 1}ihsklarnerranney{col 18}{c |}      Coef.{col 30}   Std. Err.{col 42}      t{col 50}   P>|t|{col 58}     [95% Con{col 71}f. Interval]
{hline 17}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
ihsklarnerranney {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0643735{col 30}{space 2} .0174465{col 41}{space 1}   -3.69{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-.0986151{col 71}{space 3} -.030132
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 1}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0000222{col 30}{space 2} 4.90e-06{col 41}{space 1}    4.53{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4} .0000126{col 71}{space 3} .0000318
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
ihsklarnerranney {c |}
{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0019329{col 30}{space 2} .0473553{col 41}{space 1}   -0.04{col 50}{space 3}0.967{col 58}{space 4}-.0948754{col 71}{space 3} .0910095
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 1}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 13}D1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0000479{col 30}{space 2} .0000269{col 41}{space 1}    1.78{col 50}{space 3}0.076{col 58}{space 4}-4.96e-06{col 71}{space 3} .0001008
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
ihsklarnerranney {c |}
{space 12}L2D. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.2369238{col 30}{space 2} .0547447{col 41}{space 1}   -4.33{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-.3443691{col 71}{space 3}-.1294784
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 1}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0001151{col 30}{space 2} .0000383{col 41}{space 1}    3.00{col 50}{space 3}0.003{col 58}{space 4} .0000399{col 71}{space 3} .0001902
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
ihsklarnerranney {c |}
{space 12}L3D. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0329063{col 30}{space 2} .0308797{col 41}{space 1}   -1.07{col 50}{space 3}0.287{col 58}{space 4}-.0935127{col 71}{space 3} .0277001
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 1}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 12}L2D. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0000283{col 30}{space 2} .0000424{col 41}{space 1}    0.67{col 50}{space 3}0.505{col 58}{space 4}-.0000549{col 71}{space 3} .0001114
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 7}gov_party {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0840236{col 30}{space 2} .0298072{col 41}{space 1}   -2.82{col 50}{space 3}0.005{col 58}{space 4}-.1425251{col 71}{space 3} -.025522
{txt}{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0159641{col 30}{space 2} .0253826{col 41}{space 1}    0.63{col 50}{space 3}0.530{col 58}{space 4}-.0338534{col 71}{space 3} .0657816
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 5}dem_unified {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .1326258{col 30}{space 2} .0298549{col 41}{space 1}    4.44{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4} .0740307{col 71}{space 3} .1912209
{txt}{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0544678{col 30}{space 2} .0246064{col 41}{space 1}   -2.21{col 50}{space 3}0.027{col 58}{space 4} -.102762{col 71}{space 3}-.0061737
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 5}rep_unified {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.1064147{col 30}{space 2} .0336576{col 41}{space 1}   -3.16{col 50}{space 3}0.002{col 58}{space 4}-.1724732{col 71}{space 3}-.0403562
{txt}{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}  .023727{col 30}{space 2} .0270223{col 41}{space 1}    0.88{col 50}{space 3}0.380{col 58}{space 4}-.0293088{col 71}{space 3} .0767627
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 2}electedjudges1 {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .1177935{col 30}{space 2} .0349815{col 41}{space 1}    3.37{col 50}{space 3}0.001{col 58}{space 4} .0491366{col 71}{space 3} .1864504
{txt}{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0199692{col 30}{space 2} .0275093{col 41}{space 1}   -0.73{col 50}{space 3}0.468{col 58}{space 4}-.0739607{col 71}{space 3} .0340222
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 6}state_fips {c |}
{space 14}5  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0025608{col 30}{space 2} .0704564{col 41}{space 1}    0.04{col 50}{space 3}0.971{col 58}{space 4}-.1357214{col 71}{space 3}  .140843
{txt}{space 13}12  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .1484804{col 30}{space 2} .0768199{col 41}{space 1}    1.93{col 50}{space 3}0.054{col 58}{space 4}-.0022912{col 71}{space 3}  .299252
{txt}{space 13}13  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}  .024757{col 30}{space 2} .0707175{col 41}{space 1}    0.35{col 50}{space 3}0.726{col 58}{space 4}-.1140376{col 71}{space 3} .1635517
{txt}{space 13}21  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0737268{col 30}{space 2} .0705413{col 41}{space 1}    1.05{col 50}{space 3}0.296{col 58}{space 4}-.0647221{col 71}{space 3} .2121758
{txt}{space 13}22  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0016312{col 30}{space 2} .0707827{col 41}{space 1}    0.02{col 50}{space 3}0.982{col 58}{space 4}-.1372915{col 71}{space 3} .1405539
{txt}{space 13}28  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0409349{col 30}{space 2} .0708727{col 41}{space 1}    0.58{col 50}{space 3}0.564{col 58}{space 4}-.0981643{col 71}{space 3} .1800341
{txt}{space 13}37  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0390923{col 30}{space 2} .0695069{col 41}{space 1}    0.56{col 50}{space 3}0.574{col 58}{space 4}-.0973263{col 71}{space 3} .1755108
{txt}{space 13}40  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0900789{col 30}{space 2} .0691406{col 41}{space 1}    1.30{col 50}{space 3}0.193{col 58}{space 4}-.0456208{col 71}{space 3} .2257785
{txt}{space 13}45  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .1851277{col 30}{space 2} .0911446{col 41}{space 1}    2.03{col 50}{space 3}0.043{col 58}{space 4} .0062415{col 71}{space 3} .3640139
{txt}{space 13}47  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .1101731{col 30}{space 2}  .071909{col 41}{space 1}    1.53{col 50}{space 3}0.126{col 58}{space 4}-.0309601{col 71}{space 3} .2513064
{txt}{space 13}48  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0176343{col 30}{space 2} .0767784{col 41}{space 1}    0.23{col 50}{space 3}0.818{col 58}{space 4}-.1330558{col 71}{space 3} .1683245
{txt}{space 13}51  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .1370302{col 30}{space 2} .0752355{col 41}{space 1}    1.82{col 50}{space 3}0.069{col 58}{space 4}-.0106319{col 71}{space 3} .2846922
{txt}{space 13}54  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0518359{col 30}{space 2} .0697036{col 41}{space 1}    0.74{col 50}{space 3}0.457{col 58}{space 4}-.0849688{col 71}{space 3} .1886405
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 11}_cons {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.1436437{col 30}{space 2} .0825146{col 41}{space 1}   -1.74{col 50}{space 3}0.082{col 58}{space 4}-.3055921{col 71}{space 3} .0183047
{txt}{hline 17}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. predict ihsklarnerranneyhatallfull if nonsouth==0
{txt}(option xb assumed; fitted values)
(2,429 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *
. 
. test l.ihsklarnerranney = 0 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.ihsklarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  1,   880) ={res}   13.61
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0002
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY) *
. 
. test l.ihsklarnerranney = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.ihsklarnerranney - L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}
{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 2)}{space 1} L.ihsklarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  2,   880) ={res}   10.27
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0000
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *
. 
. lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}D.real_pc_inc_ann + LD.real_pc_inc_ann + L2D.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}ihsklarner~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}(1) {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0001912{col 26}{space 2} .0000596{col 37}{space 1}    3.21{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4} .0000742{col 67}{space 3} .0003083
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *
. 
. nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.ihsklarnerranney]

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.ihsklarnerranney]

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}ihsklarner~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0003449{col 26}{space 2} .0000564{col 37}{space 1}    6.12{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0002344{col 67}{space 3} .0004554
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. 
. 
. 
. // (4,3)  MODEL
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *** II.B: SOUTHERN STATES (N = 14): PRE-PARTISAN ALIGNMENT TIME PERIOD (1942 - 1980)***
. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. qui reg d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_total l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified i.state_fips  if year <=1980 & nonsouth==0
{txt}
{com}. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 63}
       Model {c |}        Obs  ll(null)  ll(model)      df         AIC        BIC
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 63}
{ralign 12:.}{col 14}{c |}{res}{col 16}       490{col 27}-3409.109{col 38}-3264.539{col 49}    34{col 58} 6597.078{col 69} 6739.688
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 63}
{p 15 21 2}
Note: N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see {helpb bic_note:[R] BIC note}.
{p_end}

{com}. 
. 
. ******INCOME EQUATION*********
. 
. 
. newey d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_total l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified i.state_fips  if year <=1980 & nonsouth==0, lag(6) force
{txt}note: L.rep_unified omitted because of collinearity
note: LD.rep_unified omitted because of collinearity

Regression with Newey-West standard errors{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       490
{txt}maximum lag: {res}6{col 49}{txt}F( 33,       456){col 67}= {res}     18.38
{col 49}{txt}Prob > F{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 21}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 22}{c |}{col 34}  Newey-West
{col 1}   D.real_pc_inc_ann{col 22}{c |}      Coef.{col 34}   Std. Err.{col 46}      t{col 54}   P>|t|{col 62}     [95% Con{col 75}f. Interval]
{hline 21}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} -.014744{col 34}{space 2} .0091148{col 45}{space 1}   -1.62{col 54}{space 3}0.106{col 62}{space 4}-.0326562{col 75}{space 3} .0031683
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 4.132711{col 34}{space 2} 1.166234{col 45}{space 1}    3.54{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4} 1.840852{col 75}{space 3} 6.424571
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}  .243651{col 34}{space 2}  .049191{col 45}{space 1}    4.95{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4} .1469819{col 75}{space 3} .3403202
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}D1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 2.794232{col 34}{space 2} 1.373221{col 45}{space 1}    2.03{col 54}{space 3}0.042{col 62}{space 4} .0956048{col 75}{space 3} 5.492858
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 16}L2D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.3451405{col 34}{space 2}  .048046{col 45}{space 1}   -7.18{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4}-.4395596{col 75}{space 3}-.2507215
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-1.832377{col 34}{space 2} 1.770312{col 45}{space 1}   -1.04{col 54}{space 3}0.301{col 62}{space 4}-5.311358{col 75}{space 3} 1.646603
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 16}L3D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.1199501{col 34}{space 2} .0405435{col 45}{space 1}   -2.96{col 54}{space 3}0.003{col 62}{space 4}-.1996254{col 75}{space 3}-.0402748
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 16}L2D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} .0306502{col 34}{space 2} 1.232084{col 45}{space 1}    0.02{col 54}{space 3}0.980{col 62}{space 4}-2.390616{col 75}{space 3} 2.451916
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
csi_perc_cap_outlays {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 1278.719{col 34}{space 2}  260.382{col 45}{space 1}    4.91{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4} 767.0213{col 75}{space 3} 1790.416
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-1101.795{col 34}{space 2} 330.0495{col 45}{space 1}   -3.34{col 54}{space 3}0.001{col 62}{space 4}-1750.401{col 75}{space 3}-453.1879
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}right_to_work {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-46.85637{col 34}{space 2} 44.13134{col 45}{space 1}   -1.06{col 54}{space 3}0.289{col 62}{space 4}-133.5824{col 75}{space 3} 39.86965
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 218.0049{col 34}{space 2} 64.63968{col 45}{space 1}    3.37{col 54}{space 3}0.001{col 62}{space 4} 90.97626{col 75}{space 3} 345.0335
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 1}csi_welf_perc_total {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} -391.701{col 34}{space 2} 322.0884{col 45}{space 1}   -1.22{col 54}{space 3}0.225{col 62}{space 4}-1024.663{col 75}{space 3} 241.2606
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-423.0098{col 34}{space 2} 740.8145{col 45}{space 1}   -0.57{col 54}{space 3}0.568{col 62}{space 4}-1878.844{col 75}{space 3} 1032.824
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}nonfarm_persinc {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 2295.527{col 34}{space 2} 374.1276{col 45}{space 1}    6.14{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4} 1560.299{col 75}{space 3} 3030.755
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 2850.677{col 34}{space 2} 608.6999{col 45}{space 1}    4.68{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4} 1654.472{col 75}{space 3} 4046.882
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 11}gov_party {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 11.88365{col 34}{space 2} 69.14885{col 45}{space 1}    0.17{col 54}{space 3}0.864{col 62}{space 4}-124.0063{col 75}{space 3} 147.7736
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-127.2135{col 34}{space 2} 55.91337{col 45}{space 1}   -2.28{col 54}{space 3}0.023{col 62}{space 4}-237.0933{col 75}{space 3}-17.33367
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 9}dem_unified {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-41.87419{col 34}{space 2} 68.35252{col 45}{space 1}   -0.61{col 54}{space 3}0.540{col 62}{space 4}-176.1992{col 75}{space 3} 92.45082
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 201.6042{col 34}{space 2} 61.40015{col 45}{space 1}    3.28{col 54}{space 3}0.001{col 62}{space 4} 80.94191{col 75}{space 3} 322.2666
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 9}rep_unified {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}        0{col 34}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}        0{col 34}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 20} {c |}
{space 10}state_fips {c |}
{space 18}5  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 133.7157{col 34}{space 2} 60.33455{col 45}{space 1}    2.22{col 54}{space 3}0.027{col 62}{space 4} 15.14749{col 75}{space 3}  252.284
{txt}{space 17}12  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-172.1041{col 34}{space 2} 65.42439{col 45}{space 1}   -2.63{col 54}{space 3}0.009{col 62}{space 4}-300.6748{col 75}{space 3}-43.53345
{txt}{space 17}13  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-82.07925{col 34}{space 2}  54.0467{col 45}{space 1}   -1.52{col 54}{space 3}0.130{col 62}{space 4}-188.2907{col 75}{space 3} 24.13224
{txt}{space 17}21  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-353.3128{col 34}{space 2} 101.4458{col 45}{space 1}   -3.48{col 54}{space 3}0.001{col 62}{space 4} -552.672{col 75}{space 3}-153.9535
{txt}{space 17}22  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-42.67729{col 34}{space 2} 64.44242{col 45}{space 1}   -0.66{col 54}{space 3}0.508{col 62}{space 4}-169.3182{col 75}{space 3} 83.96366
{txt}{space 17}28  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 85.90564{col 34}{space 2} 56.46931{col 45}{space 1}    1.52{col 54}{space 3}0.129{col 62}{space 4}-25.06671{col 75}{space 3}  196.878
{txt}{space 17}37  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-54.86761{col 34}{space 2} 54.29283{col 45}{space 1}   -1.01{col 54}{space 3}0.313{col 62}{space 4}-161.5628{col 75}{space 3} 51.82758
{txt}{space 17}40  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-81.06941{col 34}{space 2} 74.40389{col 45}{space 1}   -1.09{col 54}{space 3}0.276{col 62}{space 4}-227.2864{col 75}{space 3} 65.14762
{txt}{space 17}45  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-88.83755{col 34}{space 2} 59.93419{col 45}{space 1}   -1.48{col 54}{space 3}0.139{col 62}{space 4} -206.619{col 75}{space 3} 28.94392
{txt}{space 17}47  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-298.1543{col 34}{space 2} 74.27923{col 45}{space 1}   -4.01{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4}-444.1263{col 75}{space 3}-152.1822
{txt}{space 17}48  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-70.52646{col 34}{space 2} 73.54664{col 45}{space 1}   -0.96{col 54}{space 3}0.338{col 62}{space 4}-215.0588{col 75}{space 3} 74.00591
{txt}{space 17}51  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-159.6308{col 34}{space 2} 57.41786{col 45}{space 1}   -2.78{col 54}{space 3}0.006{col 62}{space 4}-272.4673{col 75}{space 3}-46.79438
{txt}{space 17}54  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-407.8831{col 34}{space 2} 97.44948{col 45}{space 1}   -4.19{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4}-599.3888{col 75}{space 3}-216.3773
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 15}_cons {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-1959.582{col 34}{space 2}   299.96{col 45}{space 1}   -6.53{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4}-2549.057{col 75}{space 3}-1370.106
{txt}{hline 21}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. predict real_pc_inc_annhatallpre if year<=1980 & nonsouth==0
{txt}(option xb assumed; fitted values)
(2,849 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TESTING INCOME ERROR CORRECTION RATE *
. 
. test l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  1,   456) ={res}    2.62
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.1064
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * TESTING INCOME FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENIETY)*
. 
. test l.real_pc_inc_ann = l.klarnerranney = 0

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.real_pc_inc_ann - L.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}
{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 2)}{space 1} L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  2,   456) ={res}    6.42
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0018
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *
. 
. lincom  d.klarnerranney +  l.d.klarnerranney +  l2.d.klarnerranney 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}D.klarnerranney + LD.klarnerranney + L2D.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}real_pc_in~n{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}(1) {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .9925043{col 26}{space 2} 2.923999{col 37}{space 1}    0.34{col 46}{space 3}0.734{col 54}{space 4} -4.75368{col 67}{space 3} 6.738689
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *
. 
. nlcom _b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] 

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}_b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}real_pc_in~n{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 280.2985{col 26}{space 2} 166.3002{col 37}{space 1}    1.69{col 46}{space 3}0.092{col 54}{space 4}-45.64398{col 67}{space 3}  606.241
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. sum klarnerranney  if real_pc_inc_annhatallpre!=. & year<=1980 & nonsouth==0, detail

         {txt}Annual Ranney Measure of State Legislative
               Partisan Balance (Klarner Data)
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res}        0              0
{txt} 5%    {res}        0              0
{txt}10%    {res}        0              0       {txt}Obs         {res}        490
{txt}25%    {res} 1.923077              0       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}        490

{txt}50%    {res} 13.16667                      {txt}Mean          {res} 22.19799
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res} 23.77415
{txt}75%    {res} 39.39394       86.86869
{txt}90%    {res} 61.15196       89.89899       {txt}Variance      {res} 565.2102
{txt}95%    {res} 72.29412       90.90909       {txt}Skewness      {res} .9737869
{txt}99%    {res} 85.85859       90.90909       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 2.871527
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF  klarnerranney ON real_pc_inc_ann:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF klarnerranney MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF klarnerranney FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD *
. 
. 
. nlcom  (_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])* 39.39394  -  (_b[l.klarnerranney]  / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])* 1.923077

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}(_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])* 39.39394 - (_b[l.klarnerranney]  / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])* 1.923077

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}real_pc_in~n{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 10503.03{col 26}{space 2} 6231.414{col 37}{space 1}    1.69{col 46}{space 3}0.092{col 54}{space 4}-1710.319{col 67}{space 3} 22716.37
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. 
. 
. 
. ******PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********
. 
. qui regress d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips  if year <=1980 & nonsouth==0
{txt}
{com}. 
. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 63}
       Model {c |}        Obs  ll(null)  ll(model)      df         AIC        BIC
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 63}
{ralign 12:.}{col 14}{c |}{res}{col 16}       490{col 27}-294.1032{col 38}-243.5743{col 49}    28{col 58} 543.1485{col 69} 660.5919
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 63}
{p 15 21 2}
Note: N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see {helpb bic_note:[R] BIC note}.
{p_end}

{com}. 
. *
. 
. newey d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips  if year <=1980 & nonsouth==0, lag(6) force
{txt}note: L.rep_unified omitted because of collinearity
note: LD.rep_unified omitted because of collinearity

Regression with Newey-West standard errors{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       490
{txt}maximum lag: {res}6{col 49}{txt}F( 27,       462){col 67}= {res}      2.75
{col 49}{txt}Prob > F{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 17}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.              {col 18}{c |}{col 30}  Newey-West
{col 1}ihsklarnerranney{col 18}{c |}      Coef.{col 30}   Std. Err.{col 42}      t{col 50}   P>|t|{col 58}     [95% Con{col 71}f. Interval]
{hline 17}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
ihsklarnerranney {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.1382705{col 30}{space 2} .0343175{col 41}{space 1}   -4.03{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-.2057082{col 71}{space 3}-.0708328
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 1}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0000384{col 30}{space 2} .0000135{col 41}{space 1}    2.84{col 50}{space 3}0.005{col 58}{space 4} .0000118{col 71}{space 3} .0000649
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
ihsklarnerranney {c |}
{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0379656{col 30}{space 2} .0550721{col 41}{space 1}    0.69{col 50}{space 3}0.491{col 58}{space 4}-.0702572{col 71}{space 3} .1461884
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 1}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 13}D1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0001184{col 30}{space 2} .0000605{col 41}{space 1}    1.96{col 50}{space 3}0.051{col 58}{space 4}-4.07e-07{col 71}{space 3} .0002373
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
ihsklarnerranney {c |}
{space 12}L2D. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.2425225{col 30}{space 2} .0606772{col 41}{space 1}   -4.00{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-.3617601{col 71}{space 3} -.123285
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 1}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0002471{col 30}{space 2} .0000974{col 41}{space 1}    2.54{col 50}{space 3}0.012{col 58}{space 4} .0000556{col 71}{space 3} .0004385
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
ihsklarnerranney {c |}
{space 12}L3D. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0083139{col 30}{space 2} .0397468{col 41}{space 1}   -0.21{col 50}{space 3}0.834{col 58}{space 4}-.0864208{col 71}{space 3} .0697931
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 1}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 12}L2D. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0001419{col 30}{space 2} .0000825{col 41}{space 1}    1.72{col 50}{space 3}0.086{col 58}{space 4}-.0000202{col 71}{space 3}  .000304
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 7}gov_party {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0785626{col 30}{space 2} .0706484{col 41}{space 1}    1.11{col 50}{space 3}0.267{col 58}{space 4}-.0602694{col 71}{space 3} .2173947
{txt}{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0751276{col 30}{space 2} .0617506{col 41}{space 1}   -1.22{col 50}{space 3}0.224{col 58}{space 4}-.1964745{col 71}{space 3} .0462194
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 5}dem_unified {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0466052{col 30}{space 2} .0520081{col 41}{space 1}    0.90{col 50}{space 3}0.371{col 58}{space 4}-.0555966{col 71}{space 3}  .148807
{txt}{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0239778{col 30}{space 2} .0493266{col 41}{space 1}   -0.49{col 50}{space 3}0.627{col 58}{space 4}-.1209101{col 71}{space 3} .0729544
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 5}rep_unified {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}        0{col 30}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}        0{col 30}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 16} {c |}
{space 2}electedjudges1 {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .1049117{col 30}{space 2} .0784103{col 41}{space 1}    1.34{col 50}{space 3}0.182{col 58}{space 4}-.0491733{col 71}{space 3} .2589966
{txt}{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0478102{col 30}{space 2} .0636757{col 41}{space 1}    0.75{col 50}{space 3}0.453{col 58}{space 4}-.0773197{col 71}{space 3}   .17294
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 6}state_fips {c |}
{space 14}5  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0917062{col 30}{space 2} .1091636{col 41}{space 1}    0.84{col 50}{space 3}0.401{col 58}{space 4}-.1228125{col 71}{space 3} .3062249
{txt}{space 13}12  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .3664903{col 30}{space 2} .1147693{col 41}{space 1}    3.19{col 50}{space 3}0.002{col 58}{space 4} .1409558{col 71}{space 3} .5920248
{txt}{space 13}13  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .2195899{col 30}{space 2} .1126882{col 41}{space 1}    1.95{col 50}{space 3}0.052{col 58}{space 4} -.001855{col 71}{space 3} .4410347
{txt}{space 13}21  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .4562345{col 30}{space 2} .1560631{col 41}{space 1}    2.92{col 50}{space 3}0.004{col 58}{space 4} .1495531{col 71}{space 3} .7629158
{txt}{space 13}22  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0140865{col 30}{space 2} .1050363{col 41}{space 1}    0.13{col 50}{space 3}0.893{col 58}{space 4}-.1923216{col 71}{space 3} .2204946
{txt}{space 13}28  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}  .092748{col 30}{space 2}  .105427{col 41}{space 1}    0.88{col 50}{space 3}0.379{col 58}{space 4}-.1144278{col 71}{space 3} .2999238
{txt}{space 13}37  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .3010582{col 30}{space 2} .1241324{col 41}{space 1}    2.43{col 50}{space 3}0.016{col 58}{space 4} .0571241{col 71}{space 3} .5449923
{txt}{space 13}40  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .3753236{col 30}{space 2} .1353186{col 41}{space 1}    2.77{col 50}{space 3}0.006{col 58}{space 4} .1094074{col 71}{space 3} .6412399
{txt}{space 13}45  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .2474926{col 30}{space 2} .1442311{col 41}{space 1}    1.72{col 50}{space 3}0.087{col 58}{space 4}-.0359377{col 71}{space 3} .5309229
{txt}{space 13}47  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .4761431{col 30}{space 2}  .140632{col 41}{space 1}    3.39{col 50}{space 3}0.001{col 58}{space 4} .1997855{col 71}{space 3} .7525006
{txt}{space 13}48  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0814604{col 30}{space 2} .1244302{col 41}{space 1}    0.65{col 50}{space 3}0.513{col 58}{space 4} -.163059{col 71}{space 3} .3259797
{txt}{space 13}51  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .4203055{col 30}{space 2} .1188868{col 41}{space 1}    3.54{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4} .1866797{col 71}{space 3} .6539313
{txt}{space 13}54  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .4705656{col 30}{space 2} .1553619{col 41}{space 1}    3.03{col 50}{space 3}0.003{col 58}{space 4}  .165262{col 71}{space 3} .7758692
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 11}_cons {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.3610105{col 30}{space 2} .1536132{col 41}{space 1}   -2.35{col 50}{space 3}0.019{col 58}{space 4}-.6628777{col 71}{space 3}-.0591433
{txt}{hline 17}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. predict ihsklarnerranneyhatallpre if year<=1980 & nonsouth==0
{txt}(option xb assumed; fitted values)
(2,849 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
.  
. * TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *
. 
. test l.ihsklarnerranney = 0 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.ihsklarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  1,   462) ={res}   16.23
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0001
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENIETY)*
. 
. test l.ihsklarnerranney = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.ihsklarnerranney - L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}
{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 2)}{space 1} L.ihsklarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  2,   462) ={res}    8.13
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0003
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. * ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *
. 
. lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}D.real_pc_inc_ann + LD.real_pc_inc_ann + L2D.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}ihsklarner~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}(1) {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0005074{col 26}{space 2} .0001296{col 37}{space 1}    3.91{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0002526{col 67}{space 3} .0007621
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *
. 
. nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.ihsklarnerranney]

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.ihsklarnerranney]

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}ihsklarner~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0002774{col 26}{space 2} .0000666{col 37}{space 1}    4.16{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0001468{col 67}{space 3}  .000408
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. sum real_pc_inc_ann   if ihsklarnerranneyhatallpre!=. & year<=1980 & nonsouth==0, detail

        {txt}Per Capita Annual Income (1982-1984 Constant
                          Dollars)
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res} 3252.807       2933.336
{txt} 5%    {res} 3832.054       2952.088
{txt}10%    {res} 4173.577       3099.246       {txt}Obs         {res}        490
{txt}25%    {res} 4972.713       3175.111       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}        490

{txt}50%    {res} 6451.461                      {txt}Mean          {res} 6898.252
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res} 2313.137
{txt}75%    {res} 8860.249        12169.1
{txt}90%    {res}  10164.4       12264.53       {txt}Variance      {res}  5350604
{txt}95%    {res} 10965.88       12302.72       {txt}Skewness      {res} .4170721
{txt}99%    {res} 12042.43       12331.84       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 2.093014
{txt}
{com}. 
. *
. 
. 
. * TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS  OF  real_pc_inc_ann ON ihsklarnerranney:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD 
. 
. 
. nlcom  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / -_b[l.ihsklarnerranney])*8860.249   -  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / -_b[l.ihsklarnerranney])*4972.713

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}(_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / -_b[l.ihsklarnerranney])*8860.249 - (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / -_b[l.ihsklarnerranney])*4972.713

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}ihsklarner~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.078333{col 26}{space 2} .2590114{col 37}{space 1}    4.16{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5706804{col 67}{space 3} 1.585986
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
.   
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. 
. 
. 
. 
. // (4,3)  MODEL
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *** II.C: SOUTHERN STATES (N = 14): POST-PARTISAN ALIGNMENT TIME PERIOD (1981 - 2010) ***
. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. 
. qui reg d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work  l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_total l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified i.state_fips  if year >1980 & nonsouth==0
{txt}
{com}. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 63}
       Model {c |}        Obs  ll(null)  ll(model)      df         AIC        BIC
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 63}
{ralign 12:.}{col 14}{c |}{res}{col 16}       420{col 27} -2982.74{col 38}-2929.726{col 49}    36{col 58} 5931.452{col 69} 6076.902
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 63}
{p 15 21 2}
Note: N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see {helpb bic_note:[R] BIC note}.
{p_end}

{com}. 
. 
. ******INCOME EQUATION*********
. 
. newey d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work  l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_total l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified i.state_fips  if year >1980 & nonsouth==0, lag(5) force

{txt}Regression with Newey-West standard errors{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       420
{txt}maximum lag: {res}5{col 49}{txt}F( 35,       384){col 67}= {res}      6.22
{col 49}{txt}Prob > F{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 21}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 22}{c |}{col 34}  Newey-West
{col 1}   D.real_pc_inc_ann{col 22}{c |}      Coef.{col 34}   Std. Err.{col 46}      t{col 54}   P>|t|{col 62}     [95% Con{col 75}f. Interval]
{hline 21}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.1119231{col 34}{space 2} .0224007{col 45}{space 1}   -5.00{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4}-.1559665{col 75}{space 3}-.0678796
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}  3.91462{col 34}{space 2} 1.752858{col 45}{space 1}    2.23{col 54}{space 3}0.026{col 62}{space 4} .4682186{col 75}{space 3} 7.361021
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} .1514687{col 34}{space 2}  .085856{col 45}{space 1}    1.76{col 54}{space 3}0.078{col 62}{space 4} -.017338{col 75}{space 3} .3202754
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}D1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.1168915{col 34}{space 2} 1.940968{col 45}{space 1}   -0.06{col 54}{space 3}0.952{col 62}{space 4}-3.933147{col 75}{space 3} 3.699364
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 16}L2D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} .1503107{col 34}{space 2}  .089929{col 45}{space 1}    1.67{col 54}{space 3}0.095{col 62}{space 4}-.0265042{col 75}{space 3} .3271257
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-6.831332{col 34}{space 2} 1.983646{col 45}{space 1}   -3.44{col 54}{space 3}0.001{col 62}{space 4} -10.7315{col 75}{space 3}-2.931164
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 16}L3D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.1104093{col 34}{space 2} .0896353{col 45}{space 1}   -1.23{col 54}{space 3}0.219{col 62}{space 4}-.2866467{col 75}{space 3} .0658281
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 16}L2D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-3.499833{col 34}{space 2} 1.813793{col 45}{space 1}   -1.93{col 54}{space 3}0.054{col 62}{space 4}-7.066042{col 75}{space 3} .0663769
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
csi_perc_cap_outlays {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-2469.306{col 34}{space 2} 828.1874{col 45}{space 1}   -2.98{col 54}{space 3}0.003{col 62}{space 4}-4097.656{col 75}{space 3}-840.9561
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 2205.405{col 34}{space 2} 1047.934{col 45}{space 1}    2.10{col 54}{space 3}0.036{col 62}{space 4} 144.9984{col 75}{space 3} 4265.813
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}right_to_work {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 62.54242{col 34}{space 2} 92.83601{col 45}{space 1}    0.67{col 54}{space 3}0.501{col 62}{space 4}-119.9881{col 75}{space 3}  245.073
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-237.2805{col 34}{space 2} 92.54958{col 45}{space 1}   -2.56{col 54}{space 3}0.011{col 62}{space 4}-419.2479{col 75}{space 3}-55.31318
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 1}csi_welf_perc_total {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 1562.911{col 34}{space 2} 568.0428{col 45}{space 1}    2.75{col 54}{space 3}0.006{col 62}{space 4} 446.0477{col 75}{space 3} 2679.775
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-2328.483{col 34}{space 2} 795.9503{col 45}{space 1}   -2.93{col 54}{space 3}0.004{col 62}{space 4} -3893.45{col 75}{space 3}-763.5169
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}nonfarm_persinc {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 2967.628{col 34}{space 2} 4616.464{col 45}{space 1}    0.64{col 54}{space 3}0.521{col 62}{space 4}-6109.083{col 75}{space 3} 12044.34
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 5835.787{col 34}{space 2} 3188.935{col 45}{space 1}    1.83{col 54}{space 3}0.068{col 62}{space 4}-434.1739{col 75}{space 3} 12105.75
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 11}gov_party {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} -33.1709{col 34}{space 2} 76.11005{col 45}{space 1}   -0.44{col 54}{space 3}0.663{col 62}{space 4}-182.8155{col 75}{space 3} 116.4737
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 78.25329{col 34}{space 2} 86.84737{col 45}{space 1}    0.90{col 54}{space 3}0.368{col 62}{space 4}-92.50262{col 75}{space 3} 249.0092
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 9}dem_unified {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 8.445541{col 34}{space 2}  84.1436{col 45}{space 1}    0.10{col 54}{space 3}0.920{col 62}{space 4}-156.9943{col 75}{space 3} 173.8854
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-44.89593{col 34}{space 2} 85.10218{col 45}{space 1}   -0.53{col 54}{space 3}0.598{col 62}{space 4}-212.2205{col 75}{space 3} 122.4287
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 9}rep_unified {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-61.19622{col 34}{space 2}  107.095{col 45}{space 1}   -0.57{col 54}{space 3}0.568{col 62}{space 4}-271.7623{col 75}{space 3} 149.3699
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 106.7984{col 34}{space 2} 79.99495{col 45}{space 1}    1.34{col 54}{space 3}0.183{col 62}{space 4}-50.48454{col 75}{space 3} 264.0813
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 10}state_fips {c |}
{space 18}5  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} -10.4804{col 34}{space 2} 100.1391{col 45}{space 1}   -0.10{col 54}{space 3}0.917{col 62}{space 4}  -207.37{col 75}{space 3} 186.4092
{txt}{space 17}12  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 202.9182{col 34}{space 2} 89.50644{col 45}{space 1}    2.27{col 54}{space 3}0.024{col 62}{space 4} 26.93413{col 75}{space 3} 378.9023
{txt}{space 17}13  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 131.2377{col 34}{space 2} 72.24666{col 45}{space 1}    1.82{col 54}{space 3}0.070{col 62}{space 4}-10.81082{col 75}{space 3} 273.2863
{txt}{space 17}21  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-64.43231{col 34}{space 2} 128.5496{col 45}{space 1}   -0.50{col 54}{space 3}0.616{col 62}{space 4}-317.1816{col 75}{space 3} 188.3169
{txt}{space 17}22  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 39.85683{col 34}{space 2} 83.28402{col 45}{space 1}    0.48{col 54}{space 3}0.633{col 62}{space 4} -123.893{col 75}{space 3} 203.6066
{txt}{space 17}28  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-187.0704{col 34}{space 2} 60.23982{col 45}{space 1}   -3.11{col 54}{space 3}0.002{col 62}{space 4}-305.5116{col 75}{space 3}-68.62919
{txt}{space 17}37  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 61.89188{col 34}{space 2} 64.20275{col 45}{space 1}    0.96{col 54}{space 3}0.336{col 62}{space 4}-64.34105{col 75}{space 3} 188.1248
{txt}{space 17}40  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-71.55512{col 34}{space 2} 84.44092{col 45}{space 1}   -0.85{col 54}{space 3}0.397{col 62}{space 4}-237.5796{col 75}{space 3} 94.46932
{txt}{space 17}45  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-85.88795{col 34}{space 2} 73.11929{col 45}{space 1}   -1.17{col 54}{space 3}0.241{col 62}{space 4}-229.6522{col 75}{space 3} 57.87635
{txt}{space 17}47  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-166.8646{col 34}{space 2} 90.02753{col 45}{space 1}   -1.85{col 54}{space 3}0.065{col 62}{space 4}-343.8732{col 75}{space 3} 10.14404
{txt}{space 17}48  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 128.8994{col 34}{space 2} 85.37266{col 45}{space 1}    1.51{col 54}{space 3}0.132{col 62}{space 4}-38.95702{col 75}{space 3} 296.7558
{txt}{space 17}51  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 401.0864{col 34}{space 2} 97.23376{col 45}{space 1}    4.12{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4} 209.9092{col 75}{space 3} 592.2636
{txt}{space 17}54  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-83.52858{col 34}{space 2} 125.4489{col 45}{space 1}   -0.67{col 54}{space 3}0.506{col 62}{space 4}-330.1812{col 75}{space 3} 163.1241
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 15}_cons {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-1625.322{col 34}{space 2}  4561.26{col 45}{space 1}   -0.36{col 54}{space 3}0.722{col 62}{space 4}-10593.49{col 75}{space 3} 7342.849
{txt}{hline 21}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. predict real_pc_inc_annhatallpost if year>1980 & nonsouth==0
{txt}(option xb assumed; fitted values)
(2,919 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TESTING INCOME ERROR CORRECTION RATE *
. 
. test l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  1,   384) ={res}   24.96
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0000
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * TESTING INCOME FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENIETY)*
. 
. test l.real_pc_inc_ann = l.klarnerranney = 0

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.real_pc_inc_ann - L.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}
{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 2)}{space 1} L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  2,   384) ={res}   12.91
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0000
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. * ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *
. 
. lincom  d.klarnerranney +  l.d.klarnerranney +  l2.d.klarnerranney 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}D.klarnerranney + LD.klarnerranney + L2D.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}real_pc_in~n{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}(1) {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-10.44806{col 26}{space 2} 3.484498{col 37}{space 1}   -3.00{col 46}{space 3}0.003{col 54}{space 4}-17.29914{col 67}{space 3}-3.596973
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. * TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *
. 
. nlcom _b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] 

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}_b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}real_pc_in~n{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 34.97599{col 26}{space 2} 12.79614{col 37}{space 1}    2.73{col 46}{space 3}0.006{col 54}{space 4} 9.896024{col 67}{space 3} 60.05596
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. sum klarnerranney real_pc_inc_ann  if real_pc_inc_annhatallpost!=. & year>1980 & nonsouth==0, detail

         {txt}Annual Ranney Measure of State Legislative
               Partisan Balance (Klarner Data)
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res}  9.52381       4.761905
{txt} 5%    {res} 20.42857       4.761905
{txt}10%    {res} 26.88235        9.52381       {txt}Obs         {res}        420
{txt}25%    {res} 46.58065        9.52381       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}        420

{txt}50%    {res} 65.38146                      {txt}Mean          {res} 63.07963
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res} 24.28337
{txt}75%    {res} 83.33333        99.6129
{txt}90%    {res} 93.36551       99.82796       {txt}Variance      {res}  589.682
{txt}95%    {res}     97.5       99.82796       {txt}Skewness      {res}-.4392186
{txt}99%    {res}  99.6129            100       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 2.245943

        {txt}Per Capita Annual Income (1982-1984 Constant
                          Dollars)
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res} 9164.067       8530.043
{txt} 5%    {res} 9893.871       8604.584
{txt}10%    {res}  10517.3       8624.711       {txt}Obs         {res}        420
{txt}25%    {res}    11966       9026.411       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}        420

{txt}50%    {res} 13484.73                      {txt}Mean          {res} 13632.63
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res} 2401.816
{txt}75%    {res} 15294.64       20300.61
{txt}90%    {res} 16587.38       20446.41       {txt}Variance      {res}  5768719
{txt}95%    {res} 17515.28       20757.53       {txt}Skewness      {res} .3038151
{txt}99%    {res} 20132.85       20864.72       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 2.816816
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF klarnerranney ON real_pc_inc_ann:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF klarnerranney MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF klarnerranney FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD *
. 
. 
. nlcom  (_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*83.33333  -  (_b[l.klarnerranney]  / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*46.58065 

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}(_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*83.33333 - (_b[l.klarnerranney]  / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*46.58065

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}real_pc_in~n{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1285.461{col 26}{space 2} 470.2923{col 37}{space 1}    2.73{col 46}{space 3}0.006{col 54}{space 4} 363.7054{col 67}{space 3} 2207.217
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. 
. qui reg d.klarnerranney  l.klarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.klarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.klarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.klarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips  if year >1980 & nonsouth==0
{txt}
{com}. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 63}
       Model {c |}        Obs  ll(null)  ll(model)      df         AIC        BIC
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 63}
{ralign 12:.}{col 14}{c |}{res}{col 16}       420{col 27}-1391.884{col 38} -1346.02{col 49}    30{col 58}  2752.04{col 69} 2873.247
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 63}
{p 15 21 2}
Note: N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see {helpb bic_note:[R] BIC note}.
{p_end}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. ******PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********
. 
. 
. newey d.klarnerranney  l.klarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.klarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.klarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.klarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips  if year >1980 & nonsouth==0, lag(5) force

{txt}Regression with Newey-West standard errors{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       420
{txt}maximum lag: {res}5{col 49}{txt}F( 29,       390){col 67}= {res}      3.69
{col 49}{txt}Prob > F{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 17}{c |}{col 29}  Newey-West
{col 1}D.klarnerranney{col 17}{c |}      Coef.{col 29}   Std. Err.{col 41}      t{col 49}   P>|t|{col 57}     [95% Con{col 70}f. Interval]
{hline 16}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 2}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.1862165{col 29}{space 2} .0308726{col 40}{space 1}   -6.03{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.2469141{col 70}{space 3}-.1255189
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0021301{col 29}{space 2} .0003743{col 40}{space 1}    5.69{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0013942{col 70}{space 3} .0028659
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 2}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0203586{col 29}{space 2} .0378788{col 40}{space 1}    0.54{col 49}{space 3}0.591{col 57}{space 4}-.0541136{col 70}{space 3} .0948308
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 12}D1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  .000565{col 29}{space 2}  .000902{col 40}{space 1}    0.63{col 49}{space 3}0.531{col 57}{space 4}-.0012083{col 70}{space 3} .0023383
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 2}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 11}L2D. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0743001{col 29}{space 2} .0646557{col 40}{space 1}    1.15{col 49}{space 3}0.251{col 57}{space 4}-.0528171{col 70}{space 3} .2014173
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  .002281{col 29}{space 2} .0012463{col 40}{space 1}    1.83{col 49}{space 3}0.068{col 57}{space 4}-.0001693{col 70}{space 3} .0047313
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 2}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 11}L3D. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0067002{col 29}{space 2} .0363267{col 40}{space 1}    0.18{col 49}{space 3}0.854{col 57}{space 4}-.0647205{col 70}{space 3} .0781209
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 11}L2D. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0031006{col 29}{space 2} .0011831{col 40}{space 1}   -2.62{col 49}{space 3}0.009{col 57}{space 4}-.0054266{col 70}{space 3}-.0007746
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 6}gov_party {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-5.399186{col 29}{space 2} 1.417057{col 40}{space 1}   -3.81{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-8.185212{col 70}{space 3}-2.613159
{txt}{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 2.324002{col 29}{space 2}  1.47982{col 40}{space 1}    1.57{col 49}{space 3}0.117{col 57}{space 4}-.5854213{col 70}{space 3} 5.233425
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 4}dem_unified {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 6.661987{col 29}{space 2} 1.601264{col 40}{space 1}    4.16{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} 3.513797{col 70}{space 3} 9.810177
{txt}{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-3.686984{col 29}{space 2} 1.551126{col 40}{space 1}   -2.38{col 49}{space 3}0.018{col 57}{space 4}-6.736599{col 70}{space 3}-.6373686
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 4}rep_unified {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-8.021663{col 29}{space 2} 1.728742{col 40}{space 1}   -4.64{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-11.42048{col 70}{space 3}-4.622843
{txt}{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 4.243989{col 29}{space 2} 1.399626{col 40}{space 1}    3.03{col 49}{space 3}0.003{col 57}{space 4} 1.492234{col 70}{space 3} 6.995744
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 1}electedjudges1 {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 2.933426{col 29}{space 2} 1.195357{col 40}{space 1}    2.45{col 49}{space 3}0.015{col 57}{space 4} .5832762{col 70}{space 3} 5.283576
{txt}{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} -1.18639{col 29}{space 2} 3.627192{col 40}{space 1}   -0.33{col 49}{space 3}0.744{col 57}{space 4}-8.317686{col 70}{space 3} 5.944906
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 5}state_fips {c |}
{space 13}5  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-1.573625{col 29}{space 2}   1.3978{col 40}{space 1}   -1.13{col 49}{space 3}0.261{col 57}{space 4}-4.321792{col 70}{space 3} 1.174541
{txt}{space 12}12  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 3.898721{col 29}{space 2} 1.927102{col 40}{space 1}    2.02{col 49}{space 3}0.044{col 57}{space 4} .1099115{col 70}{space 3}  7.68753
{txt}{space 12}13  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-1.197834{col 29}{space 2} 1.397905{col 40}{space 1}   -0.86{col 49}{space 3}0.392{col 57}{space 4}-3.946207{col 70}{space 3} 1.550538
{txt}{space 12}21  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 4.406508{col 29}{space 2} 1.523034{col 40}{space 1}    2.89{col 49}{space 3}0.004{col 57}{space 4} 1.412123{col 70}{space 3} 7.400892
{txt}{space 12}22  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.6590498{col 29}{space 2} 1.223622{col 40}{space 1}   -0.54{col 49}{space 3}0.590{col 57}{space 4}-3.064771{col 70}{space 3} 1.746671
{txt}{space 12}28  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 2.997821{col 29}{space 2} 1.503022{col 40}{space 1}    1.99{col 49}{space 3}0.047{col 57}{space 4} .0427807{col 70}{space 3} 5.952862
{txt}{space 12}37  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}   1.3179{col 29}{space 2} 1.675463{col 40}{space 1}    0.79{col 49}{space 3}0.432{col 57}{space 4} -1.97617{col 70}{space 3} 4.611969
{txt}{space 12}40  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 3.636619{col 29}{space 2}   1.5966{col 40}{space 1}    2.28{col 49}{space 3}0.023{col 57}{space 4} .4975992{col 70}{space 3}  6.77564
{txt}{space 12}45  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 8.921079{col 29}{space 2} 2.203697{col 40}{space 1}    4.05{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} 4.588468{col 70}{space 3} 13.25369
{txt}{space 12}47  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 4.301742{col 29}{space 2} 1.534307{col 40}{space 1}    2.80{col 49}{space 3}0.005{col 57}{space 4} 1.285195{col 70}{space 3} 7.318289
{txt}{space 12}48  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 1.557045{col 29}{space 2} 1.462747{col 40}{space 1}    1.06{col 49}{space 3}0.288{col 57}{space 4}-1.318812{col 70}{space 3} 4.432901
{txt}{space 12}51  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .9256908{col 29}{space 2} 1.756295{col 40}{space 1}    0.53{col 49}{space 3}0.598{col 57}{space 4}  -2.5273{col 70}{space 3} 4.378681
{txt}{space 12}54  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-1.584627{col 29}{space 2} 1.513092{col 40}{space 1}   -1.05{col 49}{space 3}0.296{col 57}{space 4}-4.559465{col 70}{space 3} 1.390211
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 10}_cons {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-19.23456{col 29}{space 2} 4.383153{col 40}{space 1}   -4.39{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-27.85212{col 70}{space 3}-10.61699
{txt}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. predict klarnerranneyhatallpost if year>1980 & nonsouth==0
{txt}(option xb assumed; fitted values)
(2,919 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
. *
.  
. * TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *
. 
. test l.klarnerranney = 0 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  1,   390) ={res}   36.38
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0000
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENIETY) *
. 
. test l.klarnerranney = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.klarnerranney - L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}
{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 2)}{space 1} L.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  2,   390) ={res}   19.38
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0000
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. * ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *
. 
. lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}D.real_pc_inc_ann + LD.real_pc_inc_ann + L2D.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}klarnerran~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}(1) {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0002546{col 26}{space 2} .0016695{col 37}{space 1}   -0.15{col 46}{space 3}0.879{col 54}{space 4}-.0035369{col 67}{space 3} .0030278
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *
. 
. nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.klarnerranney]

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.klarnerranney]

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}klarnerran~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0114386{col 26}{space 2} .0012856{col 37}{space 1}    8.90{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0089189{col 67}{space 3} .0139582
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. sum real_pc_inc_ann  if klarnerranneyhatallpost !=. & year > 1980 & nonsouth==0, detail

        {txt}Per Capita Annual Income (1982-1984 Constant
                          Dollars)
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res} 9164.067       8530.043
{txt} 5%    {res} 9893.871       8604.584
{txt}10%    {res}  10517.3       8624.711       {txt}Obs         {res}        420
{txt}25%    {res}    11966       9026.411       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}        420

{txt}50%    {res} 13484.73                      {txt}Mean          {res} 13632.63
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res} 2401.816
{txt}75%    {res} 15294.64       20300.61
{txt}90%    {res} 16587.38       20446.41       {txt}Variance      {res}  5768719
{txt}95%    {res} 17515.28       20757.53       {txt}Skewness      {res} .3038151
{txt}99%    {res} 20132.85       20864.72       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 2.816816
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF  real_pc_inc_ann ON klarnerranney:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD 
. 
. 
. nlcom  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / -_b[l.klarnerranney])*15294.64   -  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.klarnerranney])*11966

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}(_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / -_b[l.klarnerranney])*15294.64 - (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.klarnerranney])*11966

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}klarnerran~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 38.07491{col 26}{space 2}  4.27915{col 37}{space 1}    8.90{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 29.68793{col 67}{space 3} 46.46189
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. restore 
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. 
. 
. 
. preserve
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. //(4,3)  MODEL
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *** III.A: NEW SOUTH STATES (N = 5): FULL TIME PERIOD (1942 -2010) ***
. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. 
. qui reg d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work  l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_total l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified i.state_fips  if newsouth==1
{txt}
{com}. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 63}
       Model {c |}        Obs  ll(null)  ll(model)      df         AIC        BIC
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 63}
{ralign 12:.}{col 14}{c |}{res}{col 16}       325{col 27}-2319.461{col 38}-2266.654{col 49}    27{col 58} 4587.308{col 69} 4689.471
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 63}
{p 15 21 2}
Note: N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see {helpb bic_note:[R] BIC note}.
{p_end}

{com}. 
. 
. ******INCOME EQUATION*********
. 
. 
. newey d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work  l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_total l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified i.state_fips  if newsouth==1, lag(8) force

{txt}Regression with Newey-West standard errors{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       325
{txt}maximum lag: {res}8{col 49}{txt}F( 26,       298){col 67}= {res}      6.13
{col 49}{txt}Prob > F{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 21}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 22}{c |}{col 34}  Newey-West
{col 1}   D.real_pc_inc_ann{col 22}{c |}      Coef.{col 34}   Std. Err.{col 46}      t{col 54}   P>|t|{col 62}     [95% Con{col 75}f. Interval]
{hline 21}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.0328862{col 34}{space 2} .0157915{col 45}{space 1}   -2.08{col 54}{space 3}0.038{col 62}{space 4}-.0639631{col 75}{space 3}-.0018092
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 2.075033{col 34}{space 2} 1.553798{col 45}{space 1}    1.34{col 54}{space 3}0.183{col 62}{space 4} -.982774{col 75}{space 3} 5.132841
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} .3359792{col 34}{space 2} .0782769{col 45}{space 1}    4.29{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4} .1819336{col 75}{space 3} .4900247
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}D1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 1.255509{col 34}{space 2} 1.943629{col 45}{space 1}    0.65{col 54}{space 3}0.519{col 62}{space 4}-2.569468{col 75}{space 3} 5.080485
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 16}L2D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.0907411{col 34}{space 2} .0698465{col 45}{space 1}   -1.30{col 54}{space 3}0.195{col 62}{space 4} -.228196{col 75}{space 3} .0467138
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-4.896798{col 34}{space 2} 3.031003{col 45}{space 1}   -1.62{col 54}{space 3}0.107{col 62}{space 4}-10.86168{col 75}{space 3} 1.068084
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 16}L3D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.1620892{col 34}{space 2} .0768373{col 45}{space 1}   -2.11{col 54}{space 3}0.036{col 62}{space 4}-.3133016{col 75}{space 3}-.0108768
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 16}L2D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 1.286096{col 34}{space 2} 1.536805{col 45}{space 1}    0.84{col 54}{space 3}0.403{col 62}{space 4}-1.738269{col 75}{space 3} 4.310462
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
csi_perc_cap_outlays {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-16.16753{col 34}{space 2} 489.3529{col 45}{space 1}   -0.03{col 54}{space 3}0.974{col 62}{space 4}-979.1927{col 75}{space 3} 946.8576
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-230.1963{col 34}{space 2} 589.8633{col 45}{space 1}   -0.39{col 54}{space 3}0.697{col 62}{space 4}-1391.022{col 75}{space 3}  930.629
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}right_to_work {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 103.3434{col 34}{space 2}  87.4601{col 45}{space 1}    1.18{col 54}{space 3}0.238{col 62}{space 4}-68.77424{col 75}{space 3} 275.4611
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 196.9883{col 34}{space 2} 114.7668{col 45}{space 1}    1.72{col 54}{space 3}0.087{col 62}{space 4}-28.86778{col 75}{space 3} 422.8443
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 1}csi_welf_perc_total {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-158.4999{col 34}{space 2} 534.9844{col 45}{space 1}   -0.30{col 54}{space 3}0.767{col 62}{space 4}-1211.326{col 75}{space 3} 894.3261
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-1529.346{col 34}{space 2} 1282.838{col 45}{space 1}   -1.19{col 54}{space 3}0.234{col 62}{space 4}-4053.914{col 75}{space 3} 995.2232
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}nonfarm_persinc {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 3366.572{col 34}{space 2} 961.0349{col 45}{space 1}    3.50{col 54}{space 3}0.001{col 62}{space 4} 1475.297{col 75}{space 3} 5257.847
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}  3333.55{col 34}{space 2} 1627.807{col 45}{space 1}    2.05{col 54}{space 3}0.041{col 62}{space 4} 130.0976{col 75}{space 3} 6537.003
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 11}gov_party {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 118.2093{col 34}{space 2} 62.61395{col 45}{space 1}    1.89{col 54}{space 3}0.060{col 62}{space 4}-5.012252{col 75}{space 3} 241.4308
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-11.54282{col 34}{space 2} 91.81786{col 45}{space 1}   -0.13{col 54}{space 3}0.900{col 62}{space 4}-192.2364{col 75}{space 3} 169.1507
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 9}dem_unified {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-140.4256{col 34}{space 2} 72.56539{col 45}{space 1}   -1.94{col 54}{space 3}0.054{col 62}{space 4}-283.2311{col 75}{space 3} 2.379939
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 56.77568{col 34}{space 2} 78.15838{col 45}{space 1}    0.73{col 54}{space 3}0.468{col 62}{space 4}-97.03662{col 75}{space 3}  210.588
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 9}rep_unified {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-52.39933{col 34}{space 2} 112.3291{col 45}{space 1}   -0.47{col 54}{space 3}0.641{col 62}{space 4}-273.4582{col 75}{space 3} 168.6595
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 83.41122{col 34}{space 2} 86.36071{col 45}{space 1}    0.97{col 54}{space 3}0.335{col 62}{space 4}-86.54291{col 75}{space 3} 253.3653
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 10}state_fips {c |}
{space 17}13  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 32.37822{col 34}{space 2} 64.54484{col 45}{space 1}    0.50{col 54}{space 3}0.616{col 62}{space 4}-94.64323{col 75}{space 3} 159.3997
{txt}{space 17}37  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 43.81211{col 34}{space 2} 56.03408{col 45}{space 1}    0.78{col 54}{space 3}0.435{col 62}{space 4}-66.46053{col 75}{space 3} 154.0847
{txt}{space 17}48  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 120.2508{col 34}{space 2} 81.07643{col 45}{space 1}    1.48{col 54}{space 3}0.139{col 62}{space 4} -39.3041{col 75}{space 3} 279.8057
{txt}{space 17}51  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 26.67333{col 34}{space 2} 59.06994{col 45}{space 1}    0.45{col 54}{space 3}0.652{col 62}{space 4}-89.57375{col 75}{space 3} 142.9204
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 15}_cons {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-2907.463{col 34}{space 2} 821.1401{col 45}{space 1}   -3.54{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4}-4523.431{col 75}{space 3}-1291.495
{txt}{hline 21}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. predict real_pc_inc_annhatallfull if newsouth==1
{txt}(option xb assumed; fitted values)
(3,014 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TESTING INCOME ERROR CORRECTION RATE *
. 
. test l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  1,   298) ={res}    4.34
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0381
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * TESTING INCOME FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY)*
. 
. test l.real_pc_inc_ann = l.klarnerranney = 0

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.real_pc_inc_ann - L.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}
{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 2)}{space 1} L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  2,   298) ={res}    2.17
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.1161
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *
. 
. lincom  d.klarnerranney +  l.d.klarnerranney  +  l2.d.klarnerranney 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}D.klarnerranney + LD.klarnerranney + L2D.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}real_pc_in~n{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}(1) {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.355192{col 26}{space 2} 4.514872{col 37}{space 1}   -0.52{col 46}{space 3}0.602{col 54}{space 4}-11.24026{col 67}{space 3}  6.52988
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *
. 
. nlcom _b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] 

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}_b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}real_pc_in~n{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 63.09742{col 26}{space 2} 36.82866{col 37}{space 1}    1.71{col 46}{space 3}0.087{col 54}{space 4}-9.085429{col 67}{space 3} 135.2803
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. 
. 
. ******PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********
. 
. 
. qui regress d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips  if newsouth==1
{txt}
{com}. 
. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 63}
       Model {c |}        Obs  ll(null)  ll(model)      df         AIC        BIC
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 63}
{ralign 12:.}{col 14}{c |}{res}{col 16}       325{col 27}-113.9815{col 38} -72.0137{col 49}    21{col 58} 186.0274{col 69} 265.4877
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 63}
{p 15 21 2}
Note: N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see {helpb bic_note:[R] BIC note}.
{p_end}

{com}. 
. *
. 
. newey d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips  if newsouth==1, lag(8) force

{txt}Regression with Newey-West standard errors{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       325
{txt}maximum lag: {res}8{col 49}{txt}F( 20,       304){col 67}= {res}      3.68
{col 49}{txt}Prob > F{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 17}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.              {col 18}{c |}{col 30}  Newey-West
{col 1}ihsklarnerranney{col 18}{c |}      Coef.{col 30}   Std. Err.{col 42}      t{col 50}   P>|t|{col 58}     [95% Con{col 71}f. Interval]
{hline 17}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
ihsklarnerranney {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0775734{col 30}{space 2} .0331659{col 41}{space 1}   -2.34{col 50}{space 3}0.020{col 58}{space 4}-.1428371{col 71}{space 3}-.0123096
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 1}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}  .000023{col 30}{space 2} 8.46e-06{col 41}{space 1}    2.71{col 50}{space 3}0.007{col 58}{space 4} 6.32e-06{col 71}{space 3} .0000396
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
ihsklarnerranney {c |}
{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0662973{col 30}{space 2} .0657475{col 41}{space 1}    1.01{col 50}{space 3}0.314{col 58}{space 4}-.0630805{col 71}{space 3} .1956751
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 1}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 13}D1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0000702{col 30}{space 2} .0000477{col 41}{space 1}    1.47{col 50}{space 3}0.142{col 58}{space 4}-.0000236{col 71}{space 3} .0001641
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
ihsklarnerranney {c |}
{space 12}L2D. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.3305968{col 30}{space 2} .0912462{col 41}{space 1}   -3.62{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-.5101508{col 71}{space 3}-.1510427
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 1}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0001184{col 30}{space 2} .0000567{col 41}{space 1}    2.09{col 50}{space 3}0.038{col 58}{space 4} 6.80e-06{col 71}{space 3}   .00023
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
ihsklarnerranney {c |}
{space 12}L3D. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0591777{col 30}{space 2} .0549089{col 41}{space 1}   -1.08{col 50}{space 3}0.282{col 58}{space 4}-.1672274{col 71}{space 3}  .048872
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 1}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 12}L2D. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0000643{col 30}{space 2} .0000721{col 41}{space 1}    0.89{col 50}{space 3}0.374{col 58}{space 4}-.0000777{col 71}{space 3} .0002062
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 7}gov_party {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0648056{col 30}{space 2} .0418691{col 41}{space 1}   -1.55{col 50}{space 3}0.123{col 58}{space 4}-.1471955{col 71}{space 3} .0175842
{txt}{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0367754{col 30}{space 2}  .048996{col 41}{space 1}    0.75{col 50}{space 3}0.453{col 58}{space 4}-.0596389{col 71}{space 3} .1331896
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 5}dem_unified {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .1676994{col 30}{space 2} .0549388{col 41}{space 1}    3.05{col 50}{space 3}0.002{col 58}{space 4} .0595908{col 71}{space 3} .2758079
{txt}{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.1020166{col 30}{space 2} .0392184{col 41}{space 1}   -2.60{col 50}{space 3}0.010{col 58}{space 4}-.1791904{col 71}{space 3}-.0248428
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 5}rep_unified {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0559491{col 30}{space 2} .0561442{col 41}{space 1}   -1.00{col 50}{space 3}0.320{col 58}{space 4}-.1664295{col 71}{space 3} .0545313
{txt}{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0340948{col 30}{space 2} .0480895{col 41}{space 1}    0.71{col 50}{space 3}0.479{col 58}{space 4}-.0605357{col 71}{space 3} .1287253
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 2}electedjudges1 {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .1624229{col 30}{space 2} .0772824{col 41}{space 1}    2.10{col 50}{space 3}0.036{col 58}{space 4} .0103467{col 71}{space 3} .3144991
{txt}{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0655426{col 30}{space 2}  .053738{col 41}{space 1}    1.22{col 50}{space 3}0.224{col 58}{space 4}-.0402029{col 71}{space 3}  .171288
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 6}state_fips {c |}
{space 13}13  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.1644013{col 30}{space 2} .0792359{col 41}{space 1}   -2.07{col 50}{space 3}0.039{col 58}{space 4}-.3203216{col 71}{space 3} -.008481
{txt}{space 13}37  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.1318484{col 30}{space 2} .0755281{col 41}{space 1}   -1.75{col 50}{space 3}0.082{col 58}{space 4}-.2804725{col 71}{space 3} .0167756
{txt}{space 13}48  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.1652375{col 30}{space 2} .0791538{col 41}{space 1}   -2.09{col 50}{space 3}0.038{col 58}{space 4}-.3209961{col 71}{space 3}-.0094789
{txt}{space 13}51  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0144932{col 30}{space 2} .0398921{col 41}{space 1}    0.36{col 50}{space 3}0.717{col 58}{space 4}-.0640065{col 71}{space 3} .0929929
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 11}_cons {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0214221{col 30}{space 2} .1234044{col 41}{space 1}   -0.17{col 50}{space 3}0.862{col 58}{space 4}-.2642572{col 71}{space 3} .2214129
{txt}{hline 17}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. predict ihsklarnerranneyhatallfull if newsouth==1
{txt}(option xb assumed; fitted values)
(3,014 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
.  
. * TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *
. 
. test l.ihsklarnerranney = 0 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.ihsklarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  1,   304) ={res}    5.47
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0200
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY)*
. 
. test l.ihsklarnerranney = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.ihsklarnerranney - L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}
{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 2)}{space 1} L.ihsklarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  2,   304) ={res}    3.71
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0256
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *
. 
. lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}D.real_pc_inc_ann + LD.real_pc_inc_ann + L2D.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}ihsklarner~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}(1) {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0002529{col 26}{space 2} .0000875{col 37}{space 1}    2.89{col 46}{space 3}0.004{col 54}{space 4} .0000807{col 67}{space 3} .0004252
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *
. 
. nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.ihsklarnerranney]

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.ihsklarnerranney]

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}ihsklarner~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0002962{col 26}{space 2} .0000734{col 37}{space 1}    4.03{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0001523{col 67}{space 3} .0004401
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. 
. 
. 
. 
. //(4,3)  MODEL
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *** III.B: NEW SOUTH STATES (N = 5): PRE-PARTISAN ALIGNMENT TIME PERIOD (1942 - 1980) ***
. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. qui reg d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work  l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_total l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified i.state_fips  if year <=1980 & newsouth==1
{txt}
{com}. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 63}
       Model {c |}        Obs  ll(null)  ll(model)      df         AIC        BIC
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 63}
{ralign 12:.}{col 14}{c |}{res}{col 16}       175{col 27}-1227.273{col 38}-1166.298{col 49}    23{col 58} 2378.596{col 69} 2451.386
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 63}
{p 15 21 2}
Note: N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see {helpb bic_note:[R] BIC note}.
{p_end}

{com}. 
. 
. ******INCOME EQUATION*********
. 
. newey d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work  l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_total l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified i.state_fips  if year <=1980 & newsouth==1, lag(6) force
{txt}note: L.dem_unified omitted because of collinearity
note: LD.dem_unified omitted because of collinearity
note: L.rep_unified omitted because of collinearity
note: LD.rep_unified omitted because of collinearity

Regression with Newey-West standard errors{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       175
{txt}maximum lag: {res}6{col 49}{txt}F( 22,       152){col 67}= {res}     11.91
{col 49}{txt}Prob > F{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 21}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 22}{c |}{col 34}  Newey-West
{col 1}   D.real_pc_inc_ann{col 22}{c |}      Coef.{col 34}   Std. Err.{col 46}      t{col 54}   P>|t|{col 62}     [95% Con{col 75}f. Interval]
{hline 21}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.0590987{col 34}{space 2} .0190129{col 45}{space 1}   -3.11{col 54}{space 3}0.002{col 62}{space 4}-.0966624{col 75}{space 3} -.021535
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 6.941931{col 34}{space 2} 2.274842{col 45}{space 1}    3.05{col 54}{space 3}0.003{col 62}{space 4}  2.44754{col 75}{space 3} 11.43632
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} .2869118{col 34}{space 2} .0598055{col 45}{space 1}    4.80{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4} .1687543{col 75}{space 3} .4050692
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}D1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 6.845434{col 34}{space 2} 1.622567{col 45}{space 1}    4.22{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4} 3.639737{col 75}{space 3} 10.05113
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 16}L2D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.2829359{col 34}{space 2} .1067141{col 45}{space 1}   -2.65{col 54}{space 3}0.009{col 62}{space 4}-.4937703{col 75}{space 3}-.0721015
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-3.267222{col 34}{space 2} 3.684448{col 45}{space 1}   -0.89{col 54}{space 3}0.377{col 62}{space 4}-10.54656{col 75}{space 3} 4.012119
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 16}L3D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.1247485{col 34}{space 2} .0810902{col 45}{space 1}   -1.54{col 54}{space 3}0.126{col 62}{space 4}-.2849579{col 75}{space 3} .0354609
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 16}L2D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 2.114026{col 34}{space 2}  1.53652{col 45}{space 1}    1.38{col 54}{space 3}0.171{col 62}{space 4}-.9216671{col 75}{space 3}  5.14972
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
csi_perc_cap_outlays {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 664.7053{col 34}{space 2} 542.8148{col 45}{space 1}    1.22{col 54}{space 3}0.223{col 62}{space 4}-407.7307{col 75}{space 3} 1737.141
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-347.1782{col 34}{space 2} 610.0792{col 45}{space 1}   -0.57{col 54}{space 3}0.570{col 62}{space 4}-1552.508{col 75}{space 3} 858.1516
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}right_to_work {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 99.28179{col 34}{space 2} 123.2597{col 45}{space 1}    0.81{col 54}{space 3}0.422{col 62}{space 4}-144.2416{col 75}{space 3} 342.8052
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 252.7646{col 34}{space 2} 88.84096{col 45}{space 1}    2.85{col 54}{space 3}0.005{col 62}{space 4} 77.24209{col 75}{space 3} 428.2872
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 1}csi_welf_perc_total {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-460.1832{col 34}{space 2} 555.9736{col 45}{space 1}   -0.83{col 54}{space 3}0.409{col 62}{space 4}-1558.617{col 75}{space 3} 638.2505
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}  1214.25{col 34}{space 2} 1977.281{col 45}{space 1}    0.61{col 54}{space 3}0.540{col 62}{space 4}-2692.253{col 75}{space 3} 5120.753
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}nonfarm_persinc {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 3639.223{col 34}{space 2} 902.7601{col 45}{space 1}    4.03{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4} 1855.646{col 75}{space 3} 5422.801
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 2443.691{col 34}{space 2} 1496.016{col 45}{space 1}    1.63{col 54}{space 3}0.104{col 62}{space 4}-511.9782{col 75}{space 3} 5399.361
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 11}gov_party {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-120.0279{col 34}{space 2} 72.51201{col 45}{space 1}   -1.66{col 54}{space 3}0.100{col 62}{space 4}-263.2894{col 75}{space 3} 23.23366
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 213.6869{col 34}{space 2}  97.5812{col 45}{space 1}    2.19{col 54}{space 3}0.030{col 62}{space 4} 20.89631{col 75}{space 3} 406.4775
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 9}dem_unified {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}        0{col 34}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}        0{col 34}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 20} {c |}
{space 9}rep_unified {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}        0{col 34}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}        0{col 34}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 20} {c |}
{space 10}state_fips {c |}
{space 17}13  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 117.3223{col 34}{space 2} 59.54395{col 45}{space 1}    1.97{col 54}{space 3}0.051{col 62}{space 4}-.3183688{col 75}{space 3} 234.9629
{txt}{space 17}37  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 121.4952{col 34}{space 2} 58.18338{col 45}{space 1}    2.09{col 54}{space 3}0.038{col 62}{space 4} 6.542662{col 75}{space 3} 236.4478
{txt}{space 17}48  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 338.9998{col 34}{space 2} 129.1782{col 45}{space 1}    2.62{col 54}{space 3}0.010{col 62}{space 4} 83.78322{col 75}{space 3} 594.2165
{txt}{space 17}51  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-14.44742{col 34}{space 2} 66.35262{col 45}{space 1}   -0.22{col 54}{space 3}0.828{col 62}{space 4}-145.5399{col 75}{space 3} 116.6451
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 15}_cons {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-3104.048{col 34}{space 2} 734.4021{col 45}{space 1}   -4.23{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4}-4555.001{col 75}{space 3}-1653.094
{txt}{hline 21}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. predict real_pc_inc_annhatallpre if year<=1980 & newsouth==1
{txt}(option xb assumed; fitted values)
(3,164 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TESTING INCOME ERROR CORRECTION RATE *
. 
. test l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  1,   152) ={res}    9.66
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0022
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * TESTING INCOME FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY)*
. 
. test l.real_pc_inc_ann = l.klarnerranney = 0

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.real_pc_inc_ann - L.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}
{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 2)}{space 1} L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  2,   152) ={res}    6.73
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0016
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *
. 
. lincom  d.klarnerranney +  l.d.klarnerranney +  l2.d.klarnerranney 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}D.klarnerranney + LD.klarnerranney + L2D.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}real_pc_in~n{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}(1) {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 5.692238{col 26}{space 2} 4.184001{col 37}{space 1}    1.36{col 46}{space 3}0.176{col 54}{space 4}-2.574067{col 67}{space 3} 13.95854
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *
. 
. nlcom _b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] 

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}_b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}real_pc_in~n{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 117.4634{col 26}{space 2} 41.47363{col 37}{space 1}    2.83{col 46}{space 3}0.005{col 54}{space 4} 36.17659{col 67}{space 3} 198.7502
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. sum klarnerranney   if real_pc_inc_annhatallpre!=. & year<=1980 & newsouth==1, detail

         {txt}Annual Ranney Measure of State Legislative
               Partisan Balance (Klarner Data)
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res}        0              0
{txt} 5%    {res}        0              0
{txt}10%    {res} .4878049              0       {txt}Obs         {res}        175
{txt}25%    {res} 4.290876              0       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}        175

{txt}50%    {res}     13.5                      {txt}Mean          {res} 19.04453
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res} 18.52999
{txt}75%    {res} 25.56989           72.5
{txt}90%    {res} 48.16667       73.33333       {txt}Variance      {res} 343.3606
{txt}95%    {res} 60.83333       74.43978       {txt}Skewness      {res} 1.298429
{txt}99%    {res} 74.43978       74.43978       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 4.021216
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. 
. * TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF  klarnerranney ON real_pc_inc_ann:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF klarnerranney MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF klarnerranney FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD *
. 
. 
. nlcom  (_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*25.56989  -  (_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*4.290876

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}(_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*25.56989 - (_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*4.290876

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}real_pc_in~n{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 2499.506{col 26}{space 2} 882.5179{col 37}{space 1}    2.83{col 46}{space 3}0.005{col 54}{space 4} 769.8023{col 67}{space 3} 4229.209
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. 
. qui regress d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips  if year <=1980 & newsouth==1
{txt}
{com}. 
. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 63}
       Model {c |}        Obs  ll(null)  ll(model)      df         AIC        BIC
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 63}
{ralign 12:.}{col 14}{c |}{res}{col 16}       175{col 27}-109.2568{col 38}-75.76816{col 49}    17{col 58} 185.5363{col 69} 239.3377
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 63}
{p 15 21 2}
Note: N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see {helpb bic_note:[R] BIC note}.
{p_end}

{com}. 
. 
. ******PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********
. 
. newey d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips  if year <=1980 & newsouth==1, lag(6) force
{txt}note: L.dem_unified omitted because of collinearity
note: LD.dem_unified omitted because of collinearity
note: L.rep_unified omitted because of collinearity
note: LD.rep_unified omitted because of collinearity

Regression with Newey-West standard errors{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       175
{txt}maximum lag: {res}6{col 49}{txt}F( 16,       158){col 67}= {res}      4.78
{col 49}{txt}Prob > F{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 17}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.              {col 18}{c |}{col 30}  Newey-West
{col 1}ihsklarnerranney{col 18}{c |}      Coef.{col 30}   Std. Err.{col 42}      t{col 50}   P>|t|{col 58}     [95% Con{col 71}f. Interval]
{hline 17}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
ihsklarnerranney {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.1867191{col 30}{space 2}  .051719{col 41}{space 1}   -3.61{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-.2888689{col 71}{space 3}-.0845693
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 1}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0000708{col 30}{space 2} .0000235{col 41}{space 1}    3.01{col 50}{space 3}0.003{col 58}{space 4} .0000244{col 71}{space 3} .0001173
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
ihsklarnerranney {c |}
{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .1042487{col 30}{space 2} .0831738{col 41}{space 1}    1.25{col 50}{space 3}0.212{col 58}{space 4}-.0600273{col 71}{space 3} .2685246
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 1}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 13}D1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0002817{col 30}{space 2} .0001166{col 41}{space 1}    2.42{col 50}{space 3}0.017{col 58}{space 4} .0000513{col 71}{space 3}  .000512
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
ihsklarnerranney {c |}
{space 12}L2D. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.3109956{col 30}{space 2} .1011194{col 41}{space 1}   -3.08{col 50}{space 3}0.002{col 58}{space 4}-.5107158{col 71}{space 3}-.1112754
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 1}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0001946{col 30}{space 2} .0001302{col 41}{space 1}    1.49{col 50}{space 3}0.137{col 58}{space 4}-.0000627{col 71}{space 3} .0004518
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
ihsklarnerranney {c |}
{space 12}L3D. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0343784{col 30}{space 2} .0650996{col 41}{space 1}   -0.53{col 50}{space 3}0.598{col 58}{space 4} -.162956{col 71}{space 3} .0941992
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 1}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 12}L2D. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0002927{col 30}{space 2} .0001206{col 41}{space 1}    2.43{col 50}{space 3}0.016{col 58}{space 4} .0000545{col 71}{space 3} .0005309
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 7}gov_party {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .3780304{col 30}{space 2} .1415498{col 41}{space 1}    2.67{col 50}{space 3}0.008{col 58}{space 4} .0984565{col 71}{space 3} .6576044
{txt}{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.3186119{col 30}{space 2} .1722399{col 41}{space 1}   -1.85{col 50}{space 3}0.066{col 58}{space 4}-.6588016{col 71}{space 3} .0215779
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 5}dem_unified {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}        0{col 30}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}        0{col 30}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 16} {c |}
{space 5}rep_unified {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}        0{col 30}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}        0{col 30}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 16} {c |}
{space 2}electedjudges1 {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .2090577{col 30}{space 2} .1301634{col 41}{space 1}    1.61{col 50}{space 3}0.110{col 58}{space 4} -.048027{col 71}{space 3} .4661424
{txt}{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}   .03562{col 30}{space 2} .1052757{col 41}{space 1}    0.34{col 50}{space 3}0.736{col 58}{space 4}-.1723092{col 71}{space 3} .2435491
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 6}state_fips {c |}
{space 13}13  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.1851132{col 30}{space 2} .0941078{col 41}{space 1}   -1.97{col 50}{space 3}0.051{col 58}{space 4}-.3709848{col 71}{space 3} .0007583
{txt}{space 13}37  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0265506{col 30}{space 2} .0945505{col 41}{space 1}   -0.28{col 50}{space 3}0.779{col 58}{space 4}-.2132965{col 71}{space 3} .1601953
{txt}{space 13}48  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.4071019{col 30}{space 2} .1283036{col 41}{space 1}   -3.17{col 50}{space 3}0.002{col 58}{space 4}-.6605133{col 71}{space 3}-.1536905
{txt}{space 13}51  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}  .195885{col 30}{space 2} .1213833{col 41}{space 1}    1.61{col 50}{space 3}0.109{col 58}{space 4}-.0438582{col 71}{space 3} .4356281
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 11}_cons {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.4507602{col 30}{space 2} .2834824{col 41}{space 1}   -1.59{col 50}{space 3}0.114{col 58}{space 4}-1.010664{col 71}{space 3} .1091436
{txt}{hline 17}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. predict ihsklarnerranneyhatallpre if year<=1980 & newsouth==1
{txt}(option xb assumed; fitted values)
(3,164 missing values generated)

{com}. 
.  
. 
. * TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *
. 
. test l.ihsklarnerranney = 0 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.ihsklarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  1,   158) ={res}   13.03
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0004
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY)*
. 
. test l.ihsklarnerranney = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.ihsklarnerranney - L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}
{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 2)}{space 1} L.ihsklarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  2,   158) ={res}    6.61
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0017
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *
. 
. lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}D.real_pc_inc_ann + LD.real_pc_inc_ann + L2D.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}ihsklarner~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}(1) {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0007689{col 26}{space 2} .0002015{col 37}{space 1}    3.82{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .000371{col 67}{space 3} .0011669
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. * TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *
. 
. nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.ihsklarnerranney]

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.ihsklarnerranney]

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}ihsklarner~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0003794{col 26}{space 2}  .000083{col 37}{space 1}    4.57{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0002169{col 67}{space 3}  .000542
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. 
. sum real_pc_inc_ann   if ihsklarnerranneyhatallpre !=. & year<=1980 & newsouth==1, detail

        {txt}Per Capita Annual Income (1982-1984 Constant
                          Dollars)
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res} 3985.879       3938.229
{txt} 5%    {res}  4394.34       3985.879
{txt}10%    {res} 4795.101       4032.346       {txt}Obs         {res}        175
{txt}25%    {res} 5533.502       4032.384       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}        175

{txt}50%    {res} 6864.637                      {txt}Mean          {res} 7599.265
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res} 2401.131
{txt}75%    {res}  9803.36        12169.1
{txt}90%    {res} 11176.03       12264.53       {txt}Variance      {res}  5765428
{txt}95%    {res} 11976.75       12302.72       {txt}Skewness      {res} .3836934
{txt}99%    {res} 12302.72       12331.84       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 1.881785
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF real_pc_inc_ann ON ihsklarnerranney:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD 
. 
. 
. nlcom  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.ihsklarnerranney])*9803.36   -  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.ihsklarnerranney])*5533.502

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}(_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.ihsklarnerranney])*9803.36 - (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.ihsklarnerranney])*5533.502

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}ihsklarner~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.620131{col 26}{space 2} .3541842{col 37}{space 1}    4.57{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .9259426{col 67}{space 3} 2.314319
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
.   
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. 
. 
. 
. 
. //(4,3)  MODEL
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *** III.C: NEW SOUTH STATES (N = 5): POST-PARTISAN ALIGNMENT TIME PERIOD (1981 - 2010) ***
. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. qui reg d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_total l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified i.state_fips  if year >1980 & newsouth==1
{txt}
{com}. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 63}
       Model {c |}        Obs  ll(null)  ll(model)      df         AIC        BIC
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 63}
{ralign 12:.}{col 14}{c |}{res}{col 16}       150{col 27}-1087.132{col 38}-1052.044{col 49}    27{col 58} 2158.088{col 69} 2239.376
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 63}
{p 15 21 2}
Note: N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see {helpb bic_note:[R] BIC note}.
{p_end}

{com}. 
. 
. ******INCOME EQUATION*********
. 
. newey d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_total l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified i.state_fips  if year >1980 & newsouth==1, lag(5) force

{txt}Regression with Newey-West standard errors{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       150
{txt}maximum lag: {res}5{col 49}{txt}F( 26,       123){col 67}= {res}      7.10
{col 49}{txt}Prob > F{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 21}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 22}{c |}{col 34}  Newey-West
{col 1}   D.real_pc_inc_ann{col 22}{c |}      Coef.{col 34}   Std. Err.{col 46}      t{col 54}   P>|t|{col 62}     [95% Con{col 75}f. Interval]
{hline 21}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.1211681{col 34}{space 2}  .030245{col 45}{space 1}   -4.01{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4}-.1810363{col 75}{space 3}-.0612999
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-2.232547{col 34}{space 2} 2.855661{col 45}{space 1}   -0.78{col 54}{space 3}0.436{col 62}{space 4}-7.885152{col 75}{space 3} 3.420058
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} .1771707{col 34}{space 2} .1116762{col 45}{space 1}    1.59{col 54}{space 3}0.115{col 62}{space 4}-.0438854{col 75}{space 3} .3982269
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}D1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-5.101768{col 34}{space 2} 3.417106{col 45}{space 1}   -1.49{col 54}{space 3}0.138{col 62}{space 4}-11.86572{col 75}{space 3} 1.662183
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 16}L2D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}  .142903{col 34}{space 2} .1178259{col 45}{space 1}    1.21{col 54}{space 3}0.228{col 62}{space 4}-.0903261{col 75}{space 3} .3761322
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-9.761823{col 34}{space 2} 3.484744{col 45}{space 1}   -2.80{col 54}{space 3}0.006{col 62}{space 4}-16.65966{col 75}{space 3}-2.863986
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 16}L3D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.0373952{col 34}{space 2} .1261708{col 45}{space 1}   -0.30{col 54}{space 3}0.767{col 62}{space 4}-.2871426{col 75}{space 3} .2123522
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 16}L2D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} -4.11842{col 34}{space 2} 3.492232{col 45}{space 1}   -1.18{col 54}{space 3}0.241{col 62}{space 4}-11.03108{col 75}{space 3} 2.794239
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
csi_perc_cap_outlays {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-4295.634{col 34}{space 2} 1634.578{col 45}{space 1}   -2.63{col 54}{space 3}0.010{col 62}{space 4}-7531.182{col 75}{space 3}-1060.086
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 1976.651{col 34}{space 2} 1838.331{col 45}{space 1}    1.08{col 54}{space 3}0.284{col 62}{space 4}-1662.214{col 75}{space 3} 5615.515
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}right_to_work {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 20.23384{col 34}{space 2} 116.1117{col 45}{space 1}    0.17{col 54}{space 3}0.862{col 62}{space 4}-209.6022{col 75}{space 3} 250.0698
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-296.4496{col 34}{space 2} 126.2926{col 45}{space 1}   -2.35{col 54}{space 3}0.021{col 62}{space 4} -546.438{col 75}{space 3}-46.46108
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 1}csi_welf_perc_total {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 4051.591{col 34}{space 2} 1691.128{col 45}{space 1}    2.40{col 54}{space 3}0.018{col 62}{space 4} 704.1062{col 75}{space 3} 7399.076
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-4427.592{col 34}{space 2} 2035.625{col 45}{space 1}   -2.18{col 54}{space 3}0.032{col 62}{space 4}-8456.987{col 75}{space 3}-398.1965
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}nonfarm_persinc {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-20710.59{col 34}{space 2} 12885.86{col 45}{space 1}   -1.61{col 54}{space 3}0.111{col 62}{space 4}-46217.37{col 75}{space 3} 4796.187
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 17933.59{col 34}{space 2} 7939.092{col 45}{space 1}    2.26{col 54}{space 3}0.026{col 62}{space 4} 2218.648{col 75}{space 3} 33648.54
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 11}gov_party {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 159.6929{col 34}{space 2} 99.41752{col 45}{space 1}    1.61{col 54}{space 3}0.111{col 62}{space 4}-37.09799{col 75}{space 3} 356.4838
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} -37.6893{col 34}{space 2} 117.7573{col 45}{space 1}   -0.32{col 54}{space 3}0.749{col 62}{space 4}-270.7826{col 75}{space 3}  195.404
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 9}dem_unified {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-239.6528{col 34}{space 2} 91.97358{col 45}{space 1}   -2.61{col 54}{space 3}0.010{col 62}{space 4}-421.7089{col 75}{space 3}-57.59676
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 15.29839{col 34}{space 2} 120.3069{col 45}{space 1}    0.13{col 54}{space 3}0.899{col 62}{space 4}-222.8417{col 75}{space 3} 253.4385
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 9}rep_unified {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-81.70074{col 34}{space 2} 151.3577{col 45}{space 1}   -0.54{col 54}{space 3}0.590{col 62}{space 4}-381.3041{col 75}{space 3} 217.9026
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 72.38091{col 34}{space 2} 119.8705{col 45}{space 1}    0.60{col 54}{space 3}0.547{col 62}{space 4}-164.8955{col 75}{space 3} 309.6573
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 10}state_fips {c |}
{space 17}13  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-182.8804{col 34}{space 2} 147.7714{col 45}{space 1}   -1.24{col 54}{space 3}0.218{col 62}{space 4}-475.3848{col 75}{space 3}  109.624
{txt}{space 17}37  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-327.0815{col 34}{space 2}  126.281{col 45}{space 1}   -2.59{col 54}{space 3}0.011{col 62}{space 4}-577.0469{col 75}{space 3}-77.11603
{txt}{space 17}48  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} -48.7376{col 34}{space 2} 119.0202{col 45}{space 1}   -0.41{col 54}{space 3}0.683{col 62}{space 4}-284.3308{col 75}{space 3} 186.8556
{txt}{space 17}51  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 404.5459{col 34}{space 2} 152.1569{col 45}{space 1}    2.66{col 54}{space 3}0.009{col 62}{space 4} 103.3606{col 75}{space 3} 705.7312
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 15}_cons {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 22396.31{col 34}{space 2} 12851.56{col 45}{space 1}    1.74{col 54}{space 3}0.084{col 62}{space 4}-3042.577{col 75}{space 3} 47835.19
{txt}{hline 21}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. predict real_pc_inc_annhatallpost if year>1980 & newsouth==1
{txt}(option xb assumed; fitted values)
(3,189 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TESTING INCOME ERROR CORRECTION RATE *
. 
. test l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  1,   123) ={res}   16.05
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0001
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * TESTING INCOME FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENIETY)*
. 
. test l.real_pc_inc_ann = l.klarnerranney = 0

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.real_pc_inc_ann - L.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}
{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 2)}{space 1} L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  2,   123) ={res}   10.07
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0001
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. * ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *
. 
. lincom  d.klarnerranney +  l.d.klarnerranney  +  l2.d.klarnerranney 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}D.klarnerranney + LD.klarnerranney + L2D.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}real_pc_in~n{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}(1) {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-18.98201{col 26}{space 2} 7.468085{col 37}{space 1}   -2.54{col 46}{space 3}0.012{col 54}{space 4}-33.76463{col 67}{space 3}-4.199393
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *
. 
. nlcom _b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] 

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}_b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}real_pc_in~n{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -18.4252{col 26}{space 2} 25.27867{col 37}{space 1}   -0.73{col 46}{space 3}0.466{col 54}{space 4}-67.97049{col 67}{space 3} 31.12008
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. 
. sum klarnerranney  if real_pc_inc_annhatallpost!=. & year>1980 & newsouth==1, detail

         {txt}Annual Ranney Measure of State Legislative
               Partisan Balance (Klarner Data)
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res}  22.2619        22.2619
{txt} 5%    {res} 30.51587        22.2619
{txt}10%    {res} 40.06452       25.83333       {txt}Obs         {res}        150
{txt}25%    {res} 56.68817       25.83333       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}        150

{txt}50%    {res} 76.58333                      {txt}Mean          {res} 71.16566
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res} 20.01031
{txt}75%    {res} 85.82796        99.6129
{txt}90%    {res} 94.91667       99.82796       {txt}Variance      {res} 400.4125
{txt}95%    {res}       98       99.82796       {txt}Skewness      {res}-.5953372
{txt}99%    {res} 99.82796            100       {txt}Kurtosis      {res}  2.55123
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF klarnerranney ON real_pc_inc_ann:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF klarnerranney MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF klarnerranney FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD *
. 
. 
. nlcom  (_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*85.82796   -  (_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*56.68817

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}(_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*85.82796 - (_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*56.68817

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}real_pc_in~n{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-536.9065{col 26}{space 2} 736.6152{col 37}{space 1}   -0.73{col 46}{space 3}0.466{col 54}{space 4}-1980.646{col 67}{space 3} 906.8327
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. 
. qui reg d.klarnerranney  l.klarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.klarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.klarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.klarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips  if year >1980 & newsouth==1
{txt}
{com}. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 63}
       Model {c |}        Obs  ll(null)  ll(model)      df         AIC        BIC
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 63}
{ralign 12:.}{col 14}{c |}{res}{col 16}       150{col 27}-513.1636{col 38}-492.8649{col 49}    19{col 58}  1023.73{col 69} 1080.932
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 63}
{p 15 21 2}
Note: N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see {helpb bic_note:[R] BIC note}.
{p_end}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. ******PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********
. 
. 
. newey d.klarnerranney  l.klarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.klarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.klarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.klarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips  if year >1980 & newsouth==1, lag(5) force
{txt}note: LD.electedjudges1 omitted because of collinearity
note: 48.state_fips omitted because of collinearity

Regression with Newey-West standard errors{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       150
{txt}maximum lag: {res}5{col 49}{txt}F( 18,       131){col 67}= {res}      3.49
{col 49}{txt}Prob > F{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 17}{c |}{col 29}  Newey-West
{col 1}D.klarnerranney{col 17}{c |}      Coef.{col 29}   Std. Err.{col 41}      t{col 49}   P>|t|{col 57}     [95% Con{col 70}f. Interval]
{hline 16}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 2}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.1707646{col 29}{space 2} .0449381{col 40}{space 1}   -3.80{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.2596629{col 70}{space 3}-.0818664
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0014879{col 29}{space 2} .0005841{col 40}{space 1}    2.55{col 49}{space 3}0.012{col 57}{space 4} .0003325{col 70}{space 3} .0026434
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 2}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0083782{col 29}{space 2} .0559559{col 40}{space 1}   -0.15{col 49}{space 3}0.881{col 57}{space 4}-.1190724{col 70}{space 3} .1023159
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 12}D1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0009879{col 29}{space 2} .0015525{col 40}{space 1}   -0.64{col 49}{space 3}0.526{col 57}{space 4}-.0040591{col 70}{space 3} .0020832
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 2}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 11}L2D. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  .004672{col 29}{space 2}   .11796{col 40}{space 1}    0.04{col 49}{space 3}0.968{col 57}{space 4}-.2286811{col 70}{space 3} .2380251
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0043449{col 29}{space 2} .0017456{col 40}{space 1}    2.49{col 49}{space 3}0.014{col 57}{space 4} .0008916{col 70}{space 3} .0077981
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 2}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 11}L3D. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0257613{col 29}{space 2} .0672968{col 40}{space 1}   -0.38{col 49}{space 3}0.702{col 57}{space 4}-.1588905{col 70}{space 3} .1073678
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 11}L2D. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0049689{col 29}{space 2} .0020998{col 40}{space 1}   -2.37{col 49}{space 3}0.019{col 57}{space 4}-.0091229{col 70}{space 3}-.0008149
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 6}gov_party {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-2.969474{col 29}{space 2}  2.13803{col 40}{space 1}   -1.39{col 49}{space 3}0.167{col 57}{space 4}-7.199008{col 70}{space 3} 1.260059
{txt}{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 1.017208{col 29}{space 2} 1.475346{col 40}{space 1}    0.69{col 49}{space 3}0.492{col 57}{space 4}-1.901377{col 70}{space 3} 3.935794
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 4}dem_unified {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 5.741268{col 29}{space 2} 2.628921{col 40}{space 1}    2.18{col 49}{space 3}0.031{col 57}{space 4} .5406344{col 70}{space 3}  10.9419
{txt}{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-3.430493{col 29}{space 2} 1.996196{col 40}{space 1}   -1.72{col 49}{space 3}0.088{col 57}{space 4}-7.379445{col 70}{space 3}  .518459
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 4}rep_unified {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-5.897237{col 29}{space 2} 2.584893{col 40}{space 1}   -2.28{col 49}{space 3}0.024{col 57}{space 4}-11.01077{col 70}{space 3}-.7837016
{txt}{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 3.468647{col 29}{space 2} 1.837557{col 40}{space 1}    1.89{col 49}{space 3}0.061{col 57}{space 4}-.1664786{col 70}{space 3} 7.103773
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 1}electedjudges1 {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 1.083797{col 29}{space 2} 1.569715{col 40}{space 1}    0.69{col 49}{space 3}0.491{col 57}{space 4}-2.021473{col 70}{space 3} 4.189068
{txt}{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}        0{col 29}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 15} {c |}
{space 5}state_fips {c |}
{space 12}13  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-3.404461{col 29}{space 2} 1.741116{col 40}{space 1}   -1.96{col 49}{space 3}0.053{col 57}{space 4}-6.848804{col 70}{space 3} .0398808
{txt}{space 12}37  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.9528469{col 29}{space 2} 1.759048{col 40}{space 1}   -0.54{col 49}{space 3}0.589{col 57}{space 4}-4.432664{col 70}{space 3}  2.52697
{txt}{space 12}48  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}        0{col 29}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 12}51  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-1.659437{col 29}{space 2} 1.981143{col 40}{space 1}   -0.84{col 49}{space 3}0.404{col 57}{space 4}-5.578611{col 70}{space 3} 2.259736
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 10}_cons {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-7.874462{col 29}{space 2} 6.729257{col 40}{space 1}   -1.17{col 49}{space 3}0.244{col 57}{space 4}-21.18654{col 70}{space 3} 5.437613
{txt}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. predict klarnerranneyhatallpost if year>1980 & newsouth==1
{txt}(option xb assumed; fitted values)
(3,189 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *
. 
. test l.klarnerranney = 0 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  1,   131) ={res}   14.44
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0002
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY)*
. 
. test l.klarnerranney = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.klarnerranney - L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}
{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 2)}{space 1} L.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  2,   131) ={res}    7.28
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0010
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. * ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *
. 
. lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}D.real_pc_inc_ann + LD.real_pc_inc_ann + L2D.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}klarnerran~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}(1) {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.001612{col 26}{space 2} .0022989{col 37}{space 1}   -0.70{col 46}{space 3}0.484{col 54}{space 4}-.0061598{col 67}{space 3} .0029358
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. * TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *
. 
. nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.klarnerranney]

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.klarnerranney]

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}klarnerran~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0087134{col 26}{space 2} .0023348{col 37}{space 1}    3.73{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0041373{col 67}{space 3} .0132895
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. sum  real_pc_inc_ann    if klarnerranneyhatallpost!=. & year>1980 & newsouth==1, detail

        {txt}Per Capita Annual Income (1982-1984 Constant
                          Dollars)
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res} 10063.01       10054.71
{txt} 5%    {res} 11693.49       10063.01
{txt}10%    {res} 12398.59       10330.47       {txt}Obs         {res}        150
{txt}25%    {res} 13297.69       10405.05       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}        150

{txt}50%    {res} 15453.27                      {txt}Mean          {res} 15174.25
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res} 2312.597
{txt}75%    {res} 16574.21       20300.61
{txt}90%    {res} 18271.44       20446.41       {txt}Variance      {res}  5348106
{txt}95%    {res} 19043.96       20757.53       {txt}Skewness      {res} .1371925
{txt}99%    {res} 20757.53       20864.72       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 2.753477
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF  real_pc_inc_ann ON klarnerranney:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD 
. 
. 
. nlcom  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.klarnerranney])*16574.21   -  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.klarnerranney])*13297.69   

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}(_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.klarnerranney])*16574.21 - (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.klarnerranney])*13297.69

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}klarnerran~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 28.54955{col 26}{space 2}  7.64997{col 37}{space 1}    3.73{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 13.55589{col 67}{space 3} 43.54322
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. 
. restore 
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************
. 
. 
. 
. preserve
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. 
. //(5,4) MODEL
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *** IV.A: OLD SOUTH STATES (N = 9): FULL TIME PERIOD (1942 - 2010) ***
. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. qui reg d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney  l4.d.real_pc_inc_ann l3.d.klarnerranney  l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work  l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_total l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified i.state_fips  if oldsouth==1
{txt}
{com}. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 63}
       Model {c |}        Obs  ll(null)  ll(model)      df         AIC        BIC
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 63}
{ralign 12:.}{col 14}{c |}{res}{col 16}       576{col 27}-3988.246{col 38}-3933.463{col 49}    33{col 58} 7932.926{col 69} 8076.678
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 63}
{p 15 21 2}
Note: N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see {helpb bic_note:[R] BIC note}.
{p_end}

{com}. 
. 
. ******INCOME EQUATION*********
. 
. newey d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney  l4.d.real_pc_inc_ann l3.d.klarnerranney  l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work  l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_total l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified i.state_fips  if oldsouth==1, lag(8) force

{txt}Regression with Newey-West standard errors{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       576
{txt}maximum lag: {res}8{col 49}{txt}F( 32,       543){col 67}= {res}      7.97
{col 49}{txt}Prob > F{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 21}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 22}{c |}{col 34}  Newey-West
{col 1}   D.real_pc_inc_ann{col 22}{c |}      Coef.{col 34}   Std. Err.{col 46}      t{col 54}   P>|t|{col 62}     [95% Con{col 75}f. Interval]
{hline 21}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.0084547{col 34}{space 2} .0079197{col 45}{space 1}   -1.07{col 54}{space 3}0.286{col 62}{space 4}-.0240118{col 75}{space 3} .0071023
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 1.228321{col 34}{space 2} .9205907{col 45}{space 1}    1.33{col 54}{space 3}0.183{col 62}{space 4}-.5800342{col 75}{space 3} 3.036676
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} .1330819{col 34}{space 2} .0979423{col 45}{space 1}    1.36{col 54}{space 3}0.175{col 62}{space 4}-.0593103{col 75}{space 3} .3254741
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}D1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.1235573{col 34}{space 2} 1.221242{col 45}{space 1}   -0.10{col 54}{space 3}0.919{col 62}{space 4}-2.522495{col 75}{space 3}  2.27538
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 16}L2D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.0890407{col 34}{space 2} .0805255{col 45}{space 1}   -1.11{col 54}{space 3}0.269{col 62}{space 4}-.2472205{col 75}{space 3}  .069139
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-1.131703{col 34}{space 2} 1.773383{col 45}{space 1}   -0.64{col 54}{space 3}0.524{col 62}{space 4}-4.615234{col 75}{space 3} 2.351827
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 16}L3D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.1297452{col 34}{space 2} .0772285{col 45}{space 1}   -1.68{col 54}{space 3}0.094{col 62}{space 4}-.2814484{col 75}{space 3}  .021958
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 16}L2D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} -.902493{col 34}{space 2} 1.159382{col 45}{space 1}   -0.78{col 54}{space 3}0.437{col 62}{space 4}-3.179916{col 75}{space 3}  1.37493
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 16}L4D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.0060624{col 34}{space 2}  .042481{col 45}{space 1}   -0.14{col 54}{space 3}0.887{col 62}{space 4}-.0895096{col 75}{space 3} .0773847
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 16}L3D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 3.909166{col 34}{space 2} 1.738314{col 45}{space 1}    2.25{col 54}{space 3}0.025{col 62}{space 4} .4945212{col 75}{space 3} 7.323811
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
csi_perc_cap_outlays {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 562.8567{col 34}{space 2} 263.7708{col 45}{space 1}    2.13{col 54}{space 3}0.033{col 62}{space 4} 44.72062{col 75}{space 3} 1080.993
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-750.7922{col 34}{space 2} 335.8311{col 45}{space 1}   -2.24{col 54}{space 3}0.026{col 62}{space 4} -1410.48{col 75}{space 3}-91.10487
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}right_to_work {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-5.868374{col 34}{space 2} 40.94578{col 45}{space 1}   -0.14{col 54}{space 3}0.886{col 62}{space 4}-86.29991{col 75}{space 3} 74.56316
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 173.3931{col 34}{space 2} 74.52298{col 45}{space 1}    2.33{col 54}{space 3}0.020{col 62}{space 4} 27.00448{col 75}{space 3} 319.7818
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 1}csi_welf_perc_total {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 272.2998{col 34}{space 2} 229.4206{col 45}{space 1}    1.19{col 54}{space 3}0.236{col 62}{space 4}-178.3608{col 75}{space 3} 722.9603
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-1517.763{col 34}{space 2} 594.6561{col 45}{space 1}   -2.55{col 54}{space 3}0.011{col 62}{space 4}-2685.871{col 75}{space 3}-349.6548
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}nonfarm_persinc {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 1606.586{col 34}{space 2} 351.2325{col 45}{space 1}    4.57{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4} 916.6455{col 75}{space 3} 2296.527
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 2845.042{col 34}{space 2} 937.9135{col 45}{space 1}    3.03{col 54}{space 3}0.003{col 62}{space 4} 1002.659{col 75}{space 3} 4687.425
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 11}gov_party {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-165.2094{col 34}{space 2} 69.20744{col 45}{space 1}   -2.39{col 54}{space 3}0.017{col 62}{space 4}-301.1565{col 75}{space 3}-29.26227
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 162.1664{col 34}{space 2} 143.9601{col 45}{space 1}    1.13{col 54}{space 3}0.260{col 62}{space 4}-120.6205{col 75}{space 3} 444.9533
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 9}dem_unified {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 160.9297{col 34}{space 2} 73.20768{col 45}{space 1}    2.20{col 54}{space 3}0.028{col 62}{space 4} 17.12477{col 75}{space 3} 304.7347
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-119.4885{col 34}{space 2} 144.2975{col 45}{space 1}   -0.83{col 54}{space 3}0.408{col 62}{space 4}-402.9382{col 75}{space 3} 163.9611
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 9}rep_unified {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} -211.003{col 34}{space 2} 74.32547{col 45}{space 1}   -2.84{col 54}{space 3}0.005{col 62}{space 4}-357.0037{col 75}{space 3}-65.00231
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}  387.436{col 34}{space 2} 150.3778{col 45}{space 1}    2.58{col 54}{space 3}0.010{col 62}{space 4} 92.04244{col 75}{space 3} 682.8295
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 10}state_fips {c |}
{space 18}5  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 57.38445{col 34}{space 2} 37.49477{col 45}{space 1}    1.53{col 54}{space 3}0.126{col 62}{space 4}-16.26812{col 75}{space 3}  131.037
{txt}{space 17}21  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-84.53946{col 34}{space 2} 70.65673{col 45}{space 1}   -1.20{col 54}{space 3}0.232{col 62}{space 4}-223.3335{col 75}{space 3} 54.25455
{txt}{space 17}22  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-4.482545{col 34}{space 2} 47.83817{col 45}{space 1}   -0.09{col 54}{space 3}0.925{col 62}{space 4}-98.45309{col 75}{space 3}   89.488
{txt}{space 17}28  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 25.62965{col 34}{space 2} 38.85846{col 45}{space 1}    0.66{col 54}{space 3}0.510{col 62}{space 4}-50.70166{col 75}{space 3}  101.961
{txt}{space 17}40  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-40.48891{col 34}{space 2} 56.63615{col 45}{space 1}   -0.71{col 54}{space 3}0.475{col 62}{space 4}-151.7417{col 75}{space 3} 70.76388
{txt}{space 17}45  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-9.952737{col 34}{space 2} 41.53503{col 45}{space 1}   -0.24{col 54}{space 3}0.811{col 62}{space 4}-91.54177{col 75}{space 3} 71.63629
{txt}{space 17}47  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-75.12708{col 34}{space 2} 50.61305{col 45}{space 1}   -1.48{col 54}{space 3}0.138{col 62}{space 4}-174.5485{col 75}{space 3} 24.29428
{txt}{space 17}54  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-111.0247{col 34}{space 2} 65.62465{col 45}{space 1}   -1.69{col 54}{space 3}0.091{col 62}{space 4} -239.934{col 75}{space 3} 17.88455
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 15}_cons {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} -1405.45{col 34}{space 2} 306.7304{col 45}{space 1}   -4.58{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4}-2007.974{col 75}{space 3} -802.927
{txt}{hline 21}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. predict real_pc_inc_annhatallfullos if oldsouth==1
{txt}(option xb assumed; fitted values)
(2,763 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
. * TESTING INCOME ERROR CORRECTION RATE *
. 
. test l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  1,   543) ={res}    1.14
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.2862
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * TESTING INCOME FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY)*
. 
. test l.real_pc_inc_ann = l.klarnerranney = 0

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.real_pc_inc_ann - L.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}
{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 2)}{space 1} L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  2,   543) ={res}    1.10
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.3348
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. * ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *
. 
. lincom  d.klarnerranney +  l.d.klarnerranney +  l2.d.klarnerranney +  l3.d.klarnerranney 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}D.klarnerranney + LD.klarnerranney + L2D.klarnerranney + L3D.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}real_pc_in~n{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}(1) {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.751412{col 26}{space 2} 3.523236{col 37}{space 1}    0.50{col 46}{space 3}0.619{col 54}{space 4} -5.16943{col 67}{space 3} 8.672254
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *
. 
. nlcom _b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] 

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}_b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}real_pc_in~n{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 145.2825{col 26}{space 2} 141.5474{col 37}{space 1}    1.03{col 46}{space 3}0.305{col 54}{space 4}-132.1452{col 67}{space 3} 422.7103
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. *
. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. 
. qui regress d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips  if oldsouth==1
{txt}
{com}. 
. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 63}
       Model {c |}        Obs  ll(null)  ll(model)      df         AIC        BIC
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 63}
{ralign 12:.}{col 14}{c |}{res}{col 16}       585{col 27}-197.0481{col 38}-168.5562{col 49}    25{col 58} 387.1125{col 69} 496.4028
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 63}
{p 15 21 2}
Note: N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see {helpb bic_note:[R] BIC note}.
{p_end}

{com}. 
. 
. ****** PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********
. 
. 
. newey d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips  if oldsouth==1, lag(8) force

{txt}Regression with Newey-West standard errors{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       585
{txt}maximum lag: {res}8{col 49}{txt}F( 24,       560){col 67}= {res}      3.62
{col 49}{txt}Prob > F{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 17}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.              {col 18}{c |}{col 30}  Newey-West
{col 1}ihsklarnerranney{col 18}{c |}      Coef.{col 30}   Std. Err.{col 42}      t{col 50}   P>|t|{col 58}     [95% Con{col 71}f. Interval]
{hline 17}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
ihsklarnerranney {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0592819{col 30}{space 2} .0221035{col 41}{space 1}   -2.68{col 50}{space 3}0.008{col 58}{space 4}-.1026979{col 71}{space 3} -.015866
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 1}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0000232{col 30}{space 2} 6.48e-06{col 41}{space 1}    3.58{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4} .0000105{col 71}{space 3}  .000036
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
ihsklarnerranney {c |}
{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0387242{col 30}{space 2} .0629727{col 41}{space 1}   -0.61{col 50}{space 3}0.539{col 58}{space 4}-.1624157{col 71}{space 3} .0849674
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 1}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 13}D1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0000433{col 30}{space 2} .0000342{col 41}{space 1}    1.27{col 50}{space 3}0.206{col 58}{space 4}-.0000238{col 71}{space 3} .0001104
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
ihsklarnerranney {c |}
{space 12}L2D. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.1839906{col 30}{space 2} .0704559{col 41}{space 1}   -2.61{col 50}{space 3}0.009{col 58}{space 4}-.3223807{col 71}{space 3}-.0456004
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 1}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0001019{col 30}{space 2} .0000534{col 41}{space 1}    1.91{col 50}{space 3}0.057{col 58}{space 4}-3.11e-06{col 71}{space 3} .0002068
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
ihsklarnerranney {c |}
{space 12}L3D. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0055645{col 30}{space 2} .0277006{col 41}{space 1}   -0.20{col 50}{space 3}0.841{col 58}{space 4}-.0599743{col 71}{space 3} .0488454
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 1}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 12}L2D. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} 2.85e-06{col 30}{space 2}  .000054{col 41}{space 1}    0.05{col 50}{space 3}0.958{col 58}{space 4}-.0001032{col 71}{space 3} .0001089
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 7}gov_party {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} -.076546{col 30}{space 2} .0358059{col 41}{space 1}   -2.14{col 50}{space 3}0.033{col 58}{space 4}-.1468763{col 71}{space 3}-.0062158
{txt}{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0041031{col 30}{space 2} .0289246{col 41}{space 1}   -0.14{col 50}{space 3}0.887{col 58}{space 4}-.0609172{col 71}{space 3} .0527109
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 5}dem_unified {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}  .112463{col 30}{space 2} .0342898{col 41}{space 1}    3.28{col 50}{space 3}0.001{col 58}{space 4} .0451107{col 71}{space 3} .1798154
{txt}{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0244665{col 30}{space 2} .0268646{col 41}{space 1}   -0.91{col 50}{space 3}0.363{col 58}{space 4}-.0772342{col 71}{space 3} .0283012
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 5}rep_unified {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0912754{col 30}{space 2} .0494219{col 41}{space 1}   -1.85{col 50}{space 3}0.065{col 58}{space 4}-.1883504{col 71}{space 3} .0057996
{txt}{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0155711{col 30}{space 2} .0334538{col 41}{space 1}   -0.47{col 50}{space 3}0.642{col 58}{space 4}-.0812813{col 71}{space 3} .0501391
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 2}electedjudges1 {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0962136{col 30}{space 2} .0385871{col 41}{space 1}    2.49{col 50}{space 3}0.013{col 58}{space 4} .0204204{col 71}{space 3} .1720068
{txt}{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0302166{col 30}{space 2} .0261778{col 41}{space 1}   -1.15{col 50}{space 3}0.249{col 58}{space 4}-.0816353{col 71}{space 3} .0212021
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 6}state_fips {c |}
{space 14}5  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0023191{col 30}{space 2} .0669877{col 41}{space 1}    0.03{col 50}{space 3}0.972{col 58}{space 4}-.1292588{col 71}{space 3}  .133897
{txt}{space 13}21  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0630807{col 30}{space 2} .0739216{col 41}{space 1}    0.85{col 50}{space 3}0.394{col 58}{space 4}-.0821167{col 71}{space 3} .2082781
{txt}{space 13}22  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0020722{col 30}{space 2} .0674713{col 41}{space 1}    0.03{col 50}{space 3}0.976{col 58}{space 4}-.1304556{col 71}{space 3}    .1346
{txt}{space 13}28  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0419227{col 30}{space 2} .0676629{col 41}{space 1}    0.62{col 50}{space 3}0.536{col 58}{space 4}-.0909815{col 71}{space 3} .1748269
{txt}{space 13}40  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0717553{col 30}{space 2} .0724306{col 41}{space 1}    0.99{col 50}{space 3}0.322{col 58}{space 4}-.0705136{col 71}{space 3} .2140242
{txt}{space 13}45  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .1572889{col 30}{space 2} .0989314{col 41}{space 1}    1.59{col 50}{space 3}0.112{col 58}{space 4} -.037033{col 71}{space 3} .3516107
{txt}{space 13}47  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0914481{col 30}{space 2} .0775668{col 41}{space 1}    1.18{col 50}{space 3}0.239{col 58}{space 4}-.0609092{col 71}{space 3} .2438055
{txt}{space 13}54  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0427297{col 30}{space 2} .0713712{col 41}{space 1}    0.60{col 50}{space 3}0.550{col 58}{space 4}-.0974583{col 71}{space 3} .1829178
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 11}_cons {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} -.130131{col 30}{space 2} .0837193{col 41}{space 1}   -1.55{col 50}{space 3}0.121{col 58}{space 4}-.2945732{col 71}{space 3} .0343113
{txt}{hline 17}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. predict ihsklarnerranneyhatallfullos if oldsouth==1
{txt}(option xb assumed; fitted values)
(2,754 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *
. 
. test l.ihsklarnerranney = 0 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.ihsklarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  1,   560) ={res}    7.19
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0075
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY)*
. 
. test l.ihsklarnerranney = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.ihsklarnerranney - L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}
{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 2)}{space 1} L.ihsklarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  2,   560) ={res}    6.51
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0016
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. * ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *
. 
. lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}D.real_pc_inc_ann + LD.real_pc_inc_ann + L2D.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}ihsklarner~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}(1) {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .000148{col 26}{space 2} .0000884{col 37}{space 1}    1.67{col 46}{space 3}0.095{col 54}{space 4}-.0000256{col 67}{space 3} .0003216
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *
. 
. nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.ihsklarnerranney]

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.ihsklarnerranney]

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}ihsklarner~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0003919{col 26}{space 2} .0000849{col 37}{space 1}    4.62{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0002255{col 67}{space 3} .0005582
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. *
. 
. 
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. 
. 
. 
. 
. // (4,3)  MODEL
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *** IV.B: OLD SOUTH STATES (N = 9): PRE-PARTISAN ALIGNMENT TIME PERIOD (1942 - 1980) ***
. 
. 
. qui reg d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work  l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_total l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified  i.state_fips  if year <=1980 & oldsouth==1
{txt}
{com}. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 63}
       Model {c |}        Obs  ll(null)  ll(model)      df         AIC        BIC
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 63}
{ralign 12:.}{col 14}{c |}{res}{col 16}       315{col 27}-2180.656{col 38}-2084.397{col 49}    29{col 58} 4226.793{col 69} 4335.618
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 63}
{p 15 21 2}
Note: N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see {helpb bic_note:[R] BIC note}.
{p_end}

{com}. 
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. 
. ******INCOME EQUATION*********
. 
. newey d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work  l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_total l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified  i.state_fips  if year <=1980 & oldsouth==1, lag(6) force
{txt}note: L.rep_unified omitted because of collinearity
note: LD.rep_unified omitted because of collinearity

Regression with Newey-West standard errors{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       315
{txt}maximum lag: {res}6{col 49}{txt}F( 28,       286){col 67}= {res}     22.60
{col 49}{txt}Prob > F{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 21}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 22}{c |}{col 34}  Newey-West
{col 1}   D.real_pc_inc_ann{col 22}{c |}      Coef.{col 34}   Std. Err.{col 46}      t{col 54}   P>|t|{col 62}     [95% Con{col 75}f. Interval]
{hline 21}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.0083811{col 34}{space 2} .0112194{col 45}{space 1}   -0.75{col 54}{space 3}0.456{col 62}{space 4}-.0304642{col 75}{space 3} .0137019
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}  2.28179{col 34}{space 2} 1.199298{col 45}{space 1}    1.90{col 54}{space 3}0.058{col 62}{space 4}  -.07878{col 75}{space 3} 4.642361
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} .1973252{col 34}{space 2} .0693183{col 45}{space 1}    2.85{col 54}{space 3}0.005{col 62}{space 4} .0608865{col 75}{space 3} .3337639
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}D1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.3047731{col 34}{space 2} 1.574468{col 45}{space 1}   -0.19{col 54}{space 3}0.847{col 62}{space 4}-3.403789{col 75}{space 3} 2.794242
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 16}L2D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.3758057{col 34}{space 2} .0515327{col 45}{space 1}   -7.29{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4}-.4772372{col 75}{space 3}-.2743742
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.7704427{col 34}{space 2} 1.883613{col 45}{space 1}   -0.41{col 54}{space 3}0.683{col 62}{space 4}-4.477946{col 75}{space 3}  2.93706
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 16}L3D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.1176889{col 34}{space 2} .0455601{col 45}{space 1}   -2.58{col 54}{space 3}0.010{col 62}{space 4}-.2073646{col 75}{space 3}-.0280132
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 16}L2D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-1.673644{col 34}{space 2} 1.363484{col 45}{space 1}   -1.23{col 54}{space 3}0.221{col 62}{space 4} -4.35738{col 75}{space 3} 1.010091
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
csi_perc_cap_outlays {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 1367.431{col 34}{space 2} 299.0124{col 45}{space 1}    4.57{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4} 778.8869{col 75}{space 3} 1955.975
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-1427.916{col 34}{space 2} 381.7583{col 45}{space 1}   -3.74{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4}-2179.328{col 75}{space 3}-676.5034
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}right_to_work {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-68.32414{col 34}{space 2} 44.64004{col 45}{space 1}   -1.53{col 54}{space 3}0.127{col 62}{space 4}-156.1888{col 75}{space 3} 19.54054
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 179.9652{col 34}{space 2}  87.9864{col 45}{space 1}    2.05{col 54}{space 3}0.042{col 62}{space 4}  6.78213{col 75}{space 3} 353.1482
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 1}csi_welf_perc_total {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-600.1473{col 34}{space 2} 446.6429{col 45}{space 1}   -1.34{col 54}{space 3}0.180{col 62}{space 4}-1479.272{col 75}{space 3} 278.9769
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-869.7346{col 34}{space 2} 695.3098{col 45}{space 1}   -1.25{col 54}{space 3}0.212{col 62}{space 4}-2238.308{col 75}{space 3}  498.839
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}nonfarm_persinc {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}  2201.79{col 34}{space 2}  420.138{col 45}{space 1}    5.24{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4} 1374.835{col 75}{space 3} 3028.745
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 2671.043{col 34}{space 2} 686.3532{col 45}{space 1}    3.89{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4} 1320.098{col 75}{space 3} 4021.987
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 11}gov_party {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 117.9193{col 34}{space 2} 63.40795{col 45}{space 1}    1.86{col 54}{space 3}0.064{col 62}{space 4}-6.886167{col 75}{space 3} 242.7247
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-219.1982{col 34}{space 2} 52.45985{col 45}{space 1}   -4.18{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4}-322.4546{col 75}{space 3}-115.9418
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 9}dem_unified {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-121.6842{col 34}{space 2}  70.0847{col 45}{space 1}   -1.74{col 54}{space 3}0.084{col 62}{space 4}-259.6315{col 75}{space 3}   16.263
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 248.3625{col 34}{space 2} 62.39648{col 45}{space 1}    3.98{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4}  125.548{col 75}{space 3} 371.1771
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 9}rep_unified {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}        0{col 34}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}        0{col 34}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 20} {c |}
{space 10}state_fips {c |}
{space 18}5  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 140.6976{col 34}{space 2}  67.3493{col 45}{space 1}    2.09{col 54}{space 3}0.038{col 62}{space 4} 8.134442{col 75}{space 3} 273.2608
{txt}{space 17}21  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-279.4221{col 34}{space 2} 105.5377{col 45}{space 1}   -2.65{col 54}{space 3}0.009{col 62}{space 4}-487.1512{col 75}{space 3}-71.69301
{txt}{space 17}22  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-53.65495{col 34}{space 2}  72.0637{col 45}{space 1}   -0.74{col 54}{space 3}0.457{col 62}{space 4}-195.4974{col 75}{space 3} 88.18755
{txt}{space 17}28  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 82.03004{col 34}{space 2} 58.44897{col 45}{space 1}    1.40{col 54}{space 3}0.162{col 62}{space 4}-33.01468{col 75}{space 3} 197.0748
{txt}{space 17}40  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-17.45929{col 34}{space 2}  95.4811{col 45}{space 1}   -0.18{col 54}{space 3}0.855{col 62}{space 4}-205.3941{col 75}{space 3} 170.4755
{txt}{space 17}45  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-90.09167{col 34}{space 2} 62.36253{col 45}{space 1}   -1.44{col 54}{space 3}0.150{col 62}{space 4}-212.8394{col 75}{space 3} 32.65607
{txt}{space 17}47  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-211.6428{col 34}{space 2} 76.21944{col 45}{space 1}   -2.78{col 54}{space 3}0.006{col 62}{space 4} -361.665{col 75}{space 3}-61.62061
{txt}{space 17}54  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-331.9903{col 34}{space 2} 104.2563{col 45}{space 1}   -3.18{col 54}{space 3}0.002{col 62}{space 4}-537.1973{col 75}{space 3}-126.7834
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 15}_cons {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-1883.691{col 34}{space 2} 336.3642{col 45}{space 1}   -5.60{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4}-2545.754{col 75}{space 3}-1221.627
{txt}{hline 21}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. predict real_pc_inc_annhatallpre if year<=1980 & oldsouth==1
{txt}(option xb assumed; fitted values)
(3,024 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
. 
. 
. * TESTING INCOME ERROR CORRECTION RATE *
. 
. test l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  1,   286) ={res}    0.56
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.4557
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * TESTING INCOME FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY)*
. 
. test l.real_pc_inc_ann = l.klarnerranney = 0

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.real_pc_inc_ann - L.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}
{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 2)}{space 1} L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  2,   286) ={res}    1.89
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.1529
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *
. 
. lincom d.klarnerranney +  l.d.klarnerranney +  l2.d.klarnerranney 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}D.klarnerranney + LD.klarnerranney + L2D.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}real_pc_in~n{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}(1) {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -2.74886{col 26}{space 2} 2.720635{col 37}{space 1}   -1.01{col 46}{space 3}0.313{col 54}{space 4}-8.103868{col 67}{space 3} 2.606147
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *
. 
. nlcom _b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] 

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}_b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}real_pc_in~n{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 272.2528{col 26}{space 2} 365.9646{col 37}{space 1}    0.74{col 46}{space 3}0.457{col 54}{space 4}-445.0247{col 67}{space 3} 989.5303
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. sum klarnerranney   if real_pc_inc_annhatallpre!=. & year<=1980 & oldsouth==1, detail

         {txt}Annual Ranney Measure of State Legislative
               Partisan Balance (Klarner Data)
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res}        0              0
{txt} 5%    {res}        0              0
{txt}10%    {res}        0              0       {txt}Obs         {res}        315
{txt}25%    {res} .9433962              0       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}        315

{txt}50%    {res} 8.571429                      {txt}Mean          {res} 23.94992
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res}  26.1022
{txt}75%    {res} 44.05263       86.86869
{txt}90%    {res} 65.65657       89.89899       {txt}Variance      {res} 681.3247
{txt}95%    {res} 75.75758       90.90909       {txt}Skewness      {res} .7897964
{txt}99%    {res} 86.86869       90.90909       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 2.376814
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS  OF  klarnerranney ON real_pc_inc_ann:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF klarnerranney MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF klarnerranney FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD *
. 
. 
. nlcom  (_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*44.05263  -  (_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*0.9433962

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}(_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*44.05263 - (_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*0.9433962

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}real_pc_in~n{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 11736.61{col 26}{space 2} 15776.46{col 37}{space 1}    0.74{col 46}{space 3}0.457{col 54}{space 4}-19184.68{col 67}{space 3} 42657.89
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. 
. qui regress d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips  if year <=1980 & oldsouth==1
{txt}
{com}. 
. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 63}
       Model {c |}        Obs  ll(null)  ll(model)      df         AIC        BIC
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 63}
{ralign 12:.}{col 14}{c |}{res}{col 16}       315{col 27}-184.4023{col 38}-160.5292{col 49}    23{col 58} 367.0584{col 69} 453.3676
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 63}
{p 15 21 2}
Note: N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see {helpb bic_note:[R] BIC note}.
{p_end}

{com}. 
. *
. 
. ******PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********
. 
. 
. newey d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips  if year <=1980 & oldsouth==1, lag(6) force
{txt}note: L.rep_unified omitted because of collinearity
note: LD.rep_unified omitted because of collinearity

Regression with Newey-West standard errors{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       315
{txt}maximum lag: {res}6{col 49}{txt}F( 22,       292){col 67}= {res}      3.01
{col 49}{txt}Prob > F{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 17}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.              {col 18}{c |}{col 30}  Newey-West
{col 1}ihsklarnerranney{col 18}{c |}      Coef.{col 30}   Std. Err.{col 42}      t{col 50}   P>|t|{col 58}     [95% Con{col 71}f. Interval]
{hline 17}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
ihsklarnerranney {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.1404416{col 30}{space 2} .0489838{col 41}{space 1}   -2.87{col 50}{space 3}0.004{col 58}{space 4}-.2368476{col 71}{space 3}-.0440355
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 1}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0000404{col 30}{space 2} .0000169{col 41}{space 1}    2.40{col 50}{space 3}0.017{col 58}{space 4} 7.21e-06{col 71}{space 3} .0000736
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
ihsklarnerranney {c |}
{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0169073{col 30}{space 2} .0768095{col 41}{space 1}    0.22{col 50}{space 3}0.826{col 58}{space 4}-.1342631{col 71}{space 3} .1680778
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 1}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 13}D1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0000492{col 30}{space 2} .0000735{col 41}{space 1}    0.67{col 50}{space 3}0.503{col 58}{space 4}-.0000954{col 71}{space 3} .0001938
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
ihsklarnerranney {c |}
{space 12}L2D. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} -.187946{col 30}{space 2} .0753604{col 41}{space 1}   -2.49{col 50}{space 3}0.013{col 58}{space 4}-.3362644{col 71}{space 3}-.0396277
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 1}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0002257{col 30}{space 2} .0001356{col 41}{space 1}    1.66{col 50}{space 3}0.097{col 58}{space 4}-.0000413{col 71}{space 3} .0004926
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
ihsklarnerranney {c |}
{space 12}L3D. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0321332{col 30}{space 2} .0413497{col 41}{space 1}    0.78{col 50}{space 3}0.438{col 58}{space 4} -.049248{col 71}{space 3} .1135145
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 1}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 12}L2D. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}  .000034{col 30}{space 2} .0001125{col 41}{space 1}    0.30{col 50}{space 3}0.763{col 58}{space 4}-.0001874{col 71}{space 3} .0002553
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 7}gov_party {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0261654{col 30}{space 2} .0877695{col 41}{space 1}    0.30{col 50}{space 3}0.766{col 58}{space 4}-.1465756{col 71}{space 3} .1989064
{txt}{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0171416{col 30}{space 2} .0697454{col 41}{space 1}   -0.25{col 50}{space 3}0.806{col 58}{space 4}-.1544091{col 71}{space 3} .1201258
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 5}dem_unified {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0308982{col 30}{space 2} .0536609{col 41}{space 1}    0.58{col 50}{space 3}0.565{col 58}{space 4} -.074713{col 71}{space 3} .1365095
{txt}{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0292103{col 30}{space 2} .0511821{col 41}{space 1}   -0.57{col 50}{space 3}0.569{col 58}{space 4}-.1299428{col 71}{space 3} .0715223
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 5}rep_unified {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}        0{col 30}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}        0{col 30}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 16} {c |}
{space 2}electedjudges1 {c |}
{space 13}L1. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0919653{col 30}{space 2} .0929758{col 41}{space 1}    0.99{col 50}{space 3}0.323{col 58}{space 4}-.0910224{col 71}{space 3}  .274953
{txt}{space 13}LD. {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}  .003508{col 30}{space 2} .0792963{col 41}{space 1}    0.04{col 50}{space 3}0.965{col 58}{space 4}-.1525567{col 71}{space 3} .1595728
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 6}state_fips {c |}
{space 14}5  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0878573{col 30}{space 2} .1042955{col 41}{space 1}    0.84{col 50}{space 3}0.400{col 58}{space 4}-.1174089{col 71}{space 3} .2931235
{txt}{space 13}21  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .4530118{col 30}{space 2} .1954258{col 41}{space 1}    2.32{col 50}{space 3}0.021{col 58}{space 4}   .06839{col 71}{space 3} .8376336
{txt}{space 13}22  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0122198{col 30}{space 2} .1031684{col 41}{space 1}    0.12{col 50}{space 3}0.906{col 58}{space 4}-.1908282{col 71}{space 3} .2152677
{txt}{space 13}28  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0909937{col 30}{space 2} .1047214{col 41}{space 1}    0.87{col 50}{space 3}0.386{col 58}{space 4}-.1151107{col 71}{space 3}  .297098
{txt}{space 13}40  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .3702195{col 30}{space 2} .1605803{col 41}{space 1}    2.31{col 50}{space 3}0.022{col 58}{space 4} .0541779{col 71}{space 3} .6862611
{txt}{space 13}45  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .2232879{col 30}{space 2} .1568027{col 41}{space 1}    1.42{col 50}{space 3}0.156{col 58}{space 4}-.0853188{col 71}{space 3} .5318945
{txt}{space 13}47  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .4749617{col 30}{space 2} .1811317{col 41}{space 1}    2.62{col 50}{space 3}0.009{col 58}{space 4} .1184724{col 71}{space 3} .8314509
{txt}{space 13}54  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .4584986{col 30}{space 2} .1916532{col 41}{space 1}    2.39{col 50}{space 3}0.017{col 58}{space 4} .0813018{col 71}{space 3} .8356953
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 11}_cons {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.2615994{col 30}{space 2} .1346982{col 41}{space 1}   -1.94{col 50}{space 3}0.053{col 58}{space 4}-.5267017{col 71}{space 3} .0035029
{txt}{hline 17}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. predict ihsklarnerranneyhatallpre if year<=1980 & oldsouth==1
{txt}(option xb assumed; fitted values)
(3,024 missing values generated)

{com}. 
.  
. 
. * TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *
. 
. test l.ihsklarnerranney = 0

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.ihsklarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  1,   292) ={res}    8.22
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0044
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY)*
. 
. test l.ihsklarnerranney = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.ihsklarnerranney - L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}
{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 2)}{space 1} L.ihsklarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  2,   292) ={res}    4.23
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0154
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. * ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *
. 
. lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann + 0

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}D.real_pc_inc_ann + LD.real_pc_inc_ann + L2D.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}ihsklarner~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}(1) {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0003088{col 26}{space 2} .0001749{col 37}{space 1}    1.77{col 46}{space 3}0.078{col 54}{space 4}-.0000354{col 67}{space 3} .0006531
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *
. 
. nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.ihsklarnerranney]

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.ihsklarnerranney]

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}ihsklarner~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0002879{col 26}{space 2} .0000855{col 37}{space 1}    3.37{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4} .0001203{col 67}{space 3} .0004555
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. sum real_pc_inc_ann    if ihsklarnerranneyhatallpre!=. & year<=1980 & oldsouth==1, detail

        {txt}Per Capita Annual Income (1982-1984 Constant
                          Dollars)
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res} 3175.111       2933.336
{txt} 5%    {res} 3624.476       2952.088
{txt}10%    {res} 3950.903       3099.246       {txt}Obs         {res}        315
{txt}25%    {res} 4643.055       3175.111       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}        315

{txt}50%    {res}  5946.47                      {txt}Mean          {res} 6508.801
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res} 2170.654
{txt}75%    {res} 8432.818       10840.21
{txt}90%    {res} 9649.645       11256.66       {txt}Variance      {res}  4711739
{txt}95%    {res} 10159.67       11511.87       {txt}Skewness      {res} .3671428
{txt}99%    {res} 10840.21       11566.87       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 1.916253
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF  real_pc_inc_ann ON ihsklarnerranney:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD 
. 
. 
. nlcom  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.ihsklarnerranney])*8432.818   -  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.ihsklarnerranney])*4643.055

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}(_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.ihsklarnerranney])*8432.818 - (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.ihsklarnerranney])*4643.055

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}ihsklarner~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  1.09093{col 26}{space 2} .3240542{col 37}{space 1}    3.37{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4} .4557958{col 67}{space 3} 1.726065
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. 
. 
. 
. 
. // (5,4)  MODEL
. 
. 
. 
. *** IV.C: OLD SOUTH STATES (N = 9): POST-PARTISAN ALIGNMENT TIME PERIOD (1981 - 2010) ***
. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. 
. qui reg d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney  l4.d.real_pc_inc_ann l3.d.klarnerranney  l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work  l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_total l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified  i.state_fips  if year >1980 & oldsouth==1
{txt}
{com}. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 63}
       Model {c |}        Obs  ll(null)  ll(model)      df         AIC        BIC
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 63}
{ralign 12:.}{col 14}{c |}{res}{col 16}       270{col 27}-1889.087{col 38}-1852.573{col 49}    31{col 58} 3767.146{col 69} 3878.697
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 63}
{p 15 21 2}
Note: N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see {helpb bic_note:[R] BIC note}.
{p_end}

{com}. 
. 
. ******INCOME EQUATION*********
. 
. newey d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.klarnerranney   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.klarnerranney  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.klarnerranney  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.klarnerranney  l4.d.real_pc_inc_ann l3.d.klarnerranney  l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work  l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_total l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified  i.state_fips  if year >1980 & oldsouth==1, lag(5) force
{txt}note: LD.right_to_work omitted because of collinearity
note: 54.state_fips omitted because of collinearity

Regression with Newey-West standard errors{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       270
{txt}maximum lag: {res}5{col 49}{txt}F( 30,       239){col 67}= {res}      6.25
{col 49}{txt}Prob > F{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 21}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 22}{c |}{col 34}  Newey-West
{col 1}   D.real_pc_inc_ann{col 22}{c |}      Coef.{col 34}   Std. Err.{col 46}      t{col 54}   P>|t|{col 62}     [95% Con{col 75}f. Interval]
{hline 21}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.1215049{col 34}{space 2} .0300736{col 45}{space 1}   -4.04{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4}-.1807481{col 75}{space 3}-.0622617
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 5.997006{col 34}{space 2} 2.069005{col 45}{space 1}    2.90{col 54}{space 3}0.004{col 62}{space 4} 1.921192{col 75}{space 3} 10.07282
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} .0834798{col 34}{space 2}  .107204{col 45}{space 1}    0.78{col 54}{space 3}0.437{col 62}{space 4}-.1277056{col 75}{space 3} .2946651
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}D1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 1.006665{col 34}{space 2} 2.466555{col 45}{space 1}    0.41{col 54}{space 3}0.684{col 62}{space 4}-3.852298{col 75}{space 3} 5.865628
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 16}L2D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} .1498083{col 34}{space 2} .1159825{col 45}{space 1}    1.29{col 54}{space 3}0.198{col 62}{space 4}-.0786701{col 75}{space 3} .3782868
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-6.611335{col 34}{space 2} 2.557813{col 45}{space 1}   -2.58{col 54}{space 3}0.010{col 62}{space 4}-11.65007{col 75}{space 3}-1.572598
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 16}L3D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.1197248{col 34}{space 2} .1237755{col 45}{space 1}   -0.97{col 54}{space 3}0.334{col 62}{space 4}-.3635551{col 75}{space 3} .1241055
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 16}L2D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} -4.20394{col 34}{space 2} 2.012786{col 45}{space 1}   -2.09{col 54}{space 3}0.038{col 62}{space 4}-8.169007{col 75}{space 3}-.2388729
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 16}L4D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} .1259973{col 34}{space 2} .0745057{col 45}{space 1}    1.69{col 54}{space 3}0.092{col 62}{space 4}-.0207743{col 75}{space 3}  .272769
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 16}L3D. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 5.425428{col 34}{space 2} 2.962383{col 45}{space 1}    1.83{col 54}{space 3}0.068{col 62}{space 4} -.410287{col 75}{space 3} 11.26114
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
csi_perc_cap_outlays {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-2547.643{col 34}{space 2} 942.4119{col 45}{space 1}   -2.70{col 54}{space 3}0.007{col 62}{space 4}-4404.137{col 75}{space 3}-691.1484
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 2796.559{col 34}{space 2} 1445.081{col 45}{space 1}    1.94{col 54}{space 3}0.054{col 62}{space 4}-50.16397{col 75}{space 3} 5643.282
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 7}right_to_work {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 208.4915{col 34}{space 2} 77.27717{col 45}{space 1}    2.70{col 54}{space 3}0.007{col 62}{space 4} 56.26016{col 75}{space 3} 360.7229
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}        0{col 34}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 20} {c |}
{space 1}csi_welf_perc_total {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 1420.347{col 34}{space 2}  611.523{col 45}{space 1}    2.32{col 54}{space 3}0.021{col 62}{space 4} 215.6839{col 75}{space 3}  2625.01
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-2514.473{col 34}{space 2} 930.7679{col 45}{space 1}   -2.70{col 54}{space 3}0.007{col 62}{space 4} -4348.03{col 75}{space 3} -680.917
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 5}nonfarm_persinc {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}  9354.22{col 34}{space 2} 4605.222{col 45}{space 1}    2.03{col 54}{space 3}0.043{col 62}{space 4} 282.2111{col 75}{space 3} 18426.23
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 3081.354{col 34}{space 2} 3511.025{col 45}{space 1}    0.88{col 54}{space 3}0.381{col 62}{space 4}-3835.153{col 75}{space 3} 9997.862
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 11}gov_party {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-247.6679{col 34}{space 2} 84.99037{col 45}{space 1}   -2.91{col 54}{space 3}0.004{col 62}{space 4}-415.0938{col 75}{space 3}-80.24203
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 250.7357{col 34}{space 2} 151.0769{col 45}{space 1}    1.66{col 54}{space 3}0.098{col 62}{space 4}-46.87664{col 75}{space 3}  548.348
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 9}dem_unified {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 267.0196{col 34}{space 2} 84.49841{col 45}{space 1}    3.16{col 54}{space 3}0.002{col 62}{space 4} 100.5629{col 75}{space 3} 433.4764
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-229.6649{col 34}{space 2} 149.0003{col 45}{space 1}   -1.54{col 54}{space 3}0.125{col 62}{space 4}-523.1864{col 75}{space 3} 63.85659
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 9}rep_unified {c |}
{space 17}L1. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-85.06154{col 34}{space 2} 112.2011{col 45}{space 1}   -0.76{col 54}{space 3}0.449{col 62}{space 4}-306.0908{col 75}{space 3} 135.9678
{txt}{space 17}LD. {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}  372.077{col 34}{space 2} 175.2267{col 45}{space 1}    2.12{col 54}{space 3}0.035{col 62}{space 4} 26.89109{col 75}{space 3}  717.263
{txt}{space 20} {c |}
{space 10}state_fips {c |}
{space 18}5  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 150.7629{col 34}{space 2} 103.4546{col 45}{space 1}    1.46{col 54}{space 3}0.146{col 62}{space 4}-53.03646{col 75}{space 3} 354.5623
{txt}{space 17}21  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 98.49705{col 34}{space 2} 101.5079{col 45}{space 1}    0.97{col 54}{space 3}0.333{col 62}{space 4}-101.4673{col 75}{space 3} 298.4614
{txt}{space 17}22  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 14.78643{col 34}{space 2} 81.49283{col 45}{space 1}    0.18{col 54}{space 3}0.856{col 62}{space 4}-145.7495{col 75}{space 3} 175.3224
{txt}{space 17}28  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-164.6666{col 34}{space 2} 72.46487{col 45}{space 1}   -2.27{col 54}{space 3}0.024{col 62}{space 4} -307.418{col 75}{space 3}-21.91518
{txt}{space 17}40  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-75.63039{col 34}{space 2} 86.30534{col 45}{space 1}   -0.88{col 54}{space 3}0.382{col 62}{space 4}-245.6467{col 75}{space 3}  94.3859
{txt}{space 17}45  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} -129.999{col 34}{space 2} 81.71551{col 45}{space 1}   -1.59{col 54}{space 3}0.113{col 62}{space 4}-290.9736{col 75}{space 3}  30.9756
{txt}{space 17}47  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-218.5555{col 34}{space 2} 91.97926{col 45}{space 1}   -2.38{col 54}{space 3}0.018{col 62}{space 4}-399.7491{col 75}{space 3}-37.36193
{txt}{space 17}54  {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}        0{col 34}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 20} {c |}
{space 15}_cons {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-8081.952{col 34}{space 2} 4572.636{col 45}{space 1}   -1.77{col 54}{space 3}0.078{col 62}{space 4}-17089.77{col 75}{space 3} 925.8632
{txt}{hline 21}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. predict real_pc_inc_annhatallpost if year>1980 & oldsouth==1
{txt}(option xb assumed; fitted values)
(3,069 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TESTING INCOME ERROR CORRECTION RATE *
. 
. test l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  1,   239) ={res}   16.32
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0001
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * TESTING INCOME FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENIETY)*
. 
. test l.real_pc_inc_ann = l.klarnerranney = 0

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.real_pc_inc_ann - L.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}
{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 2)}{space 1} L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  2,   239) ={res}    8.52
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0003
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. * ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *
. 
. lincom  d.klarnerranney +  l.d.klarnerranney +  l2.d.klarnerranney +  l3.d.klarnerranney 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}D.klarnerranney + LD.klarnerranney + L2D.klarnerranney + L3D.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}real_pc_in~n{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}(1) {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-4.383181{col 26}{space 2} 5.755975{col 37}{space 1}   -0.76{col 46}{space 3}0.447{col 54}{space 4} -15.7221{col 67}{space 3}  6.95574
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. * TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *
. 
. nlcom _b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] 

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}_b[l.klarnerranney]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}real_pc_in~n{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 49.35609{col 26}{space 2} 14.61261{col 37}{space 1}    3.38{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4}  20.7159{col 67}{space 3} 77.99629
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. sum klarnerranney   if real_pc_inc_annhatallpost!=. & year > 1980 & oldsouth==1, detail

         {txt}Annual Ranney Measure of State Legislative
               Partisan Balance (Klarner Data)
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res}  9.52381       4.761905
{txt} 5%    {res} 13.99267       4.761905
{txt}10%    {res} 21.62605        9.52381       {txt}Obs         {res}        270
{txt}25%    {res} 39.04762        9.52381       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}        270

{txt}50%    {res} 61.51174                      {txt}Mean          {res} 58.58739
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res} 25.29815
{txt}75%    {res} 81.81818       98.14165
{txt}90%    {res} 90.90909       98.52632       {txt}Variance      {res} 639.9964
{txt}95%    {res} 96.89474        98.9899       {txt}Skewness      {res}-.2543468
{txt}99%    {res} 98.52632       99.26367       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 2.040101
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. * TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS  OF  klarnerranney ON real_pc_inc_ann:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF klarnerranney MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF klarnerranney FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD *
. 
. 
. nlcom  (_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*81.81818  -  (_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*39.04762

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}(_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*81.81818 - (_b[l.klarnerranney] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*39.04762

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}real_pc_in~n{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 2110.988{col 26}{space 2} 624.9896{col 37}{space 1}    3.38{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4} 886.0307{col 67}{space 3} 3335.945
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. 
. qui reg d.klarnerranney  l.klarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.klarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.klarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.klarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l4.d.klarnerranney l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1  i.state_fips  if year >1980 & oldsouth==1
{txt}
{com}. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 63}
       Model {c |}        Obs  ll(null)  ll(model)      df         AIC        BIC
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 63}
{ralign 12:.}{col 14}{c |}{res}{col 16}       270{col 27}-875.4848{col 38}-837.4738{col 49}    27{col 58} 1728.948{col 69} 1826.105
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 63}
{p 15 21 2}
Note: N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see {helpb bic_note:[R] BIC note}.
{p_end}

{com}. 
. 
. ******PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********
. 
. newey d.klarnerranney  l.klarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.klarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.klarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.klarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l4.d.klarnerranney l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1  i.state_fips  if year >1980 & oldsouth==1, lag(5) force

{txt}Regression with Newey-West standard errors{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       270
{txt}maximum lag: {res}5{col 49}{txt}F( 26,       243){col 67}= {res}     10.95
{col 49}{txt}Prob > F{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 17}{c |}{col 29}  Newey-West
{col 1}D.klarnerranney{col 17}{c |}      Coef.{col 29}   Std. Err.{col 41}      t{col 49}   P>|t|{col 57}     [95% Con{col 70}f. Interval]
{hline 16}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 2}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.1885354{col 29}{space 2} .0427357{col 40}{space 1}   -4.41{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} -.272715{col 70}{space 3}-.1043558
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0023511{col 29}{space 2} .0005083{col 40}{space 1}    4.63{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0013499{col 70}{space 3} .0033523
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 2}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0108471{col 29}{space 2} .0542621{col 40}{space 1}    0.20{col 49}{space 3}0.842{col 57}{space 4} -.096037{col 70}{space 3} .1177313
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 12}D1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0010087{col 29}{space 2} .0010839{col 40}{space 1}    0.93{col 49}{space 3}0.353{col 57}{space 4}-.0011264{col 70}{space 3} .0031438
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 2}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 11}L2D. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .1161748{col 29}{space 2} .0806671{col 40}{space 1}    1.44{col 49}{space 3}0.151{col 57}{space 4}-.0427212{col 70}{space 3} .2750707
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0019037{col 29}{space 2} .0017903{col 40}{space 1}    1.06{col 49}{space 3}0.289{col 57}{space 4}-.0016228{col 70}{space 3} .0054302
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 2}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 11}L3D. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0014565{col 29}{space 2} .0427319{col 40}{space 1}    0.03{col 49}{space 3}0.973{col 57}{space 4}-.0827157{col 70}{space 3} .0856288
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 11}L2D. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0026487{col 29}{space 2}  .001484{col 40}{space 1}   -1.78{col 49}{space 3}0.076{col 57}{space 4}-.0055718{col 70}{space 3} .0002744
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 2}klarnerranney {c |}
{space 11}L4D. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} -.220139{col 29}{space 2} .0840722{col 40}{space 1}   -2.62{col 49}{space 3}0.009{col 57}{space 4}-.3857422{col 70}{space 3}-.0545359
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
real_pc_inc_ann {c |}
{space 11}L3D. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0016762{col 29}{space 2} .0014563{col 40}{space 1}    1.15{col 49}{space 3}0.251{col 57}{space 4}-.0011924{col 70}{space 3} .0045447
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 6}gov_party {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-6.329981{col 29}{space 2}  2.03915{col 40}{space 1}   -3.10{col 49}{space 3}0.002{col 57}{space 4}-10.34665{col 70}{space 3}-2.313316
{txt}{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 2.345025{col 29}{space 2} 2.798359{col 40}{space 1}    0.84{col 49}{space 3}0.403{col 57}{space 4}-3.167112{col 70}{space 3} 7.857162
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 4}dem_unified {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 6.795039{col 29}{space 2}  2.30442{col 40}{space 1}    2.95{col 49}{space 3}0.004{col 57}{space 4} 2.255851{col 70}{space 3} 11.33423
{txt}{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-3.207864{col 29}{space 2} 2.858837{col 40}{space 1}   -1.12{col 49}{space 3}0.263{col 57}{space 4}-8.839127{col 70}{space 3} 2.423399
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 4}rep_unified {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-8.248442{col 29}{space 2} 1.879616{col 40}{space 1}   -4.39{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-11.95086{col 70}{space 3}-4.546022
{txt}{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 3.729998{col 29}{space 2}  2.95837{col 40}{space 1}    1.26{col 49}{space 3}0.209{col 57}{space 4}-2.097324{col 70}{space 3} 9.557319
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 1}electedjudges1 {c |}
{space 12}L1. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 3.577768{col 29}{space 2}  1.38623{col 40}{space 1}    2.58{col 49}{space 3}0.010{col 57}{space 4} .8472079{col 70}{space 3} 6.308328
{txt}{space 12}LD. {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-2.147483{col 29}{space 2} 3.412144{col 40}{space 1}   -0.63{col 49}{space 3}0.530{col 57}{space 4}-8.868636{col 70}{space 3}  4.57367
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 5}state_fips {c |}
{space 13}5  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-1.491124{col 29}{space 2} 1.530735{col 40}{space 1}   -0.97{col 49}{space 3}0.331{col 57}{space 4}-4.506326{col 70}{space 3} 1.524078
{txt}{space 12}21  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 4.834712{col 29}{space 2} 1.795178{col 40}{space 1}    2.69{col 49}{space 3}0.008{col 57}{space 4} 1.298615{col 70}{space 3} 8.370808
{txt}{space 12}22  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.7579029{col 29}{space 2} 1.340746{col 40}{space 1}   -0.57{col 49}{space 3}0.572{col 57}{space 4} -3.39887{col 70}{space 3} 1.883064
{txt}{space 12}28  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 3.505839{col 29}{space 2} 1.603667{col 40}{space 1}    2.19{col 49}{space 3}0.030{col 57}{space 4} .3469773{col 70}{space 3}   6.6647
{txt}{space 12}40  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  4.05612{col 29}{space 2}  1.90637{col 40}{space 1}    2.13{col 49}{space 3}0.034{col 57}{space 4} .3010009{col 70}{space 3} 7.811239
{txt}{space 12}45  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  9.62583{col 29}{space 2}  2.48729{col 40}{space 1}    3.87{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} 4.726429{col 70}{space 3} 14.52523
{txt}{space 12}47  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 4.197653{col 29}{space 2} 1.866387{col 40}{space 1}    2.25{col 49}{space 3}0.025{col 57}{space 4} .5212916{col 70}{space 3} 7.874014
{txt}{space 12}54  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-1.291898{col 29}{space 2}  1.54446{col 40}{space 1}   -0.84{col 49}{space 3}0.404{col 57}{space 4}-4.334137{col 70}{space 3}  1.75034
{txt}{space 15} {c |}
{space 10}_cons {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-22.22696{col 29}{space 2}  5.65843{col 40}{space 1}   -3.93{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-33.37279{col 70}{space 3}-11.08113
{txt}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. predict klarnerranneyhatallpost if year>1980 & oldsouth==1
{txt}(option xb assumed; fitted values)
(3,069 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
. * 
. 
. * TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *
. 
. test l.klarnerranney = 0

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  1,   243) ={res}   19.46
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0000
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY)*
. 
. test l.klarnerranney = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}L.klarnerranney - L.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}
{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 2)}{space 1} L.klarnerranney = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  2,   243) ={res}   11.24
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0000
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. * ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *
. 
. lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}D.real_pc_inc_ann + LD.real_pc_inc_ann + L2D.real_pc_inc_ann + L3D.real_pc_inc_ann = 0{p_end}

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}klarnerran~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}(1) {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0019399{col 26}{space 2} .0024077{col 37}{space 1}    0.81{col 46}{space 3}0.421{col 54}{space 4}-.0028028{col 67}{space 3} .0066825
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. * TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *
. 
. nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.klarnerranney]

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.klarnerranney]

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}klarnerran~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0124703{col 26}{space 2} .0016302{col 37}{space 1}    7.65{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0092752{col 67}{space 3} .0156653
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. 
. sum real_pc_inc_ann   if klarnerranneyhatallpost!=. & year > 1980 & oldsouth==1, detail

        {txt}Per Capita Annual Income (1982-1984 Constant
                          Dollars)
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res} 8624.711       8530.043
{txt} 5%    {res} 9523.432       8604.584
{txt}10%    {res}  10065.1       8624.711       {txt}Obs         {res}        270
{txt}25%    {res}  11208.2       9026.411       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}        270

{txt}50%    {res} 12611.42                      {txt}Mean          {res} 12776.18
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res} 1990.397
{txt}75%    {res} 14367.06       16986.17
{txt}90%    {res} 15339.42        17263.1       {txt}Variance      {res}  3961682
{txt}95%    {res} 16033.95       17507.38       {txt}Skewness      {res}    .0862
{txt}99%    {res}  17263.1       17584.98       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 2.270968
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS  OF  real_pc_inc_ann ON klarnerranney:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD 
. 
. 
. nlcom  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.klarnerranney])* 14367.06   -  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.klarnerranney])* 11208.2

       {txt}_nl_1:  {res}(_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.klarnerranney])* 14367.06 - (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.klarnerranney])* 11208.2

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}D.          {col 14}{c |}
{col 1}klarnerran~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_nl_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  39.3919{col 26}{space 2} 5.149435{col 37}{space 1}    7.65{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  29.2992{col 67}{space 3} 49.48461
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. 
. restore
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
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      {txt}name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}C:\Users\mzarit\Documents\Pitt\Krause\December 2016 Work\Log files\Krause_Zarit_Manuscript Models Sans Time Effects_11 29 2016.smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}closed on:  {res}29 Nov 2016, 10:21:43
{txt}{.-}
{smcl}
{txt}{sf}{ul off}